Biden sees surge in Dem backing for 2024 run, with support highest among the young: poll - TheHill

[GGoss]

Biden sees surge in Dem backing for 2024 run, with support highest among the young: poll - TheHill

The number of Democratic voters who think President Biden should be the party’s nominee in 2024 is rising, according to a new Emerson College national survey released on Tuesday.

Seventy-one percent of Democratic voters said Biden should carry the party’s banner in the presidential election next year, up from 58 percent in last month’s Emerson College poll.

Support for Biden to run for a second term is highest among 18- to 34-year-old Democratic voters, with 85 percent of the group saying he should run again. Only 15 percent of 18 to 34-year-old Democratic voters said someone else should be the nominee, according to the survey.

Seventy-two percent of 35- to 49-year-old Democrats said Biden should be the nominee, while 28 percent said it should be someone else. Among 50- to 64-year-old Democratic voters, 61 percent said he should be the nominee, while 39 percent said it should be someone else. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats 65 years and older said he should be the nominee, and 33 percent said it should be someone else.

Link: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3876577-biden-sees-surge-in-dem-support-for-2024-run-with-support-highest-among-the-young-poll/

[hlthe2b]

1. "Support highest among the young..." ahh, the irony...

But, kudos...

[DURHAM D]

2. Wow. Interesting re: 18-34.

[elleng]

3. Seventy-one percent of Democratic voters said Biden should carry the party's banner!

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. No links to sample size , MOE or methodology. Nt

[GGoss]

5. I'll Give You The Poll, But I Ain't Gonna Do Your Homework, LOL

Poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-71-of-democratic-voters-think-biden-should-be-2024-nominee/

[Celerity]

6. Methodology The Emerson College Polling survey of US voters was conducted February 24-25, 2023. The

sample of registered voters, n=1,060, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel.

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Thanks for posting

Suspicious, weasely words in that disclosure, notable for what’s not specified, particularly the MOE for the subset of young people.

Also notable was the disclosure that the poll was conducted via landline IVR or “online panel”; how does one verify the identity/registration of the respondent with those methods? Not many young voters have landlines.

IIRC, Emerson has a high rate of outlier polling results; I don’t recall if they were one of the polling houses flooding the media with shit polls predicting a red wave just before the midterms.

I’m taking this poll with a wheelbarrow full of salt…

[Celerity]

8. the other poster gave you a link that also has a data link, I will give you the direct link

Emerson is A- rated by 538



This poll is good news for us, so I do not understand why you seem to want to discredit it.

Here is the data

direct link

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/ECP_National_2.25.23..xlsx

Here are snapshots of the age cohort-related crosstabs

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Thanks- this data was not accessible from the other link

The data you posted clarifies my skepticism:

The young Dem voter subgroup was only 112 people- approximately 10% of the total sample size. The MOE on a subgroup that small would be huge, I’m guessing 8-10%, but whatever the actual MOE, screaming headlines claiming Young Dems support Biden by a huge margin based on a sample of 112 people is just…bullshit.

The total Dem voter subgroup was only 476 respondents; although the MOE would be better than that of the hound Dem subgroup, it would still be around 5-7%. I would expect a sitting president to do well against a generic “someone else”, but the meaningfulness of this poll is questionable at best.

538’s pollster ratings used to mean something, but after Nate’s steadfast refusal to exclude the October flood of shitty poorly constructed outlier polls (many from highly rated pollsters) from his midterm projection model, resulting in a wholly transparent manipulation of the aggregate polling averages, he lost all credibility with me.

[Celerity]

12. the data was accessible from that poster's link

here is the link they gave you:

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-71-of-democratic-voters-think-biden-should-be-2024-nominee/

and here is a snapshot of the data source at that link:

on the right, 'Full Results'



cheers

[Lonestarblue]

9. I think Biden's extemporaneous cornering of Republicans at his SOTU speech resonated with

a lot of people. He obviously is not senile as Republicans and Fox claim. And he’s obviously in far better physical condition than Trump ever was. He has also accomplished a lot since his inauguration.

[Hortensis]

10. In 2020 Biden support by percentage of those who voted was highest among the young.

In 2022 it dropped substantially, mostly due to economic fallout from the pandemic.

Now, the Democratic-engineered economic recovery is advancing nicely, even though the pandemic and its sequelae continue. Many young people are seeing that a great deal of what the Biden admin's been accomplishing over the past 2 years specifically benefits and invests in them, including lots of good-paying new jobs. And like it.

Of course. Young voters don't belong among Bernie's quasi-"socialists" and grievance-marinated populists just because they claim they do. Reality is,

President Biden's ACCOMPLISHED MORE FOR THE PEOPLE EACH MONTH of his presidency than Bernie Sanders has over his ENTIRE POLITICAL LIFE.

Working together with the nearly 200 principled liberal Democrats who hugely dominate our congressional caucuses.

The Democratic Party's progressive liberalism works and works well when opponents fail to stop it. That's why 81 million LW voters chose it in 2020.

[Celerity]

17. 2022 Midterm exit polls show that young voters drove Democratic resistance to the 'red wave'

https://www.brookings.edu/research/midterm-exit-polls-show-that-young-voters-drove-democratic-resistance-to-the-red-wave/



snip

In order to better understand how Democrats avoided big losses in the 2022 midterms, this analysis examines Democratic minus Republican (D-R) vote margins using 2022 exit polls data and those of earlier elections compiled by Edison Research.[1][2] They show that among people voting for House of Representatives candidates, key demographic groups that traditionally favor Democrats (young people, women, racial minorities, and white female college graduates) played a significant role—but only some of these groups showed as strong or stronger a D-R margin than was the case in the 2020 presidential election or previous midterms. Especially notable among these groups were young adults. In contrast, groups long associated with former President Donald Trump’s base (such as older voters and white male non-college graduates) stayed with Republican candidates. (Comparisons of national group D-R vote margins across recent elections can be found in downloadable Table A.)

This analysis also looks at D-R vote margins for demographic groups in states with competitive Senate or governor’s races. While most national demographic voter patterns hold, there are key differences across states. Some of these are accentuated in elections with strong partisan results, such as the gubernatorial contests in Pennsylvania and Florida. (Demographic groups’ D-R vote margins for select Senate and governor’s elections, respectively, are found in downloadable Table B and downloadable Table C.)

YOUNG PEOPLE, ESPECIALLY YOUNG WOMEN, DROVE THE DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE

Among the youngest Americans, Democrats have held an advantage in votes for House of Representatives candidates in every midterm or presidential election since the late 1990s. Yet in 2022, the 18- to 29-year-old age group (made up of Gen Z and the youngest millennials) showed an even more pronounced shift toward Democrats. It is one of the few demographic groups to show a higher D-R margin in the nationwide House vote than for the 2020 presidential election (D-R value of 28 in 2022, compared to 24 in 2020). This is amplified by the fact that this age group—as in the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election—registered a rise in turnout compared to pre-2018 elections, according to a Tufts University analysis.





Especially important to this youth vote is the contribution of young women. Prior to last week’s election, there was much speculation about how the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would affect women’s voting patterns. The new exit polls show that 47% of female voters felt angry about that decision, and 83% of those women voted for a Democratic candidate. Furthermore, as Figure 2 shows, the D-R vote margin for 18- to 29-year-old women was 46—higher than the margin of 35 in the 2020 presidential election. The D-R vote margin for women ages 30 to 44 was also greater than it was in 2020. It is worth noting that while men overall voted Republican, men ages 18 to 29 showed a positive D-R margin of 12. Among voters over age 45, both men and women were less likely to vote Democratic in 2022 than in 2020. Thus, a good part of the women’s vote for Democrats was accentuated by young people.

snip











snip



also



2022 Election: Young Voters Have High Midterm Turnout, Influence Critical Races




https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center

snip

Youth Turnout Second-Highest in Last Three Decades

We estimate that 27% of youth (ages 18-29) cast a ballot in 2022, making this the midterm election with the second-highest youth voter turnout in almost three decades. We also estimate that youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states. After hovering around 20% turnout in midterm elections since the 1990s, young people shifted that trend in 2018 and largely maintained that trend in 2022, with more than a quarter of young people casting a ballot. Youth are increasing their electoral participation, leading movements, and making their voices heard on key issues that affect their communities. CIRCLE also estimates that, in a group of nine electorally competitive states for which exit poll data is available (FL, GA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, WI), the aggregate youth voter turnout was 31%.

Youth Prefer Democrats by 28-Point Margin

According to the Edison Research National Election Pool exit poll, the national youth vote choice for the U.S. House of Representatives was 63% for Democrats, 35% for Republicans. That’s almost identical to 2020, when youth preferred Democrats to Republicans by 62% to 36%, and a small shift in favor of Republicans from the previous midterm: in 2018, the youth vote between Democrats and Republicans was 67% to 32%—which was the largest margin ever for Democrats among young voters. According to this exit poll data, youth ages 18-29 are the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats. Voters ages 30-44 split their votes nearly evenly 51%-47% between Democrats and Republicans, while older voters favored the GOP. The youth share of all votes cast is 12%, on par with the 13% youth share from the 2018 midterm election. Vote choice and share data may continue to shift in the coming hours.

The Youth Vote in Key Battleground Races

Youth participation and party preference can also vary by state. Based on data from states where exit polls were conducted, here’s what the youth vote choice and youth share of the vote looked like in key electoral battlegrounds. (Note: the youth share of the vote is the percentage of all votes cast in a race that were cast by young people, ages 18-29.) In close elections decided by a few percentage points, young voters’ double-digit vote margin for Democrats can swing a race in which older voters backed the Republican candidate:

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, where Democrat John Fetterman won by a slim 3% margin, youth ages 18-29 preferred Fetterman 70% to 28%, compared to 55% to 42% among voters ages 30-44, with voters over 45 preferring Republican candidate Dr. Oz. In the Wisconsin Governor election, which we had ranked as the #1 race where the youth vote could influence the outcome, Democratic Governor Tony Evers won reelection by a slim margin, 51% to 48%. Young voters gave Evers extraordinary support: 70% vs. 30% for Republican challenger Tim Michels. Voters 30-44 also preferred Evers by a slimmer 55% to 44% margin, while voters over 45 backed the GOP candidate. In the Georgia Senate race that will go to a runoff election, with less than 1% separating the candidates, youth backed Democratic incumbent Senator Warnock 63% to 34%. Voters ages 30-44 backed Warnock 56% to 41%, while voters over 45 gave a majority of their votes to GOP challenger Herschel Walker. Notably, the youth share of the vote in Georgia was 13%, slightly higher than the national rate.

snip

[republianmushroom]

13. You deserve it Joe.

Congrats

[brooklynite]

14. No "right wing rag" complaints?

[GGoss]

16. LOL !!!

Shhh...

[ananda]

15. I'm behind Joe 100%!

!!!

[DownriverDem]

18. Now we need to

unite and work on the House, Senate and state/local offices. That's how we move forward.

[SouthernDem4ever]

19. Absolutely cool how our upcoming generation recognizes the importance of

good governance and intelligence. Gives me hope. Here's to Biden's continued good health!