Speculation: Kacsmaryk has a back channel to 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

[Girard442]

I'm speculating that they told him they won't uphold a full-on mifepristone prohibition, so he's looking to punt in such a way that doesn't get him reversed but also not lynched by forced-birthers.

[mopinko]

1. the jig is up.

it’s gotten obvious to everyone what’s goin on here. they need to cool it for a while.
they’ll be back.

[euphorb]

2. That seems very unlikely.

An appeal would be heard by a randomly chosen panel of three judges (chosen at the time the appeal is filed). The panel is chosen from among the 17 active judges on the Fifth Circuit and whoever among the 9 senior status judges are still hearing cases. So it would be impossible to know in advance which three judges would hear an appeal. Furthermore, a judgment on appeal would depend on the specific facts and law as developed in the trial court, in other words, an examination of the entire case file. Judges cannot tell you in advance how they would rule on a case.

[dpibel]

3. Not so much these days

The Bremerton prayer on the football field case did not depend on the specific facts and law as developed in the trial court. Gorsuch made up a set of facts that was quite at odds with the facts below.

And it's a bit charming to think that Alito could not have told you in advance how he and his chums were going to rule in Dobbs. That was an opinion waiting for a case.