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Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:28 AM Mar 2023

Ukraine War watchers- Is Russia setting up invasion of Odessa?

Obviously much of the attention on the war has been on the strategically questionable battle of Bakhmut. Western reporting has made much of the tiny gains relative to the huge costs for Wagner Group and the regular Russian forces.

But while this has been going on, there have been reports of Russia refurbishing amphibious assault ships, including the launching of a new ship, and the restoration from mothballs of hundreds of amphibious fighting vehicles.

I need some talking down.

In recent days there have been reports of Russian forces evacuating the Kherson region toward Crimea. Retreat or regroup to points in Crimea which could be departure sites for an Odessa invasion?

Yes there have been reports from "former" Russian commanders that it "cannot sustain the western front". Is this trustworthy or is disinformation hiding Russia's real intent?

And, of course, there is now reporting of Russians taking down an American surveillance drone west of Crimea. Just where we need eyes in the sky to detect the organization of a new seaborne offensive along Russia's western salient to Odessa.

I admit that my thinking risks attempting to connect too many dots. One must guard against creating a monster thru imagination that doesn't exist.

But, I have to say that I look at this, and I see a mighty reason for Ukraine, and its western allies, to reinforce the Odessa region so that it is capable of fending off an invasion of the tremendously attractive target of Odessa.

Such a Russian offensive would cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and connect the Russian land-bridge from Mariupol to the Russian sympathethic/breakaway Maldovan Transnistra. That would be a strategic disaster for Ukraine, losing the coastline on the Black Sea and allowing Russian penetration deep into western Ukraine.

Ok, so Ukraine is holding down Wagner Group in Bakhmut, but that also holds down Ukraine. Are there sufficient forces in Ukraine deployed to the Odessa Oblast to prevent an amphibious end-run of the mouth of the Dneiper and Ukrainian liberated Kherson???



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Ukraine War watchers- Is Russia setting up invasion of Odessa? (Original Post) Model35mech Mar 2023 OP
Russian forces can barely cross rivers. bluedigger Mar 2023 #1
In the past year, that's true. But as I say, reports are things are changing Model35mech Mar 2023 #2
Why is Russia building shore defenses in Crimea? bluedigger Mar 2023 #4
Thats really just disparagement Model35mech Mar 2023 #6
Well, so far, MarineCombatEngineer Mar 2023 #7
As battles go, the preparation is everything. Blocking forces hundreds of km Model35mech Mar 2023 #8
Thanks for the reply, MarineCombatEngineer Mar 2023 #12
... orangecrush Mar 2023 #15
From what I've read... WarGamer Mar 2023 #20
More like utter contempt for Russia's military "doctrine". bluedigger Mar 2023 #10
Yes, Russia turning to old equipment, and yes Model35mech Mar 2023 #13
Damn straight orangecrush Mar 2023 #16
Russia surely wants Odessa and the rest of UKRs Black Sea coast but... dutch777 Mar 2023 #3
Well, that's the thing about sea-assault. Patton did same twice in Sicily Model35mech Mar 2023 #5
If you can ask it here, I'm pretty sure generals and Intel have considered the possibility. haele Mar 2023 #9
Civilians also scratched their heads about what they read re the Somme Model35mech Mar 2023 #14
Putin is furious and humiliated at this point. He could certainly stage a dramatic/bold operation. Irish_Dem Mar 2023 #11
I don't see any real, measurable evidence Moscow can project the force necessary Torchlight Mar 2023 #17
I hope you're right, of course only time will tell. Model35mech Mar 2023 #18
The first casualty of war is the truth. Xolodno Mar 2023 #19
About the amphibious fighting vehicles EX500rider Mar 2023 #21

bluedigger

(17,077 posts)
1. Russian forces can barely cross rivers.
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:37 AM
Mar 2023

They show no capability for the logistics necessary to land and support an amphibious force of the size needed to capture and control a major urban center.

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
2. In the past year, that's true. But as I say, reports are things are changing
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:39 AM
Mar 2023

The past is not the future. It is the place whose mistakes are stepped over.

Why does Russian want refurbished amphibious assault ship and hundreds of amphibious fighting vehicles.

bluedigger

(17,077 posts)
4. Why is Russia building shore defenses in Crimea?
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:50 AM
Mar 2023

The Russian war machine is a collection of grifters looking for advantage at the expense of their cobelligerents. They have already expended much of their naval infantry in frontal assaults near Vuhledar. At best, this is a ploy to force Ukraine to divert resources from their anticipated Spring offensive.

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
6. Thats really just disparagement
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:03 AM
Mar 2023

The biggest threat to any defending nation is to disparage and underestimate the force it faces.

The Ukrainian Spring offensive is expected by most western 'experts' to be a thrust from Zaporizhzia to Mariupol and if successful tothe Black Sea Coast. That suggests Ukraine may place much of its offensive forces hundreds of miles from Odessa.

An amphibious assault on Odessa avoids confrontation with that force, and makes it irrelevant to the defense of the Black Sea coast from Mykolaiv to Odessa.

Hence my concern with the threat I see developing

MarineCombatEngineer

(12,092 posts)
7. Well, so far,
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:07 AM
Mar 2023

Ukraine has shown a remarkable ability to counter Russian offensives, and I expect that if what you're thinking is proven, then Ukraine will counter that also, besides, I'm quite sure that Ukraine is well aware of what's going on because western intelligence are keeping them informed.

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
8. As battles go, the preparation is everything. Blocking forces hundreds of km
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:12 AM
Mar 2023

away from where they are needed is a problem for preparation.

Generals, just like civilians can get tunnel vision. Zelinsky has become tremendously focused on Bakhmut in the Donbass.
He's been open to his military leaders, although there has been some remarkable shuffling in the political control of the Ukrainian military in recent weeks.

I do hope he's still open to thoughtful consideration and and preparing for the 'what if's' and 'possiblies'.



MarineCombatEngineer

(12,092 posts)
12. Thanks for the reply,
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:22 AM
Mar 2023

I did spend 35 years in the Marines, so I know full well what you say is true, but, as I said, Ukraine has shown a very uncanny ability to counter Russian moves.

WarGamer

(12,106 posts)
20. From what I've read...
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 07:54 PM
Mar 2023

Ukraine obviously has limited numbers of soldiers.

If Russia merely sends 25k troops... or even a mix of Russian conscripts and Belarus soldiers to the border north of Kyiv, Ukraine can't move troops away from that area.

If Russia masses or APPEARS to mass in Crimea to make a move on Odessa, Ukraine can't afford to take soldiers from the area.

Right now, according to the Belfer Center at Harvard, Russia has over 340k troops in Ukraine, more than double the initial invasion force.

From a strategic angle... Russia can prevent a focused and concentrated Ukrainian counter attack just by keeping multiple geographical threats alive.

From a war analysis POV, it's all interesting to watch.

IMHO, Ukraine needs to take advantage of their battlefield prowess with fast aggressive movements... meatgrinder engagements are not sustainable.

Russia holds a clear advantage in artillery so static engagements favor the Russians.

So move fast... fast coordinated skillful moves.

bluedigger

(17,077 posts)
10. More like utter contempt for Russia's military "doctrine".
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:18 AM
Mar 2023

Russia failed in it's initial attempts to take Kiev by air assault, and has never shown any aptitude for amphibious operations that I am aware of. A 10-1 advantage in air power has resulted in zero control of the skies. Russian naval prowess is well documented. Whatever "refurbished" assets they have are Soviet era vessels and equipment that I wouldn't want to risk in a bath tub, personally. (That's disparagement, lol.) I think any amphibious vehicles are being prepped to evacuate Crimea. They are going to need them for that, probably sooner than anyone thinks.

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
13. Yes, Russia turning to old equipment, and yes
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:33 AM
Mar 2023

Russia lacks a history of successful large scale amphibious assaults

But the same can really be said of US forces in Africa and Europe. Statistically speaking, the little experience the US had in Morraco, Sicily and the Italian peninsula left a lot to be desired for the odds-placers.

The information civilians like you and I find really are very inadequate bits and pieces. That info gives scant information about place and almost no information about the intenstity of fighting even at those locations. What is given is obviously colored by careful choice of what is shared. It's impossible to know the things that must be known, and which we hope is known by Ukraine
.

orangecrush

(19,236 posts)
16. Damn straight
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 03:31 PM
Mar 2023


"The biggest threat to any defending nation is to disparage and underestimate the force it faces"

dutch777

(2,871 posts)
3. Russia surely wants Odessa and the rest of UKRs Black Sea coast but...
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:43 AM
Mar 2023

...hard to believe they could mount and sustain such an operation at the far end of their supply lines and with any ships close to the coast subject to Ukraine's anti ship missile batteries. They took out the best ship in the Black Sea fleet. Amphibious ships would be sitting ducks unless RU could effectively suppress the missiles and RU air power is almost completely impotent. The strategic interest you note relative to Moldova is a good point but unless RU forces suddenly become far more capable and supplies less of an issue, it seems a bridge too far.

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
5. Well, that's the thing about sea-assault. Patton did same twice in Sicily
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 10:56 AM
Mar 2023

in WWII.

It's NOT impossible that having faced a block going west of Kherson the Russians choose an alternative approach. An amphibious invasion is certainly an alternative.

Can they pull it off any better than the rest of their original offensive? Well, that's entirely a question to be decided on a battlefield. If Ukraine isn't prepared for it, it would be much easier for the Russians.

haele

(12,581 posts)
9. If you can ask it here, I'm pretty sure generals and Intel have considered the possibility.
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:18 AM
Mar 2023

Western Military doctrine is that one considers the probability of everything based on intelligence received, including the probability of feinting and flanking maneuvers.

So one can only wait and see.

Haele

Model35mech

(1,415 posts)
14. Civilians also scratched their heads about what they read re the Somme
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:43 AM
Mar 2023

That turned out to be for good reason.

"If you see something say something" only applies to terrorism? I think that's not true.

Most of military doctrine is about practicalities that even civilians can anticipate if they know the pieces in play. We hope the generals and admirals appreciate the implications of their better understanding about quality, quantity and placement of the forces around which they make practical plans.

Irish_Dem

(45,638 posts)
11. Putin is furious and humiliated at this point. He could certainly stage a dramatic/bold operation.
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 11:22 AM
Mar 2023

PS to Model 35: The second we stop connecting dots, we are sunk.

Torchlight

(3,236 posts)
17. I don't see any real, measurable evidence Moscow can project the force necessary
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 03:54 PM
Mar 2023

Last edited Wed Mar 15, 2023, 06:31 PM - Edit history (1)

via an amphib assault. Their Black Sea fleet has made no major sorties and has been rendered impotent since summer last year to avoid another flagship being blown up.

The Russian air-force, a necessary component of any sea-born invasion has never achieved anything close to even parity in the air, let alone air command, and generally been noted only by its relative absence (most likely due (my guess only) to lack of flying hours for Russian pilots as well as the critical shortage of precision-guided munitions).


Both the Hudson Institute and CSIS conclude that as it stands, Russia (and specifically its Black Sea Fleet) simply does not have the logistical capacity or throughput to engage in a seaborne assault of the magnitude it would require.

Xolodno

(6,334 posts)
19. The first casualty of war is the truth.
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 06:16 PM
Mar 2023

And the biggest danger, is our own hubris, for example;

"The boys will be home by Christmas", General MacArthur.

"The North cannot launch another offensive", then Tet Offensive happened.

"We will, in fact be greeted as liberators", former VP, Dick Cheney.

I know we are being lied to about the casualties, capabilities, etc. Ukraine needs tanks, because they are out of them. Poland is giving them MiG 29's, again, because they running out of them (and it wasn't too long ago that the idea of Poland giving them the planes and the US replacing Poland's donation was squashed, something happened since then).

And of course, we keep hearing about Russia's new offensive or perhaps its started but its not going anywhere, etc. What it really tells me, they haven't started it yet...or know if they plan on doing one at all. They still have a lot of forces parked in Belarus and Crimea. Whatever their intentions are, we don't know. They could make another go at Kiev, surprise attack Odessa or just sit put and maintain what they captured since that included a chunk of their natural gas fields.

And we also hear about Ukraine's new planned counter offensive, but I'm also reading that they may not have too much capability to do that again.

We obviously over estimated their capabilities at the beginning. But it will be disastrous to underestimate them later. And the way some talk here, you think the Russian army is using sling shots, that kind of thinking will lead to defeat.

EX500rider

(10,531 posts)
21. About the amphibious fighting vehicles
Wed Mar 15, 2023, 08:50 PM
Mar 2023

That would be the BTR 50, first produced in 1954.

The reason Russia is taking those out of mothballs is because they've run out of regular armored personnel carriers.

They are not at all suitable for blue water amphibious invasions, they're designed to cross calm rivers.

The vehicle's low freeboard of 15 to 20 cm and lack of a snorkel means that it can only swim in the calmest waters.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BTR-50

Plus there be tons of advanced notice of an amphibious invasion, they'd have to gather lots of troops and armored vehicles at ports and load them on ships all visible from satellite, Ukrainians would have lots of time to reinforce.

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