As Xi visits Russia, Putin sees his anti-U.S. world order taking shape

[Celerity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/19/putin-xi-russia-china-world-order/

https://archive.is/9u7DR


Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin enter a hall for talks at the Kremlin on June 5, 2019. Xi is due to arrive in Russia on Monday for a state visit.

RIGA, Latvia — For Vladimir Putin, the state visit to Russia by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which begins on Monday, provides a giant morale boost and a chance to showcase the much-vaunted new world order that the Russian leader believes he is forging through his war on Ukraine — in which the United States and NATO can no longer dictate anything to anyone.

Xi’s visit to Russia, just after cementing his precedent-breaking third term in power, brings together two men who have positioned themselves as leaders for life — and it sets the scene for global confrontation, with Beijing willing to use its partnership with Moscow to counter Washington, even if that means granting tacit approval to Putin’s brutal, destabilizing war. “The grim outlook in China is that we are entering this era of confrontation with the U.S., the gloves are off, and Russia is an asset and a partner in this struggle,” said Alexander Gabuev, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

It remains to be seen whether this confrontation will heat up, pushing three nuclear powers to the brink of World War III, or merely marks the opening chords of Cold War 2.0. But Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies — in a competition for global influence and for alliances with nations such as South Africa and Saudi Arabia, which seem ambivalent but up for grabs.

In an article published Sunday evening in China’s People’s Daily, Putin gushed about the brotherly friendship between Russia and China, which he said were standing “shoulder to shoulder,” including against Western hegemony. “Sticking more stubbornly than ever to its obsolete dogmata and vanishing dominance, the ‘Collective West’ is gambling on the fates of entire states and peoples,” Putin wrote. “The U.S.’s policy of simultaneously deterring Russia and China, as well as all those who do not bend to the American dictation, is getting ever more fierce and aggressive.” He also warned that NATO is “seeking to penetrate the Asia-Pacific.”

snip

[roamer65]

1. Russia will soon be a vassal state of China.

…and Siberia will soon be Chinese.

https://www.escapeartist.com/blog/chinese-siberia/

[PortTack]

2. Exactly...not the world order Poopin had in mind!

[roamer65]

3. The winner of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

CHINA.

[Beastly Boy]

4. it's way too early to speculate on the future of any grand alliances in Asia.

Especially when the proposed alliance involves China, Russia and Iran but omits Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Just looking at these three proposed allies, their weight in the alliance is out of balance. Neither Russia nor Iran are China's co-equals by any means. From the onset, should the alliance materialize, which is an iffy proposition to begin with (historically, Russia is notorious for making shaky coalitions with its neighbors that tend to disintegrate in relatively short periods of time), this inequality guarantees long lasting and irreconcilable frictions within this alliance. The interests of the three countries are incompatible culturally, politically and economically. They have radically different faith bases: Christianity, Islam, and an eclectic mix of Taoism/Confucianism/Buddhism/Atheism.

The only thing they have in common and would hold such coalition together is their opposition to the US/Europe as a dominant world power. And this common interest contains the seed of inevitable disintegration of this alliance. Should they succeed in making the US a second-rate superpower, their only common interest disappears. So the only way to maintain the alliance is to fail in their quest.

[PufPuf23]

8. There already are grand alliances in Asia.

IMO not a good idea in practice to underestimate adversity.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic, International security and defense organization. It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 60% of the area of Eurasia, 40% of the world population, and more than 30% of global GDP.[3]

The SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five, formed in 1996 between the People's Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan.[4] On 15 June 2001, the leaders of these nations and Uzbekistan met in Shanghai to announce a new organization with deeper political and economic cooperation; the SCO Charter was signed on 7 July 2002 and entered into force on 19 September 2003. Its membership has since expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan joining on 9 June 2017. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners.

[Note that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Iran, Mongolia, Afghanistan, and 6 other countries are in observer or dialogue status]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation

BRIC

BRIC is a grouping acronym referring to the developing countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which are identified as rising economic powers. It is typically rendered as "the BRIC," "the BRIC countries," "the BRIC economies," or alternatively as the "Big Four." The name has since been changed to BRICS after the addition of South Africa in 2010.

The term was coined by economist Jim O'Neill in 2001 as an acronym for the four countries he identified as being at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development.[1][2][3][4] In 2009, the leaders of the four countries held their first summit and in 2010 BRIC became a formal institution.[5] South Africa began efforts to join the BRIC grouping and received an invitation on December 24, 2010.[6] O'Neill commented to the 2010 summit that South Africa, at a population of under 50 million people, was just too small as an economy to join the BRICS ranks.[7]

The original aim of BRICS was the establishment of an equitable, democratic and multi-polar world order,[5] but later BRICS became a political organization, especially after South Africa joined.[8]

The economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China is such that they could become among the four most dominant economies by 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O'Neill, global economist at Goldman Sachs.[9] These countries encompass over 25% of the world's land coverage and 40% of the world's population and hold a combined GDP (PPP) of $20 trillion. On almost every scale, they would be the largest entity on the global stage. These four countries are among the biggest and fastest-growing emerging markets.{Incal 2011}

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC

[Beastly Boy]

10. Commonwealth of Independent States is hardly grand.

Of the member states, India and Pakistan, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, have had recurring violent border disputes. The combined GDP of the member states other than China is 1/3 of China's GDP (https://tradingeconomics.com/). And observer states have no say at all in how the organization is being run. This organization is more of China's fiefdom than anything else.

And BRIC is not an organization at all. It's just an acronym for the five largest developing countries that doesn't signify any cooperation between them.

[Xolodno]

5. They are probably working out closer trade ties.

Russia will be China's gas station and other natural resource provider and Iran just announced they found the second largest lithium deposit. So they will be provider for raw materials to China for chips.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/iran-says-its-discovered-worlds-second-largest-lithium-deposit.html

Oh and Russia will have the man power, over 2 Million Ukrainians fled to Russia at the start of the war (well, to be fair, citizens but were probably Russian the entire time).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/#:~:text=Nearly%202.9%20million%20refugees%20from,refugees%20were%20registered%20across%20Europe.

China will make the goods and then resell them back to Russia and Iran (but probably work together on military equipment). Oh and no doubt, other non-Western aligned nations. This is an alliance of economics, not just one dimensional "oppose the West". China isn't going to do someone's war fantasy where they betray Russia and retake lost territory and then some. There both armed nuclear nations, much better to work together than fight.

Bush's military adventurism in Iraq, ignoring Afghanistan was a major blunder. We lost credibility in the world and the rise of ISIS/L really made a mess. Libya is also still a mess as Europe can't figure out what to do with it. And Syria is now on the mend as some Arab states are reopening their embassies with them. Then you add Trump's "trade wars are easy to win" style of economics, uhm...yeah.

Brazil and Argentina are moving closer with economic ties (and trying to work with other South and Central American nations).

And of course, you got Turkey and Arab states playing both sides.

The Cold War it seemed practically ended overnight. It didn't. There was structural economic failure happening for about a decade, until, the system just collapsed on itself. And I'm thinking we'll soon see the end of the Uni-Polar world and the birth of a multi-polar. But I don't think there will be a "the fall of the Berlin wall" day when it happens. It will be more of a whimper when a new group of policy makers in a meeting realize the gig is up and its time to start working with the new environment. Probably when a few more nations acquire nukes as its shown, it guarantee's survival of your nation.

[Celerity]

6. I agree with this cogent, well-put analysis

[Beastly Boy]

11. Nicely put. China doesn't require territorial takeover to dominate the region.

In this respect, international borders are irrelevant. China can project on its spheres of influence by economic means alone.

[GoCubsGo]

7. Xi is trying to play the hero to cover his own ass.

He thinks he's going to swoop in and negotiate a peace deal, in an attempt to deflect from the atrocities he has been committing in his own country. What they're not mentioning is that Xi is supposed to meet with Zelensky in a few days. Too bad for Xi that Ukraine is not interested in a deal. They wan Russia the fuck out of their country. Period. The end.

[Crunchy Frog]

9. I'm thinking that he's hoping this war will weaken both US and russia.

Leaving China in a much stronger global position.