Long, Hot Summer

[H2O Man]

For people of my generation, "long, hot summer" is a phrase with specific meaning from 1967. The news, especially regarding the federal grand jury looking into the stolen documents meeting again, suggests that the phrase may take on new meaning for the defendent's cult. Let's take a look at why, shall we?

In doing so, I think that it provides a firm answer to those who are saying, "We've been burned before." No, you have not. It is not unusual for any of us to have elevated expectations based upon our beliefs of what is "right" and what is "wrong." I did when Patrick Fitzgerald was investigating the Plame scandal. But reality snuck in.

I remember telling my late uncle that, while I am opposed to people allowing the decaying flesh of a swine to enter the sacred temple of their body, I thought Patrick would cook Dick Cheney in a national pig roast. He said I needed to understand that a federal prosecutor will not seek an indictment on any case with less than a 95% chance of conviction. That as long as Scooter Libby kept his mouth shut, Cheney would skate.

I said if Patrick brought very seriious charges, and Scooter faced decades of incarceration, it would loosen his lips. He said that I needed to remember the "Capone rule" ..... that a good prosecutor goes with the charges most likely to secure a conviction that will not be overturned on appeal. Plus, he said, Libby knows that he will almost certainly be pardoned, or he wouldn't be so cocky.

In the weeks between the grand jury's meetings, Jack Smith's team has most likely composed the final draft of indictments on the case of the stolen classified documents. Assuming that media reports are correct regarding how much evidence his team has, there is a very good chance that they will present the grand jury with those indictments that they are convinced has the 95-plus percent chance of convictions that stand up against appeal. It does take time to present indictments to the grand jury, of course.

We know that the defendent's legal team made a pathetic appeal to the Attorney General for a meeting to discuss their plea for him to stop Jack Smith from going after the defendent. This suggests that they have recently heard from the prosecutor about the defendent's status. And that suggests that the defndent is in for a long, hot summer.

[Elessar Zappa]

1. Yup.

He’s going to be charged, of that I’m sure. Good post!

[H2O Man]

5. It sure does

look that way. It should be an interesting summer.

[2naSalit]

2. Unusual...

I agree with what you propose will be the series of events to come, this stuff takes time.

But the video you posted set off a wave of musical memories of the 60s regarding heat and summer, particularly this one from the first summer that I ever lived in a city...

[H2O Man]

6. Great song!

There was so much outstanding music in that era. I was back in the very rural area where I grew up yesterday -- my friend from age four on was getting married -- and we were remembering the old days.

[LoisB]

3. Thank you.

[H2O Man]

7. Thank you!

[malthaussen]

4. I remeber how Watergate kept metastitizing.

I think that there are so many layers of complexity to Mr Trump's (apparent) treason, so many links to other plots and politicians, ultimately just so damn much to this whole thing, that the prosecutors haven't been able to find a cutoff point to say "let's go with these charges."

The case for Mr Trump unlawfully retaining government documents is virtually open-and-shut. But that is no doubt trivial in comparison to all he has done, and how many other people helped him, who should also be indicted. I don't know much about prosecutorial procedure, so it seems to me they could have indicted Mr Trump on the slam-dunk and still pursued investigations into the rest of the criminal web. But this has not been the case, so what I think makes sense must not, for some reason.

I think it's difficult to ensure a 95% chance of conviction, because if charges go to court, it will be up to a jury to decide, and it would only take one die-hard cult member on the jury to invalidate the whole process. Can an unbiased jury be ensured? When maybe 25-30% of our countrymen would support Trump under any circumstances, no matter what he did?

I think that the DoJ will eventually bring an indictment, and that it will be a very interesting document indeed. I very much hope that Donald Trump's name will not be the only one on it. There are quite a few names I am convinced should be on it, although proving their treason (or subversion, if you please) at a 95% rate might be the sticking point.

-- Mal

[H2O Man]

10. It does seem to me

that even without some of the things recently reported, that the defendent could have been indicted on at least two charges per the documents and relatively easily convicted. But it seems to me -- and I am just speculating -- that they are looking into the possibility of charging him with espionage, too. If that is so -- and Mr. Smith's background experience has always struck me as why AG Garland picked him -- that would fully explain why there has been a longer investigation -- even if the defendent isn't so charged.

Another issue that I suspect has taken time is for the DoJ to prepare for potential reactions from maga extremists. That would have to include coordination with state law enforcement, as the AG is fully aware that, like with Tim McVeigh, there are potential targets beyond DC.

The chances of others being indicted on the documents is very real. I think that several of those around the defendent have recognized they are targets, and their legal teams have sought to negotiate deals with the prosecutors. That would seem to fit with the defendent's legal team believing that there is a "rat" among them, especially since several testified to the grand jury.

[kentuck]

16. Makes sense.

If he is charged with espionage, they have some serious stuff on him, would be my guess.

I do not see how they can help but indict him for contempt and obstruction for keeping the documents from the Government and lying about possessing them.

Does the GJ only require a simple majority?

[H2O Man]

18. Right.

I was talking to an old friend recently, who is now retired from the military. He said that this isn't just about protecting democracy, it is about saving the Constitution. That the main body defines a republic, and the amendments -- particularly the Bill of Rights -- protects democracy. He thinks that the defendent's behaviors per January 6 meet the standard for treason.

Federal grand juries, under the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, require a simple majority, rather than a unanimous decision.

[Hekate]

28. "Simple majority" -- thank God for that.

Trump is a cancer. Trumpism and Trumpistas are symptoms of the spread.

[H2O Man]

30. I have no doubt

that Jack Smith will get unanimous verdicts from the grand jury. He will explain the law for each charge, review the evidence, and the jurors will determine that the defendent most likely violated the specific law.

[mercuryblues]

12. A reason why trump gets away with so much stuff

is he can't stop

criming.

Take the stolen docs.

He took them, then played hide and seek with the FBI for months with them. Some have still not been found. They know that he made copies. How many copies? 1, 100, 500? Who else was involved?

Who did he sell them to? Does he still have doc/copies? will he try to use those as a get out of jail free card?

All this while he is being investigated for other things.

So much so, who remembers he was impeached for soliciting a foreign government to help him win reelection. Obstruction of justice and abuse of power?

[H2O Man]

14. Well said.

Very well said. The defendent may or may not be indicted for espionage. But the DoJ surely has to investigate exactly who he shared them with, and showed them to. That's why AG Garland picked Jack Smith ..... it is certain the, at the very least, the documents involved intelligence, both from and about other countries. It seems very likely that some of these include classified material about the investigation of his 2016 campaign's connections with Russia.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

8. Summer '67? I remember reading about the riots in Detroit, photos of tanks on freeway bridges.

Read about it in the Stars and Stripes newspaper, wondering WTF. That's how I found out what a "blind pig" was.

[H2O Man]

13. It was a wild time in America.

The powers-that-be believed it was leading to a more wide-spread revolution. I was recently talking about it with my sons, and one asked why they just didn't see Martin Luther King, Jr., as an acceptable alternative to cooperate with on bringing about meaningful change? I said that on the surface, that's a great question ...... but if one listens to or reads King's April 4, 1967 speech "A Time to Break Silence" (aka "Beyong Vietnam&quot and then reads the communications between the FBI and White House, you see that they feared the direction King was heading in. He had moved far beyond lunch counters and public water fountains.

[Kid Berwyn]

9. 1983...(A Merman I Should Turn to Be)

Lock him up.



“Forever was the main complaint.”

[H2O Man]

11. Thanks!

That is still one of my favorite songs, all these years later. It has some of the most beautiful poetry from that era.

[Kid Berwyn]

15. You are most welcome, Brother Sir.

Whenever I need to pick up from whatever sling or arrow’s prick, I will call that tune and twin LP up in my mind.

“I can hear Atlantis full of cheer.”

It never fails.

You probably know this one, but if you don’t have one I’d love to personally bring you a copy:



Cymbal and snares.

[H2O Man]

24. Nice!

Although I have various versions of the songs there, it might be different. I'll check and see. I do have a significant collection og Jimi's work, though my older son has most of the LPs now. I have the CDs, but my old record player shit the bed, so my son can hold on the records until I get another.

[Saoirse9]

17. Great essay as always

I am curious about something and I hope you don’t mind giving your opinion.

They say that Jack Smith never leaks, and yet in the past few weeks we’re learning about all kinds of things that one would think could only come from Smith or trump, people inside the investigation. For example that a specific document is missing and that this document is discussed in a taped conversation with trump and his legal team as well as other people who had no business hearing about the classified information contained in the document.

Where are these leaks coming from?

I am seeing loads of speculation that we will see indictments in the next week to 10 days. I certainly hope that’s true but I wonder why people have come up with this timeline. Is it because the grand jury is meeting this week after a long break?

I also see some discussion of exactly what another trump presidency would look like. And it scares me enough to want to leave the country if indeed it does happen. We’ve discussed Portugal as it seems to be a good place and affordable.

I have considered at the least, moving to a bluer area of Florida. I feel like we’re in a make or break period of American politics. Either trumpism is defeated on 2024 once and for all or we become an even more unsafe country to live in. And I feel like that means I have to move away, as old and tired as I am. Less than 2 years away from retirement and I am scared!

[H2O Man]

19. Good questions.

Those investigating the defendent are surrounded by co-workers who are not on the case, and it could be one or more of them talking to the media. More, people much older than you -- like myself -- remember Carl Bernsein reporting in the 1970s about the number of intelligence people embedded in the media. These days, of course, a number of people with connections to law enforcement & intelligence are openly in the media, and they have access to people in the DoJ that work near Smith's team.

[Saoirse9]

20. think we will see indictments this week? n/t

[H2O Man]

21. Not this week.

If the prosecutors even introduce two indictments this week, they will go through them in great detail with the grand jury. Closer to mid-June, if they are filed unsealed.

[Saoirse9]

22. Thanks

[H2O Man]

23. You are most welcome!

I think that I had called it fairly close when Jack Smith was appointed.

[spanone]

25. 👍🏼...K&R...👍🏼

Thanks H2O Man

[H2O Man]

26. Thank you!

I will speculate that the defendent will engage in a series of public melt-downs throughout the long, hot summer.

[Easterncedar]

27. I am always grateful for your perspective

I really want to be optimistic. Watching Orange Julius melt down over the hot summer seems a very painful prospect for us all, however. I just want this nightmare to be over.

But then Kissinger, Cheney and Bush still walk, unbowed by any sense of responsibility for 10s of thousands, 100s of thousands of deaths laid directly at their door. It’s hard to have faith in justice.

[H2O Man]

31. Thank you!

On one hand, I will watch the defendent's melt-downs with a detached interest ..... he reminds me of some of the sociopaths that I dealt with in the county jail group, or individually on parole from state prison. Perhaps the most significant difference between him and them would be social class, based upon family of origin's economic status. He fears being humiliated publicly as a result.

On the other hand, it does concern me that maga cult members will be at increased risk of acting out. I don't think there will be another J6, or that there will not be the needed security around the federal courts, etc. Possibly some lone wolf-type things. But more likely, in my opinion, will be an increase in conflicts in places such as grocery store parking lots, where on edge creeps initiate fights.

I remember years ago, on this very forum, I called Kissinger a war criminal. Someone else said that I was wrong -- Henry had never been convicted in court. My response was simple: if a man murders someone, but is never caught, tried, and convicted, does that in any way mean that he is not a murderer? I think it is that concrete thinking that prevents justice, and allows for even some Democrats to meet with the still-breathing corpse of Henry, or pretend that George W. and Cheney can be welcomed with open arms.

[Easterncedar]

33. I'll try to remain hopeful

I don’t have enough lifespan left for a long view, but despair helps no one!

[Hekate]

29. Thanks as always for your thoughtful perspective. I do remember how very long Watergate took...

I’m old now, and by this time find it hard to gin up any patriotic fervor. It was the definitive rot of the Trump presidency that finally did it, and the ghastly backlash against all things liberal brought about by us having the temerity to elect a Black POTUS before Trump.

I’d elect Barack Obama all over again in a minute, if 2008 rolled back. Damn the backlash, full speed ahead.

I have no plans to leave my little spot on the Central Coast — I have what I want here, and as I said, I’m old now. But I surely would love to see Trump and his minions in prison. I’d like to see the 3 branches of Federal government give Democracy one more try.

[H2O Man]

32. Thanks!

I was participating in a conversation with a small group of old friends last week, about Watergate, etc. We all agreed that time went much slower when we were young -- and Watergate actually did take an eternity. And that 40 lb bags of garden soil are now three times heavier than they were when we were young. Perhaps the best thing about old age is one learns patience -- or else experiences frustration over things they have zero control over.

President Obama ranks, in my opinion, among the top most significant presidents in history. The defendent ranks as the very worst.

If I never had to leave my home & property again, I'd be happy. Actually, in most ways, I am at a very pleasant stage in my life. True, I have to remember to go to one medical appointment each year, which seems a tad too often to me. But since learning I was going to be a grandfather, I started preparing, and am overall in better shape than I've been in two decades. He's nine moths old now, and lives close enough that I see him 3 to 6 times per week. He has a routine of things he enjoys doing in each room in the house, and really loves going out to see the various plants and animals. I recently posted a film clip of his laughter (on FB) when I demonstated how to blow the pappus off dandelions, as I am convinced that society needs to experience the magic of a little one's laughter.

[Easterncedar]

34. Yes and yes to all of that

A friend’s little granddaughter did the tour of my garden recently, pronouncing happy judgement on the fragrance of each flower. It was a sweet and peaceful interlude.

[ExWhoDoesntCare]

35. Huh. I always thought 1967 was the Summer of Love

While it was 1968 that was the Long Hot Summer because the activism took a more heated and militant turn that year.

But I was a mere sprog at the time, so maybe I got it wrong.

[H2O Man]

36. '67 was both.

The fires in cities were the source of "long, hot summer." Hippies were the source of "summer of love."

There is a possibility that this summer will be both, too. Many of us would love to see the defendent indicted by the DoJ, but the heat will cause the defendent to melt.