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Last edited Sun Jun 4, 2023, 04:03 PM - Edit history (2)
America Is Headed Towards Collapse
June 4, 2023 at 8:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 128 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/04/america-is-headed-towards-collapse/
"SNIP.......
Peter Turchin: All human societies experience recurrent waves of political crisis, such as the one we face today. My research team built a database of hundreds of societies across 10,000 years to try to find out what causes them. We examined dozens of variables, including population numbers, measures of well-being, forms of governance, and the frequency with which rulers are overthrown. We found that the precise mix of events that leads to crisis varies, but two drivers of instability loom large. The first is popular immiserationwhen the economic fortunes of broad swaths of a population decline. The second, and more significant, is elite overproductionwhen a society produces too many superrich and ultra-educated people, and not enough elite positions to satisfy their ambitions.
These forces have played a key role in our current crisis. In the past 50 years, despite overall economic growth, the quality of life for most Americans has declined. The wealthy have become wealthier, while the incomes and wages of the median American family have stagnated. As a result, our social pyramid has become top-heavy. At the same time, the U.S. began overproducing graduates with advanced degrees. More and more people aspiring to positions of power began fighting over a relatively fixed number of spots. The competition among them has corroded the social norms and institutions that govern society.
The U.S. has gone through this twice before. The first time ended in civil war. But the second led to a period of unusually broad-based prosperity. Both offer lessons about todays dysfunction and, more important, how to fix it.
......SNIP"
"SNIP......
Competition is healthy for society, in moderation. But the competition we are witnessing among Americas elites has been anything but moderate. It has created very few winners and masses of resentful losers. It has brought out the dark side of meritocracy, encouraging rule-breaking instead of hard work.
All of this has left us with a large and growing class of frustrated elite aspirants, and a large and growing class of workers who cant make better lives for themselves.
The decades that have led to our present-day dysfunction share important similarities with the decades leading to the Civil War. Then as now, a growing economy served to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. The number of millionaires per capita quadrupled from 1800 to 1850, while the relative wage declined by nearly 50 percent from the 1820s to the 1860s, just as it has in recent decades. Biological data from the time suggest that the average Americans quality of life declined significantly. From 1830 to the end of the century, the average height of Americans fell by nearly two inches, and average life expectancy at age 10 decreased by eight years during approximately the same period.
.......SNIP"
applegrove
(118,609 posts)in math and science.
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)**
Deuxcents
(16,176 posts)SWBTATTReg
(22,112 posts)epidemic caused more upheaval, higher average pay per worker, than any of the societal pressures as described by Mr. Turchin. All within a couple of years or so. More and more demand is being focused on producing advanced IT degrees as well as other advanced degrees (medical, engineering, etc.) as the population surges.
mobeau69
(11,140 posts)Im guessing the second time was the Depression.
applegrove
(118,609 posts)why is the GOP exploding the wealth of the one percent and trying to impoverish the former Middle class? What are they up to? Is that what happened to the Roman Empire?
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)It is more the natural progression of economics in a capitalist system. Wealth flows uphill. That is why Turchin noted historical use of a "wealth pump" to bring it back to the base of the pyramid so it can start to filter back upward again.
Mr.Bill
(24,280 posts)by convincing a large part of the population that the wealth flows downward. And many still believe it.
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)with the body balanced on the tiny tip, then yes, it would be flowing downward.
intrepidity
(7,294 posts)But I don't have a subscription, hope someone will Archive.org it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/us-societal-trends-institutional-trust-economy/674260/
mobeau69
(11,140 posts)applegrove
(118,609 posts)frisbee7
(7 posts)intrepidity
(7,294 posts)It needs to be archived by someone with access I guess.
calimary
(81,209 posts)But in the meantime
Welcome to DU, frisbee7!
madinmaryland
(64,931 posts)LonePirate
(13,417 posts)The American populace, as a whole, is incredibly ignorant about so many things in life and the world - far more so than many of our peer countries. We need to improve the education among everyone which will lead to more people with degrees and more people with advanced degrees as a result. If anything, we are not utilizing these people properly within society.
Ohio Joe
(21,748 posts)misanthrope
(7,411 posts)The cure for widespread ignorance is not just education but a broad education that enhances perspectives and creates a well-rounded individual. It's what became known as a classic "liberal arts education."
However in America, pragmatism and commodification reign the culture. With degrees being valued mostly for their access to higher earnings, a subsequent shift occurred. A trade school type approach to universities ascended. Much more specific majors -- finance, business, engineering, tech-geared studies -- gained favor and liberal arts degrees were derided as "useless wastes" of money.
Plus, as more graduates appeared in society, their value naturally dropped. Same as with any commodity or resource. In the way that high school diplomas were more valued 120 years ago than they are now, bachelor degrees have followed suit as they become more common. The same will be the case with graduate degrees, as those who chase them fall deeper into debt.
The author is trying to simplify a more complex scenario to make it more digestible.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)mobeau69
(11,140 posts)applegrove
(118,609 posts)America Is Headed Towards Collapse
June 4, 2023 at 8:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 128 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/04/america-is-headed-towards-collapse/
"SNIP.......
The foundations of this broad-based postwar prosperityand for the ruling elites eventual acquiescence to itwere established during the Progressive era and buttressed by the New Deal. In particular, new legislation guaranteed unions right to collective bargaining, introduced a minimum wage, and established Social Security. American elites entered into a fragile, unwritten compact with the working classes, as the United Auto Workers president Douglas Fraser later described it. This implicit contract included the promise that the fruits of economic growth would be distributed more equitably among both workers and owners. In return, the fundamentals of the political-economic system would not be challenged. Avoiding revolution was one of the most important reasons for this compact (although not the only one). As Fraser wrote in his famous resignation letter from the Labor Management Group in 1978, when the compact was about to be abandoned, The acceptance of the labor movement, such as it has been, came because business feared the alternatives.
We are still suffering the consequences of abandoning that compact. The long history of human society compiled in our database suggests that Americas current economy is so lucrative for the ruling elites that achieving fundamental reform might require a violent revolution. But we have reason for hope. It is not unprecedented for a ruling classwith adequate pressure from belowto allow for the nonviolent reversal of elite overproduction. But such an outcome requires elites to sacrifice their near-term self-interest for our long-term collective interests. At the moment, they dont seem prepared to do that.
.......SNIP"
roamer65
(36,745 posts)We are facing an ELE due to GHG emissions.
That is going to be the main driver of the coming societal colllapse.
Political instability is being driven by the climate crisis right now, and will definitely become worse.
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)**
Think. Again.
(8,056 posts)The human race is just one of many, many species that over a very long period of time evolved together to create a well-balanced system we call our biosphere.
Relatively recent extreme growth of our population and the extreme impact our species has the unique ability (or willingness) to inflict upon the system is resulting in an imbalance of the system.
We are aware of this.
Unless we take immediate and substantial steps backward, the imbalance we are causing will irretrievably disrupt the system beyond our recognition and possibly beyond our ability to survive within it.
halobeam
(4,873 posts)I can only imagine how well we could do, if we tried.
misanthrope
(7,411 posts)that convinced me how badly we will fail the climate change challenge.
halobeam
(4,873 posts)betsuni
(25,456 posts)Pompoy
(122 posts)Initech
(100,062 posts)I don't want to say that one particular news network is the problem - though they've definitely been stirring the proverbial pot for the last 25 years. This is a long, slow boil. And the right wing hate bubble is going to burst, and it won't be pretty when that happens.
Mysterian
(4,585 posts)we would have better regulated capitalism and possibly avert a disaster. We got the corrupt AWOL Bush for eight terrible years and insane Trump for four, and we always have the regressive red states with an inordinate amount of representation in the senate. Taxes must be higher on the higher incomes, like we had in the 1950s, to prevent accumulation of wealth and power with a small class of billionaires. Fundamental flaws in our constitution could doom our republic.
Response to applegrove (Original post)
elocs This message was self-deleted by its author.
maxsolomon
(33,298 posts)Yet we find a way to muddle through.
The US won't collapse anytime soon.
NowISeetheLight
(3,943 posts)Society has always had classes in the US. What's changed though is the wealth gap between rich and poor. Going back to the Vanderbilts and Hunts there were rich and poor. But the rich were taxed highly and the overall gap wasn't nearly what it is today.
The last three tax cuts (Reagan, Bush & Trump) ballooned the deficit/debt and exploded the gap between the top 1% and the rest of us. That widening gap is the problem.
I have no problem with people starting businesses, working hard and making a good living and getting rich. We aren't talking about that. We're talking about the top %. Many of which haven't created anything but merely cashed in on the stock market.
ITAL
(631 posts)But I read a book a year or so ago where a British diplomat was predicting the imminent end of the Unites States during the John Tyler Administration. We've been a remarkably resilient country, even with our issues.
JCMach1
(27,556 posts)We have issues no doubt, but currently visiting UK after about 10 years. And yeah, it apparently has been a steady decline under the RW Tories here... Very real, very visceral decline.