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As a reversal of political poll questions here-are there many polls that were accurate a year before the elections? (Original Post) Just_Vote_Dem Dec 2023 OP
Normally at this point in a presidential election, there is an incumbent and it is not cleare who the challenger would everyonematters Dec 2023 #1
Polls are a snapshot of a point in time. TwilightZone Dec 2023 #2

everyonematters

(3,456 posts)
1. Normally at this point in a presidential election, there is an incumbent and it is not cleare who the challenger would
Sun Dec 17, 2023, 09:53 AM
Dec 2023

be. The situation we have right now is that both of the presumed nominees have already served as president. that hasn't happened since 1898. The voters already have a solidified opinion of them both. That's why the polls are relevant.

TwilightZone

(25,848 posts)
2. Polls are a snapshot of a point in time.
Sun Dec 17, 2023, 10:30 AM
Dec 2023

Polls a year out aren't intended to be predictive, as much as we seem to insist otherwise. They're intended to provide a look at the race at that time.

We also tend to forget that polls represent a range, including the MoE, and are not specific, fixed numbers.

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