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WarGamer

(13,362 posts)
Mon Apr 8, 2024, 07:43 PM Apr 2024

Excellent poll out today... II/Tipp, Biden +3 head to head, TIED in 5-way...

Slow and steady improvement for Biden over the last few weeks...

National polling isn't very instructive... but it's good for observing trends.

https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/08/independents-third-party-candidates-loom-as-election-deciders-in-2024-ii-tipp-poll/

If no other candidates appear on the ballot, the results show Biden 43%, Trump 40%. With the margin of error, it’s basically a dead heat. Significantly, however, 9% responded “other,” while 9% answered “not sure,” for 18% of the total vote.

But the fact is, Trump and Biden are not opposing against one another in a vacuum. I&I/TIPP asks a second question about voters’ presidential preferences, this one adding in the three major third-party and independent challengers who are also running: Independent author, activist and lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., independent former Harvard University professor Cornell R. West, and Green Party standard-bearer Jill Stein.

When those others are added, the numbers change, Biden takes a hit. With the non-Democratic, non-GOP challengers running, Biden and Trump are dead even at 38% each, with Kennedy taking 11%, West 2%, and Stein 1%. “Other” in this case falls to just 2%, while “not sure” remains at 9%.
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Excellent poll out today....