Why is so much money being used to bet on Trump?

[Doodley]

Trump's implied chance of winning based on betting is 50.9%
Joe is at 40.7%
Joe was ahead a few weeks ago. What changed?

Take a look at this graph.
https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart

[Meadowoak]

1. because big money wants us to think that Trump is way ahead. They are in for a rude awakening in November when Biden

wins in a landslide.

[brooklynite]

17. 1) Biden won't win in a landslide...

(that's what Biden's campaign manager says)

2) Why would anyone imagine that betting odds would have any impact on the election?

[WarGamer]

18. no one will win in a landslide... assuming you mean Reagan vs Mondale.

If you mean a Trump sized 2016 victory or an Obama sized 2012 victory... 304 electoral votes or 332, respectively... then maybe.

I personally think it comes down to 1-2 States.

[Ruby Soho]

23. "Big money" is such a vague term...

Who's Big Money?

The media? The pollsters? The talking heads?

If it's the media, I don't think they have ever reported Trump is up big.

If it's the polls, there are plenty of independent polls that are not big money-funded and completely independent of the media. Many are the same polls that, four years ago, had Biden beating Trump.

If you're talking about the talking heads, I don't think they're saying Trump is up big (outside the right). But he is up. Whether that means he wins in November remains to be seen but it's silly to pretend the race isn't extremely close right now.

Regardless, neither Trump or Biden will win in a landslide.

[LakeArenal]

2. Because polls have become meaningless.

[jimfields33]

3. This is actual cash. I wonder if they know they will lose it?

[LakeArenal]

4. A money poll. Millionaire Republicans can easily sway the odds.

[jimfields33]

5. Definitely for sure.

[RandomNumbers]

8. A significant overlap of gamblers with Trumpers

would not come as a surprise to me.

[NanaCat]

12. If they were meaningless

The oligarch traitors wouldn't invest so much money in stunts like this, or on the skewed polls through idiots like the NYT.

[LakeArenal]

24. For that reason alone... polls are meaningless.

[Ruby Soho]

15. This is the exact opposite of why...

The shift in betting odds is likely tied to those who believe in the polls, as Biden was the favorite not too long ago before a slew of polls were released showing him losing.

So, these bettors clearly don't find polls meaningless. Or it would be the exact opposite: Biden would be leading in these election odds despite most polls showing him losing nationally and in key swing states.

[Tribetime]

6. It's not good it seems we need a conviction of drumph

And Biden to drub him in the debates. If not I don't like our chances I wish we would have run Harris or Newsome. Age is the elephant in the room.

[Doodley]

7. I don't think age is the issue. I think it is because of the passivity in letting the Trump side define Biden

in the public perception, just as Hillary Clinton was redined from well-respected politician with 65% approval to incompetent and crooked.

[Poiuyt]

16. I think you hit the nail on the head

Biden has been a great president, but he's got a public relations problem

[RandomNumbers]

9. The two you mention would automatically stoke large "anti" voting factions.

Last edited Sun May 19, 2024, 01:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Kamala - woman of color (TWO strikes)
Newsome - gay - from the "Left Coast" and seen as strong supporter of gay rights.

I hate to have to say it, but it appears that's just what America is these days.

[jimfields33]

10. Newsome is not gay. I'm unsure where you got this

[RandomNumbers]

11. Errp ... you are right ... I will edit if I still can.

I must've absorbed right-wing talking points somewhere



That said, I guess I was thinking of him as seen as a staunch ally of the gay rights movement. SO ... not personally gay ... but would be campaigned against similarly. Although I'm not sure he would deserve it any more than any normal-ish Democrat, as most Dems are strong on LGBTQ+ rights.

[jimfields33]

22. No worries. I get entangled in that to from time to time.

Right wingers are sneaky in their false news. It’s everywhere. Have a great week!

[Tribetime]

20. We are running against what should be the easiest candidate ever to be

...to beat how were we behind

[RandomNumbers]

21. I think most on the left have always underestimated Trump's ability to manipulate people, and

the strength of organization behind him.

He is an awful, awful human being. But he is very skilled at marketing and at manipulating people - much like Hitler. Someone can be incredibly evil and still be skilled in certain ways. There was another thread I just saw, that someone proposed that Hitler had only a 4th grade vocabulary. He may have USED only a 4th grade vocabulary, because it was better for manipulating the masses - but by all reports he was extremely intelligent. There is a similar dynamic with Trump. Although I think there truly is a bit of dementia coming into play with Trump, he has practiced his schtick for so long that it's a little like auto pilot, for a while at least.

As for the strength of organization behind him - for whatever reasons, there are powerful people who believe that he can and will get them things they want (mostly more power).

Just because he is extremely awful and we THINK people should know better than to vote for him - won't make it so. Money channeled the right way can do an awful lot to spread disinformation and to push just the right buttons for the groups of people they need to influence.

[shrike3]

25. Harris and Newsome polled more poorly against Trump than Biden did.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. I don't know the weighting they use, but "Betfair" is British

and I wouldn't take the judgement of British betters on US politics too seriously.

I mean, Michella Obama at 2.2% is stupid - she's said she'll never run, she has never run before, she has said she hates politics and campaigns. PredictIt, which at least is American, doesn't list her:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
and has Trump 49 cents, Biden 47 - ie a lot closer than Betfair.

Betfair has Trump 10/11, Biden 13/8 (British way of showing odds - for Trump, bet 11, get it back plus 10 it he wins; For Biden, bet 8, get it plus 13 for a win. That means you could bet £11 on Trump, and £8 on Biden, and get back £21 if either win - over 10% profit.. This shows the British punters are fucking about ( don't think there's a 10% chance of someone else stepping in and winning). It's tempting to sign up and take advantage of them.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner

[Ruby Soho]

14. Polls have shifted more toward Trump the last few weeks.

Biden rebounded after the State of the Union but seems to have backslided in polling the last couple weeks. I think there was a big shift in the betting odds when those NYT/Siena swing state polls were released.

People can dismiss polls but it's clear those betting on the election outcome believe them.

[Doodley]

19. It's scary. I pray Trump goes down in New York. If not, his victory lap could put him well ahead.

[RandySF]

26. For the same reason they buy his stock and all that other shit.

To show devotion to their cult leader.

[dlk]

27. Billionaires will do absolutely anything for more tax cuts

They couldn’t care less about our democracy or the lives of everyday Americans.

[Raven123]

28. Because gambling is an epidemic.