On this at least I'm certain. Either Biden or Harris must head our ticket
Conflicting cases continue to be made for why President Biden should or should not stand for reelection. Though some of course disagree, IMO it isn't a slam dunk whether it is more or less likely that Democrats will defeat Trump in November with Joe Biden as our standard bearer, as opposed to someone else. It that someone else is Kamala Harris, that is.
Democrats need to close ranks emphatically behind our candidate for President once that selection is irrevocably finalized. In an ideal world we would be unified in that choice now. Obviously this isn't that ideal world, and arguing that it should be doesn't alter reality. Casting blame here or there for a lack of consensus now won't change the fact that divergent opinions on whether Biden should run again remain, and will for a few days or weeks more at most.
There is one possible scenario though which i think would doom any real chance Democrats have of holding on to the presidency this November. That would be to first reject Joe Biden as our presidential candidate, and then pass over his currently serving Vice President as his replacement, in favor of anyone else. Yes Democrats have a deep bench, with many appealing potential candidates. Fine, if Kamala Harris is elevated to become our presidential nominee, one of them can serve as her running mate. But there is nothing that would cement the festering resentments that now potentially divide the hard core Democratic voters that we count on to propel us to victory, than swapping out the entire Biden/Harris Administration for a brand new ticket.
Some have made the point that history has not looked kindly on a political party that doesn't unite behind an incumbent president for reelection. Taft lost to Wilson when Teddy Roosevelt ran as a third party alternative to the then incumbent Republican. When disunity in the Democratic Party in part influenced LBJ to stand down, Richard Nixon ended up succeeding him. Later Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter, and then Jimmy Carter in turn lost to Ronald Reagan, after both of those incumbent Presidents faced stiff opposition from within their own parties.
Yes, history could repeat itself this year, and i think it certain that it would if Democrats choose neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris as our standard bearer for the 2024 election. If President Biden should in the coming days decide, after painful continued reflection, that the time has in fact come for him to pass the torch of leadership on to someone from a younger generation, it must go to the person he has already chosen to succeed him, the woman he personally picked to be his Vice President. And Joe Biden himself would then have to bestow his personal blessing and legitimacy on to his heir apparent. The Democratic base might accept that the transition ultimately is occurring with Biden's blessing, if Kamala Harris runs in Biden's stead. Especially if Joe Biden were to nominate her himself.
Recent history, as far as i can tell, has no precedent for a one term President declining to seek reelection, and bestowing his blessing onto his Vice President instead, with the sole exception of LBJ. Hubert Humphrey did lose in 1968, but the Democratic Party was far from united behind him, and his nomination for President was bitterly contested. If Democrats fail to nominate Biden, but don't quickly unite behind Harris for his replacement, I definitely fear the worst. A smooth, uncontested, passing of the torch directly from Biden to Harris has no negative precedent, unlike what the Democrats went through in 1968.
It is Biden, or Harris, or bust, and the quicker Democrats can close ranks behind one of them the better.
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