Axelrod: Harris momentum leaning heavily on 'irrational exuberance' - what's his problem?

[question everything]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4810051-axelrod-harris-momentum-leaning-heavily-on-irrational-exuberance/

Democratic strategist David Axelrod warned that much of the energy among Democrats about Vice President Harris’s campaign is just “irrational exuberance,” as the race remains neck-and-neck.

Harris’s campaign has come out to a quick start, breaking fundraising records and significantly cutting into former President Trump’s previous lead in polls since she replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket.

“She has a lot of momentum, but if you do look at the polling, this is still a really tight race,” he said. “This is going to be a hard fight for either side. It’s based on the numbers we’re seeing right now.”

[Irish_Dem]

1. Isn't exuberance a good thing in a tight race?

Why insult people for being excited about a candidate?

[Bucky]

56. It's the irrational part we need to look at

He means well. He remembers the exuberance for Dukakis, the optimism about Gore, the certainly about Hillary. Trauma of loss can linger in the mind and habits longer than is helpful.

[Irish_Dem]

64. The data supports the exuberance.

Kamala's poll numbers have risen sharply in a short period of time.

But yes it is not over until it is over.

But surely we have every right to be cautiously optimistic that we can save our democracy.

And be allowed to feel the good feelings for a moment.
We deserve and need to have some good feelings right now.

[Bucky]

69. Of course

As you say "cautiously optimistic." He's remembering times the hoi polloi were incautiously optimistic.

He's worried Trump's got a new Mueller up his sleeve, or that the voter suppression efforts will make a critical difference. He remembers losing the race while "winning" the election by 3 million votes. He remembers Trump beating his final polling

This is a trauma response. We shouldn't shrink from the joy of Kamala, but we do need to keep our feet in the ground.

[Irish_Dem]

73. They would do better to balance their thoughts like this.

He and Carville sound like Debbie Downers instead of rational.

It is a given that Trump and the GOP are going to get brutal and ugly.
And cheat as much as they can.

So we are going to have to be realistic about that.

This is why we must have good will points stored up in bank for when
Kamala gets the heck knocked out of her.

[yardwork]

90. I don't recall any exuberance about Dukakis.

His campaign stands out as probably the worst of my lifetime. Sorry to say..

Also, I don't recall a lot of optimism around Gore, as he battled Nader and right wing lies.

[Bucky]

98. If you don't recall exuberance about Dukakis, then you don't remember the polling

Dukakis was up by 10 points in May 1988

and

Up by 17 points after the convention in July '88

We weren't just ecstatic about Dukakis, we thought we were getting Camelot back. If you don't remember Dukakis fever, it's cause you got 20/20 hindsight. When we were in the thick of it, however, Democrats were high.

For Gore, yes the enthusiasm wasn't too strong there. As I recall he was just a hair behind Dubya all autumn long. Whenever a candidate is behind, everyone in the party starts sniping at the campaign staff---every decision they make seems wrong and everyone questions their every step. When a candidate is ahead, everything they and their staff do is genius. We lose critical focus.

We remember these things afterwards based on final results. Gore actually ran a pretty competent campaign. He won the vote (by half a million), but not the election. God help us if that happens again. It easily could. We probably have to beat Trump by 5 million votes to clear the EC bias.

Enthusiasm matters, but it needs to be informed and level-headed and at least a little cynical about our chances. I value Axelrod's warning. He's right on the money to tell us to keep our noses to the grindstone. History tells us two things: Trump always beats his final polling numbers by a couple of percentage points and Republicans are getting better and better each year at suppressing our voters.

We have a shot, but we are serious underdogs, even if Kamala is 3-4 points ahead in the polling averages.

[NewHendoLib]

2. People stuck in the beltway bubble have no clue

[democratsruletheday]

17. BINGO 'NewHendo'

Axelrod is a tool...he's as out of touch as they come

[poli-junkie]

3. Really. Why is Axelrod consistently a

Debbie Downer when it comes to talking about Dems? To get attention? I don’t get him.

[edisdead]

18. Him and the Pod Save guys

Will say whatever gets them attention.

They suck.

[ColinC]

4. That's good. So did Obama's. I wonder if he had a problem with it then, too.

[highplainsdem]

51. I definitely don't remember him complaining about exuberance for Obama, or suggesting it was irrational.

[uponit7771]

107. +1, first women president Americans are supposed to be optimistic like Obamq

[unblock]

5. Might be pissed plouffe got the job he wanted....

[True Dough]

27. +1

After Axelrod was so insistent that Biden must go, the timing of his comments about Kamala's skyrocketing popularity do seem rather suspect, don't they?

[Cha]

96. OH Right! He was Always Whining about Pres Biden Before

the debate. Axe is a hot Mess.

[Kid Berwyn]

6. Prick* needs the money.

You don’t get paid to be boooooriiiiiing.

* What President Biden called him.

[Bluesaph]

23. I never knew that.

Is there a link?

How appropriate!

[Kid Berwyn]

92. Most apropos...

Joe Biden Called David Axelrod a ‘Prick.’ It Won’t Shut Him Up.

A Q&A with the former Obama strategist who’s not afraid to critique the Biden campaign.

by Ryan Liza
Politico, January 12, 2024

David Axelrod recently got a gift in the mail.

It was a box of political pins that captured the unique role that the former top Barack Obama strategist has carved out for himself as a 2024 political commentator — and how allies of the current president see Axelrod at this moment in time.

Snip…

n November, he suggested Biden think long and hard about running for reelection. He has been withering about Biden’s skills as a candidate and communicator. He is deeply concerned about the president’s age. And unlike other Democrats in the anti-bedwetting set, Axe has been clear that the party should be freaked out by the polls.

All of this has made Axelrod a bit of an irritant to the president.

Thus the joke pins. My colleague Jonathan Martin reported in the fall that Biden recently used the P word (“prick”) to describe Axelrod.

Mike Murphy, the Republican strategist who co-hosts the “Hacks on Tap” podcast with Axelrod, recently joked that if Biden were to get close to Axelrod, the president may end up convicted of manslaughter. (“I’m too quick for him!” Axelrod responded.)

Continues…

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/01/12/david-axelrod-obama-biden-2024-00135194

[BComplex]

52. Wow! I've always thought Axelrod was a pr**k!

So glad our president agrees!!!

In fact, I truly believe that people like axelrod are why democrats were looked down upon in general for so many years. He's a person who has always looked down on democrats, and some politicians kept hiring the asshole!!

[Yavin4]

7. There are some Dems who fear an energized Dem base.

The only way to beat Trump is with an energized, enthusiastic base. They want Dem candidates to go after moderates. Problem is, there are not enough moderates to swing the election. What will swing the election is turnout. When Dems turnout, we win.

Axelrod is too old school for modern politics.

[Sky Jewels]

60. Yep. He's a couple decades off the mark.

[ALBliberal]

91. Same with Carville IMO

[uponit7771]

109. +1, 60% of gen x is dem and even more for gen z

[bucolic_frolic]

8. I agree with him. We don't want to peak now. We have policies to sell, but M$M both-sides everything

People and numbers have short perspectives. Everyone is really, really, really pissed at 3% inflation. Recall 1979, or 1981? 11%? 13?

GHWB was always 7-9% ahead of Dukakis. That's a lead.

We have momentum right now. M$M will beat us up for 3 months. Independents must be courted. Progressives must be encouraged. Those are opposing objectives to some extent.

What will win this race is turnout. Our ground game and outreach is what we have. But GQP does have voter suppression. Many, many voters will find themselves no longer registered to vote. GQP has turnout, but they do not have any reserve gas in that tank. We do.

[Demsrule86]

11. Axelrod is a traitor to Democrats...one should never agree with him period.

[iemanja]

12. Have you actually looked at the polls?

It does a great deal of danger to the Democrats electoral prospects to pretend this will be a landslide. Anything that undermines the fact we need to work hard to turn out votes plays into Republican hands.

[LAS14]

15. Hear, hear!!! nt

[Sympthsical]

38. Axelrod was right about July

Many of his detractors were incredibly wrong and head-in-the-sand about events.

So this confidence in dismissing his assessment . . . it was less than a month ago.

I don't know how I'd ever pivot from being 100% absolutely, counter-factually, pressure-poundingly wrong about politics and then declare I absolutely know what's going on a few weeks later and decide I still don't need to listen to outside voices.

I guess humility can only be taught to the willing. And sometimes even then it just doesn't seem to stick.

[Demsrule86]

78. Are you kidding me..Axelrod is not on our side...deal.

[Sympthsical]

82. I can situate who is on my side just fine.

And frankly, after July, I would think people would be far more careful about how heavily they're applying their information and viewpoint filters.

[Demsrule86]

86. He has had JD Vance as a guest, Dan Crenshaw, Tom Cotton and Mike Murphy is usually on too..look it up

[obnoxiousdrunk]

74. This.

[Demsrule86]

76. Yes I have but honestly...most of the polls are seriously flawed...Axlelrod is in the words of Biden a prick.

The poll can't hide that she is on the upswing though... Axelrod has GOP types on his show to bash Democrats...fuck him.

[Ninga]

39. I think having momentum is not peaking. The

D’s will own the news cycle this week (VP announcement) through the Chicago convention, That brings us up against September. Keeping people interested in voting will take grassroots hard work. We peak on Election Day.

[Mz Pip]

50. Fortunately

it’s a short season.

I agree with Axelrod. We don’t want to peak too soon and have interest wane in November.

[mcar]

71. ...

[uponit7771]

108. None of this is evidence of "irrational* part of Axelrods statement

[Demsrule86]

9. Axelrod is a bad guy-trashed Biden daily and apparently intends to do the same to Kamala. He is no friend to Democrats

He regularly has GOP asshats like Crenshaw GOP of Texas.

[vanlassie]

31. Tom Cotton. He had Tom Cotton on his pod for an entire hour.

That was it for me.

[Demsrule86]

79. Cotton is not the only one eithers...one wonder why some here seem to want his bullshit to be true.

[crimycarny]

104. Axelrod predicted the "red tsunami" in 2022

Tweeted that he “suspects” Dems in close races in 2022 don’t want Biden campaigning for them because he would hurt their chances. Well, Biden did campaign for those in tight races and they won.

He’s always had disdain for Biden. And he’s always been wrong.

[LuvLoogie]

10. The media are always boosting negative "Democratic" voices

Carville is another. Any third way Democrat still breathing.

[LAS14]

13. I'm energized whenever I bump into clear thinking,

committed people like Axelrod and Carville. Bubbles eventually suffocate you.

[hlthe2b]

14. He and Carville need to go far, far away for the next 93 days.

I get not wanting folks to become overly confident or to let up in any way. But we've seen MAGA in action and I doubt anyone is naive' to coming tactics. But, damn. These too are worse than "Debby Downers..."

[boston bean]

16. Likes to hear himself talk.

[Iggo]

55. Pays his rent like that.

He’s mad because the “Horse Race Of Disarray” never happened.

[consider_this]

19. His particular comments aside...

we are all pumped now - but it is IMPERATIVE that the excitement translates to actual votes. The last thing I want to hear from anyone, especially blue-staters - is oh, she's got it in the bag and I'm in a blue state so my vote will not count. EVERY supporter must actually support where it counts - with a ballot cast for her. I have no fear that all among us on DU know and will do so, but we must loudly urge everyone we know that their vote matters and is urgently required!

[Cirsium]

43. Excitement leads to votes

Excitement leads to votes like nothing else can. It is not either/or.

The problem a lot of the consultants and operatives have with public excitement is that it threatens their control over the party narrative. We can't have "mob rule" after all! Our betters will tell us what to do and when and how to do it.

How are we supposed to be excited about getting people out to vote if we are supposed to be excited?

[Sky Jewels]

72. Complacent people don't donate, volunteer, write postcards, make phone calls, put up signs, etc.

Excited, enthused people do. And all those millions of actions lead to millions of votes in our column.

David Axelrod really needs to be put out to pasture. He sucks.

[edisdead]

99. Yeah we should be downtrodden and morose instead

Until some magical time where we can be excited.


Honestly I waste too much time on politics with other democrats.

This finding fault within ourselves is fucking exhausting.

[consider_this]

112. did I say anything like that?

I'm not sure what I worded to give any such impression. My intent was simply let's give it our all- regardless of what anyone (in this case Axelrod) says.

[displacedvermoter]

20. He wanted the mini primaries like Carville did, more opportunity for mischief

and potential clients for political mercenaries.

No friend of ours, him or Carville.

[Bluesaph]

21. He also just HAD to put himself above David Plouff

I sense some resentment and jealousy in Axelrod! What a weirdo.

[awesomerwb1]

22. Please everybody "cancel" this guy

Don't give him any attention. He's just a giant clickbait loudmouth at this point.

[Music Man]

24. It's a fair point.

I prefer exuberance to its opposite, but this campaign can't be won on enthusiasm alone. It will require strategy, groundwork, and action. Now, we've obviously seen all that from the Harris campaign--volunteers signing up, fundraising, organized messaging--but Axelrod correctly points out it's still a close race, especially in the battlegrounds. I am happy with a nice balance of enthusiasm and groundedness.

[edisdead]

100. without enthusiasm how

how do you get people to go out and do the qork that needs to be done?

This is all just talkin stupid.

You need enthusiasm to get people fired up to go out and door knock and donate and do all the shit that needs to be done to get people to vote.

No please instead everyone atay calm and composed and for pittys sake keep your powder dry. Excitement is NOT what we need or want right now……

Sorry but that is asinine.

[Music Man]

103. I'm pretty sure I said that it can't be won on enthusiasm *alone*

And that Harris is showing us that they are taking the necessary steps, such as getting lots of volunteers in.

But sure, strawman me.

[Diraven]

25. Irrational?

He never says why it's irrational. Basically he just says he thinks Trump will win anyway so Democrats should just stop being so positive and give up.

[Quixote1818]

26. He says over and over Harris is still behind in the polls. This is flat out false.

Snip: “It’s absolutely Trump’s race to lose right now. He is ahead,” he said. “And he is ahead in most of the battleground states. They’re close, they can be won by either candidate.”

What total BS!

[Aepps22]

28. I agree

The reality is the we have the momentum and the polls have been trending our direction and that’s after the assignation attempt and their convention. We haven’t even had our convention. I understand not getting overconfident but enthusiasm is great and that’s what we need.

[NYC Liberal]

57. Even in the polls where she's still behind

Look at the trend, not just the current data point. Spewing doom and gloom saying she’s two points behind without mentioning that Biden was five points behind (random numbers) is very misleading.

[epreic01]

29. He's a smart man

Listen, him and Carville don’t want people to feel this momentum and think we’ve got this. We aren’t in any position to feel complacent. We can be excited because now there’s hope. But it’s not inevitable . So GOTV!!! Seriously now GO!!!

[Aepps22]

33. Time and Place

My issue with him and Carville is that there is a time and a place for this kind of thing. We went through a very dark and gloomy period after the debate where morale on our side was incredibly low. Unlike the bad guys our side needs enthusiasm to GOTV. We haven’t even had our convention and a VP hasn’t been picked. No one thinks we have it in the bag but enthusiasm is very helpful.

[edisdead]

101. Excitement drives participation

Participation gets people to the booth.

Sorry but him and carville may have been geniuses at one point in time. He sounds like a fucking moron to people that ARE excited and ARE putting in the effort.

I mean honestly do these guys think they have some sort of a fucking hot take in that if people don’t vote we lose??? That shit may have been newsworthy 30, 20, heck even 10 years ago but get this, people are pretty fucking smart these days. We don’t need has-beens highlight how to lose.

[SocialDemocrat61]

30. The Harris campaign didn't hire him

So he’s pissed

[Attilatheblond]

106. Yep, the parade passed him by and he is just jealous and angry they aren't running to him

There are more than a couple overly entitled gents even on our side, guys who want to mansplain it to the people running things now, many of whom are women.

If Biden could set aside his personal feelings to help usher in a new generation, and one with more women in top positions, those chaps of lesser self control but bigger egos can learn to step back and accept today's political realities. We all know Biden has done more and earned more admiration that 'Axe', and he has the grace to just get on with his job and not pout about how badly other DEMS treated him recently.

Years ago I wrote a poem that closed with the line "Ego stew is a nasty brew". There are a handful of DEM men who previously held prominent positions years ago that I just might mail it to.

[viva la]

32. I don't think it's irrational at all.

It's irrational that Axelrod was grumpy about Biden, and is now grumpy about Harris.
He probably is really grumpy that Obama can't run again, because I think his former boss is actually the only Democrat he seems to like.

[MaryMagdaline]

34. Giddy exuberance translates to tons of volunteers on the ground.

Why TF is anyone trying to quell enthusiasm when we are in the final 90 days?
And why are we encouraging the enemy by saying that this is a tight race? Let them get depressed and stay home.
He has to hedge his bets. We don’t. We don’t have jobs predicting elections. Our job is to get as many bodies to the polls to win this election.

[viva la]

35. "Irrational exuberance"

Alan Greenspan used that term in 1996 to warn about overpriced stocks. I remember that I was swayed by his "wisdom" and sold out my mutual fund and put it in "safer" investments.

The Dow went up 16% in each of the next two years.

Sometimes exuberance is rational.

[agingdem]

36. his problem: for over a year Axelrod has insisted Biden should withdraw..

he was too old, too slow, too blah blah blah....so Axelrod gets his wish but he's pissed..why?....because he more than likely wanted a mini primary and an open convention... but Biden put an end to that dream when he endorsed Kamala Harris and the party/delegates rallied around her...

Axelrod and Carville had their day and that day is long gone....

[Sky Jewels]

47. This.

Every word. 👍🏼

[agingdem]

75. I wonder if Kamala had taken Axelrod on instead of David Plouffe

if he would be singing a different tune?...just a thought

[Sky Jewels]

88. No doubt about it!

[mcar]

37. Fck him

What a disappointment.

[PortTack]

40. He hates President Biden, has since he strongly encouraged Obama not to pick him as VP. He's a dog with a bone!

[Iggo]

41. It's not irrational. It's natural. And it's a good thing.

Excuse me while I mix my sports metaphors and get all rah-rah on a motherfucker…

We’ve got him on the ropes. We keep swinging. We do NOT stop fighting.

It’s a sprint, not a marathon.

We do NOT take our foot off the gas.

We give 100%.

And we leave it all out on the field.

I know it sounds goofy. But I do believe that’s how we win. We’re in a unique position here where we can use the excitement of the first hundred days of a candidate’s campaign as the last hundred days of the actual presidential campaign. Let’s not waste that energy.

Exuberance is good. And in the current situation, it’s definitely not irrational.

[Pisces]

42. Axelrod is very pragmatic and he is calling out what he knows and sees. People here trashing him are

Questionable. He does not want Trump to win and he is just warning everyone to stay vigilant and keep the focus. I appreciate him and his expertise.

Why is anyone on this board tolerating name calling of Axelrod???

[Demsrule86]

84. I suggest you research this, he gave Tom Cotton an hour of this time on the Axe.

[ImNotGod]

44. One would never piss on a fire that's keeping them from freezing to death so why is Axelrod trying to piss on

the enthusiasm boosting the Harris campaign, just makes no sense. Sure, it will eventually level off to a slow burn but don't be such a party pooper.

[Sneederbunk]

45. Has entered Weird Dude territory.

Not a good time to be leaning weird.

[Sky Jewels]

46. Debbie Downer is trying to stay relevant.

His ship has sailed. It’s a new post-Roe era, but he doesn’t know it yet.

[ananda]

48. I basically ignore Axelrod.

Besides, my exuberance is rational and I love it!

[Iggo]

62. He's been useless since 2016.

[Tommy Carcetti]

49. David Downer.

&pp=ygUNZGViYmllIGRvd25lcg%3D%3D

[everyonematters]

53. He is just being realistic.

The Democratic Party needs to start acting like a major political party again.

[Bucky]

61. He's being pessimistic. And that's okay

We need voices like his too. The excitement is good for us, but every Icarus needs to listen to his Daedalus. This party has been burned by overconfidence before.

He's right to warn us

[Sky Jewels]

65. Lol Hard pass.

I say we don’t go back to the losing, namby-pamby, Republican-appeasing, corporate centrist ways of the past. No thanks! I’ll take a revved up progressive Democratic party that’s of this century and ready to seek Roe-venge on the GQP. Enthusiasm drives massive turnout. Axelrod can shove it.

[everyonematters]

94. I am also a progressive, but we need try to appeal to whole electorate.

Throw out neo liberalism and work for a strong middle class, not just a growing economy. We don't have to abandon everything we stand for but emphasize the kitchen table issues.

[edisdead]

102. I am sorry how have we done in elections since 2018?

Yeah don’t be shitting on my party.

[uponit7771]

110. Don't see the "irrational" part being real... First female president warrants optimism like Obama

[displaced in ID]

54. attention getting scum

The answer to "What's wrong with him?" is this: If he had written that the Harris campaign was doing great and that's why Dems are excited, nobody would be talking about what he said. Nobody here, including myself, would be paying him any attention. And that is something he cannot abide.

[JohnSJ]

58. Fuck him. We are going into a Convention and there is nothing wrong with a little exuberance

Who does he think he is with “irrational exuberance”? Greenspan?

Irrational exuberance is the MAGAs supporting someone who tried to overthrow the government. What say you Axlerod?

[J_William_Ryan]

59. 'irrational exuberance'

Poor choice of words.

But otherwise he’s correct – we must not become overconfident, this is a tight race and will be a close election.

[Sky Jewels]

68. He's a moron if he doesn't realize that

excitement, energy and enthusiasm drive solid GOTV efforts and the hard work of knocking on doors, making phone calls and writing postcards—the stuff that actually wins elections. Sitting around telling people to not get excited does nothing positive and puts a damper on all the energy that translates into a Harris victory. Nobody is complacent. Axelrod can kiss my shiny heinie. I wish he’d STFU and crawl back under his rock for a few months.

[Charmin One]

81. They were saying the same exact thing

About the economy during Clinton’s terms as president. They were afraid Clinton’s policies were too successful and too popular.

[dobleremolque]

63. Wrong adjective, Axelrod....

what you're seeing is rational exuberance. Well directed, well focused, fueling a drive forward that will only pick up speed and gain adherents. It's going to peak Nov. 5, not before.

[Charmin One]

66. It's RATTIONAL EXUBERANCE

Biden has done well, but he is too old and performed rather poorly at the debate. Harris is much younger, has more energy, isn’t wird, and debates well. I am exuberant!

[Blue Owl]

67. Whereas the tRump campaign's supporters -- completely rational

?si=TN5xnU96E7hcVH8E

[Keepthesoulalive]

70. I don't want to hear his take on exuberance

I want to hear what he is doing to make sure trump loses. Where are his billboards, his investment in advertising and his speaking about trumps cognitive decline? Pissing on democrats joy is unproductive. Help us keep our democracy.

[Iggo]

87. His money comes from the horse race. The closer, the better.

If Harris puts enough distance on Trump, nobody cares what Axelrod has to say.

[Hekate]

77. It's a catchphrase that doesn't translate well to this situation, Mr. Axelrod...

With such a short time to go, we can use all the exuberance we can muster. Furthermore, given the sheer hell we’ve lived through with Trump, the relief alone is energizing.

[TheKentuckian]

80. Run full out all the way through the tape and don't get cocky should suffice.

[Klarkashton]

83. He saying something like the sun will rise in the east

With great profundity. Basically he's said nothing.

[Voltaire2]

85. He's not totally wrong.

Harris is a breath of fresh air, has a lot of momentum, is not two old white men, and has reset the election in our favor, but there is a long time and the fascists have unlimited funds to devote to reframing the election. Complacency would be wrong, and I'll give Axelrod the benefit of the doubt that this was his intention.

[TommyT139]

89. Suspiciously close to "hysterical" nt

[LetMyPeopleVote]

93. Does anyone pay any attention to Axelrod? Why?

Link to tweet

[Cha]

95. My Experienced guess.. Axe is a Bitter Whiner.. Always Whining

bitterly about Prs Biden and now he's trying to throw his stale water on VP Kamala Harris.

[CoopersDad]

97. Him and Carville, struggling to become relevant. F them both. eom

[brush]

105. Axelrod has turned into an unpleasant scold among Dem strategists.

He and Joe Biden have a long-time animus between them, but he seems to be switching that to VP Harris now.

The scold needs to get on the Harris bandwagon with enthusiasm like most other Dems instead of cautioning bs.

[Skittles]

111. WTF happened to Axelrod?

seriously, WHAT