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Frank D. Lincoln

(894 posts)
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 04:32 AM Sep 2024

This message was self-deleted by its author

This message was self-deleted by its author (Frank D. Lincoln) on Wed Feb 5, 2025, 11:33 AM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

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This message was self-deleted by its author (Original Post) Frank D. Lincoln Sep 2024 OP
We need another poll similiar to this sky_masterson Sep 2024 #1
I voted other because I believe displacedvermoter Sep 2024 #2
Neither, they are both political entertainment... getagrip_already Sep 2024 #3
I like following the betting markets Poiuyt Sep 2024 #4
I agree. Scruffy1 Sep 2024 #6
Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022. TwilightZone Sep 2024 #7
The keys ClimateHawk Sep 2024 #5
Lichtman. tavernier Sep 2024 #8
This. Al Gore won, when the votes got counted. The Supreme Court had no business interfering. Bastards all. mucholderthandirt Sep 2024 #10
RSO rso Sep 2024 #9
That does make me feel more confident Frank D. Lincoln Sep 2024 #11
There are other countries that are hell bent on turning the foreign policy / military keys ecstatic Sep 2024 #12
His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote Quixote1818 Sep 2024 #13

sky_masterson

(576 posts)
1. We need another poll similiar to this
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 06:26 AM
Sep 2024

What Political election theories do you get behind?
Rachel Bitecoffer
Alan Lichtman
Nate Silver
To me Bitecoffer is the one i put most behind.
Lichtmens Keys are subjective to me.

displacedvermoter

(3,463 posts)
2. I voted other because I believe
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 06:27 AM
Sep 2024

the polls are more and more indicative of his prediction.

getagrip_already

(17,625 posts)
3. Neither, they are both political entertainment...
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 07:18 AM
Sep 2024

They are designed to make money for the authors and buyers. They are used as the currency of the media.

Neither is scientific nor statistically defensible.

Poiuyt

(18,272 posts)
4. I like following the betting markets
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 07:35 AM
Sep 2024

Scruffy1

(3,429 posts)
6. I agree.
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 07:58 AM
Sep 2024

Just because someone has been in the past really has no bearing. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads six times in a row it is still 50-50 on the next flip. A real tell is the use of the term "Nostrodamus" who wrote silly vague crap. Bookmakers are very realistic and only care about making money. The problem with polls is the "likely voter" classification. No one knows who will turn up on election day. Of course, the booky thing is just based on how the money is going like pari-mutual betting so it doesn't include non gamblers. What we do know that a good candidate will find a way to win especially in a close race and the way to do it is through enthusiasm thst drives people to vote.

TwilightZone

(28,835 posts)
7. Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022.
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 08:50 AM
Sep 2024

They basically just swing with the news. They aren't any more predictive than anything else (in some cases, they're decidedly worse).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/16/how-good-are-election-prediction-markets/

ClimateHawk

(344 posts)
5. The keys
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 07:50 AM
Sep 2024

Because they have held since 1860.

tavernier

(13,422 posts)
8. Lichtman.
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 09:03 AM
Sep 2024

Gore won.

mucholderthandirt

(1,288 posts)
10. This. Al Gore won, when the votes got counted. The Supreme Court had no business interfering. Bastards all.
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 12:43 PM
Sep 2024

If Lichtman has been so right in the past, the odds are he's right this time, too. If the MSM bobbleheads weren't corporate lackeys, Harris would have a twenty point lead and Trump would truly be the laughing stock of the world, instead of coddled and excused.

rso

(2,537 posts)
9. RSO
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 10:08 AM
Sep 2024

Fortunately, both Lichtmann and most polls are predicting a Harris victory.

Frank D. Lincoln

(894 posts)
11. That does make me feel more confident
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 03:49 PM
Sep 2024

but not to the point of complacency.

I know we still have to GOTV on a massive scale.

ecstatic

(34,608 posts)
12. There are other countries that are hell bent on turning the foreign policy / military keys
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 05:26 PM
Sep 2024

So I don't know.

Also, we now have a lot of people fucked up due to the storms.

Quixote1818

(30,664 posts)
13. His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 05:43 PM
Sep 2024

I think he's onto something with voter trends near election day but the electoral college makes his keys almost irrelevant. What if Texas had been a blue state in 2016? Trump would have lost. Subtle shifts in voter trends in current swing states could ruin his predictions. He's been lucky several swing states have worked in his favor as the popular vote has shifted to the left.

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