NYT: Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows

[Omaha Steve]

The latest polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows Republicans leading in key Senate races in Montana, Texas and Florida.

By Shane Goldmacher
Oct. 10, 2024
Leer en español

Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Senator Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for re-election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

Mr. Tester, who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is winning over moderate and independent voters and running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. But as of now, that does not appear to be enough to survive in Montana, a conservative state where former President Donald J. Trump is ahead by 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate hangs in the balance.

Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessman and a former Navy SEAL who has never held public office, leads Mr. Tester 52 percent to 44 percent, the poll shows. Mr. Sheehy’s lead is a seven-point advantage without rounding.

Democrats currently hold a 51-seat Senate majority. But with Republicans already set to pick up a seat after the retirement of Senator Joe Manchin III, an independent from West Virginia who caucuses with Democrats, the party cannot afford to lose additional seats.


FULL story: http://archive.today/lRUw0

Original link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html

[Omnipresent]

1. Why?

So they can help in attacking women’s reproductive rights??

Vote all those assholes out!

[Lovie777]

2. Nope.....................

Dems keep the Senate and take the house. NYT at it again.

[NoMoreRepugs]

3. I call BULLSHIT.

[-misanthroptimist]

4. Oh, no!

Not another Red Wave!

The NYT has lost nearly all credibility with me over the last few years.

[Chakaconcarne]

5. I'm sure they are "poised".

[democratsruletheday]

6. even if true...

the Dems are poised to take over congressional control so....it's probably gonna be split

[RidinWithHarris]

12. Split isn't very good

If were to hold only one chamber, it would be much better to hold the Senate, since the Senate alone approves Presidential nominations.

I'll of course be immensely relieved as long as Harris has the Presidency, but she will be severely hampered without control of both Houses, especially the Senate.

Expect full scorched-earth opposition to every piece of legislation and every appointment, especially judges. Republicans will do everything in their power to try to make Harris a one-term President who takes the blame for everything that she couldn't do because Republicans blocked her. The American voters ARE that stupid.

[yellowcanine]

7. This looks like the "red wave" prediction of 2022.

I will wait for the actual voting.

[RidinWithHarris]

14. Not at all related

We have a very slim 51 seat majority in the Senate. In this cycle more incumbent Democrats are in tough fights than incumbent Republicans.

We're definitely losing one seat in WV with Machin retiring from the Senate.

We can't lose even one more seat unless we can compensate for any such loss with a surprise red-to-blue flip.

Montana is, unfortunately, not looking good for Jon Tester. Montana is very red of late. It's more of a surprise Tester has held his seat this long than it's a surprise his luck might not hold out this time around.

Our best looking compensatory pick-ups in TX and FL aren't looking to hopeful either.

I still hold out hope, but this is a very, very different situation from the failed 2022 red wave (during which, by the way, we still lost control of the House, but not by the big margin many expected).

[obamanut2012]

16. Aleays so pessimistic

Not realistic, pessimistic. Why.

[RidinWithHarris]

18. How so?

In what way did anything I wrote veer off from realism?

Optimistic, pessimistic, or realistic, there's still no parallel to failed "red wave" predictions (which were far more pundit-driven than data driven anyway). Roughly a third of the Senate's 100 seats are up for grabs every two years, roughly 33 seats, as opposed to all 435 House seats. Given that many of those seats are always fairly safe, it's kind of silly to talk about "waves" when fewer than 10 seats are ever likely to switch parties in any given election.

By (bad) luck, this just happens to be an election where, from the start, Democrats had more tough fights on their hands than Republicans. We'll actually be doing damned well purely from a numbers point of view by losing only two seats. We have to hope for (and work for) better than damned good this time, however.

[617Blue]

8. OMG GOP leading in TX and FL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RidinWithHarris]

9. Mentioned not because it's a surprise, but because that's where Democrats were hoping to compensate for Montana

We currently have only 51 seats (including independents who caucus with Democrats). We lose control of the Senate if we lose two seats, or even just one seat if we don't have the Presidency.

We're definitely losing WV with the retirement of Manchin from the Senate. Manchin was just barely a Democrat anyway, but did caucus with us so helped us control the Senate (then screwed us on many close votes). WV is VERY Republican, so it was amazing Manchin held out there for as long as he did.

Then there's Montana. It's not crazy NYT bias that Tester's prospects aren't looking too good.

So that's where mentioning TX and FL comes in. Tough as a Democratic win is in those states, they are nevertheless the best prospects we've seen to flip a Senate seat from red to blue.

If we lose WV and MT, and don't make up for at least one of those seats somewhere else, the Senate slips away from us.

[maxsolomon]

10. This has been known for 2 years. The seats that are up in this election don't favor Dems.

Montana's been trending Red for years. Tester's in trouble because he's got a D after his name as much as anything else.

This is why Senate Dems don't want to get rid of the Filibuster.

[Initech]

11. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Fucking god no!!! We can't let them, they already destroyed the House and SCOTUS with their conspiracy theory bullshit.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

13. Unfortunately, this isn't a surprise.

We have 51 seats right now, and so can only lose one and retain control if we win the presidency.

West Virginia is a certain loss, so we can't lose any more. With Tester behind in MT, well, that's it.

[Omaha Steve]

15. Kick

[Coexist]

17. Yeah, Tester is consistently down around 5 I hate to lose him