Am I missing Something? Why is everyone freaking out over recent national polling?

[SouthernCal_Dem]

The last 3 polls show Harris with a 3 point lead (TIPP, ABC, and CBS). The NBC poll which was released yesterday is actually old. The survey was conducted 10/4-10/8, and it's only for registered voters and not likely voters. I wouldn't worry about the NBC poll.

Basically this has been a 2-3 point race for the last few weeks and hasn't really changed. It's unlikely to change between now and election day.

I'd much rather be in our position 3 weeks before election day.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

GOTV and we'll win.

[H2O Man]

1. Recommended.

"Everyone" is not accurate, though many are. I'm not.

[Doc Sportello]

2. Thanks for some perspective

Especially the point about when it was conducted. And just because some in the national media freak out it doesn't mean we have to.

[Mad_Machine76]

3. She's leading in most key states she needs

Link to tweet

?s=46

Link to tweet

?s=46

[WarGamer]

4. Possibly because a 2-3% national win might not win the election.

Let me simply point to PA, MI and WI...

Trump needs one of them if he retakes AZ and GA.

It's a pretty clear picture no matter what polling says.

Harris takes NC and it's over early that night.

[PeaceWave]

26. Bingo. The national vote isn't the concern.

[UTUSN]

5. K&R for, thanks - the "news" has been getting me to the last nerve.

[Qutzupalotl]

6. Especially now that voting is underway. nt

[Miami Blue]

7. Check this out

Okay, according to The Economist
Harris = 50.2
Trump =47.0

[AZSkiffyGeek]

8. Because a bunch of concern trolls are spreading FUD

I won't say they are deliberately helping TFG, but that is the end result.

[RidinWithHarris]

10. You incorrectly assume that making people worried about the outcome of the election helps Trump

How would that work?

Do you really think more Democrats simply give up on voting in a tight race? For most people isn't a tight race, either just a little ahead or behind, all the more reason to feel your vote is important?

FUD would only help Trump by fooling people into thinking we're WAY ahead or WAY behind.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. Welcome to DU - keep up the concern!

[RidinWithHarris]

14. What concern?

Other than concern over silly conspiratorial reactions to polling and people who talk about the polling.

[Wiz Imp]

9. Based on what's listed on 270towin

The last national poll to show Trump with a lead was a full month ago from AtlasIntel (a right wing pollster which does not have a positive reputation). During the past month only 4 polls (out of 44) even showed the race tied. That includes the NBC poll which was of registered voters meaning it probably under states Harris' support.

Without commenting on the reliability of the polls, it is totally fair to say it remains a close race, but the national polling has shown the margins very stable for over a month now.

Yes, the swing state polls have tightened but that can be traced directly to the heavy influx of "red wave" polls since the beginning of October.

[CrispyQ]

11. This is totally anecdotal, but...

I live on a busy corner & granted it's in a blue area, but I bought a slew of yard signs* this year. I put two out every morning. Hubs grabs them at night, & the next day I put two different ones out. I've had three people come to the door & ask where I got my signs & two just to say they love them, one with a cash gift to help defray the cost. I was out weeding one day when the TRUMP FOR PRISON sign was out & three people honked their horns.

The best though, was the guy who left a note in my door & asked if I would possibly loan him two signs so he could play a practical joke on his neighbor who was on vacation. He put the signs in the neighbor's yard & texted him a photo. I don't know how that all played out but when he returned the signs he included a bottle of wine.

Trust the vibe, not the polls. ~Katie Phang

* I have a friend in the imprint biz who gave me a smokin' deal!

[Duncan Grant]

21. Great story!

If we were neighbors…oh, the mischief we’d get into!

[TeslaNova]

12. The NBC poll shifted 5 points in 3 weeks

Hopefully just a glitch in the matrix.

[mcar]

15. Because this is DU in October of an election year

[OldBaldy1701E]

16. To be honest, because some people have to have something to freak out about.

I have a good friend who is like that. We always said that if my friend had nothing to complain about, he would curl up in a ball and die.

(We also say that, due to his penchant for pointing at things while barking orders, if my friend ever broke his index fingers, he would be useless. Because he would be.)

[MineralMan]

17. Doomsayers. They have to chime in whenever they can.

It's a DU tradition. More of it to come.

[DownriverDem]

18. Sorry but

the closer we get to election day the more scared we get. trump and the MAGAs will destroy us.

[moonscape]

23. 2016 PTSD

[RobinA]

19. Because A Three Point

difference in a national poll is not enough, and I’m not even talking about the margin of error.

[MadameButterfly]

32. Agreed. We need this not to be a close election.

Only the swing states count and we may lose some to Republicans refusing to certify. The Supreme Court just gave him immunity so do we trust them with election cases this time?
He's emulating Adolph Hitler for God's sake.

I'm not trying to blow anyone's peace of mind. If some of you are optimistic that's great. Worry doesn't accomplish anything. But those of us who can't muster the same right now aren't crazy. I'm also too nervous to stand at the edge of a tall cliff, even though I probably won't fall. The possibility is enough to scare me.

[maxsolomon]

20. Because it's far too close and so many Americans are absolutely immune to reason.

I can't talk my Dad out of voting for literally the WORST PERSON IN AMERICA without destroying my relationship with him. He says he's voting FOR his Grandchildren's future - but every single one of them hates Trump's guts.

The idea that he could return to power has me absolutely freaked out. It will be AWFUL.

GOTV, sure, but feeling anxiety about the results is perfectly rational.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. I mainly worry about the battleground state polls.

I don’t really even bother with national polls.

[retread]

24. I worry about my fellow citizens. How could this crazy old fascist poll higher than 3%?

[maxsolomon]

25. 2 options:

1. they're pathetic, stupid victims of a shameless con man.
2. they're actually horrible people.

[Think. Again.]

27. "Everyone" is not.

[Ursus Arctos]

28. Small stuff that makes me freak out less

Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:07 PM - Edit history (1)

Today I had a conversation with a maintenance guy at my place of employment. I work at a small liberal arts college, and my institution has a fall break today and tomorrow. It was quiet on campus, and he seemed in the mood to talk. I have chatted with him before. He believes "they" control the weather, immigrants are getting free homes and healthcare, and FEMA isn't helping the hurricane victims. Today he started talking about the election and he said "I voted for trump; I'll admit it. But there is something loose in his head. I don't want to see him be President again." I asked him what he was going to do and he said "I'm gonna vote for the lady." He said he didn't like it that Obama was campaigning for her because "Obama hates this country...He and that Soros guy have said terrible things about America." He finished up by saying "I'd rather take my chances with her." I know it's not a ringing endorsement of "the lady", but I found it heartening anyway.

[JCMach1]

29. Trump has 48% approval in that NBC poll

That literally tells me how off their polling model is.

[sky_masterson]

30. He has never been over 47%

But all the sudden..

[JCMach1]

34. Exactly...

Please note, not saying thing may indeed be close. At the National level, it doesn't pass the smell test.

It's going to be counterintuitive, but don't take any poll that has the candidates statistically tied nationally.

Trump can win, but it will not be with anything approaching a plurality. I would not take any poll seriously that doesn't have Harris up by at least 3% nationally. Then you can look at the swing states in the same dataset. Tied, or losing, just ignore if tied or losing in the national.

[spanone]

31. K&R

[Butterflylady]

33. Didn't anybody watch David Shuster.....

There was a video of David Shuster that said people are wringing their hands and it is all for nothing because Kamala is winning and the polls are way off.

From what I'm reading his campaign is losing control over dump. Ever since Joe quit the race dump doesn't listen to what they are saying.