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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump has Paid for Many of the Swing State Polls used by 538
If you look at the National vs. Swing State polls, you might notice a pattern.
Nationally Harris is winning by about 2.5-3 points and in many of the swing states, Trump is ahead by a small margin.
When you look at the swing state polls where Trump is ahead, one name shows up multiple times with multiple sponsors.
Fabrizio
If you look at the National polls, only one sponsor appears: The Wall Street Journal. These national polls stopped in mid August.
If you look at say, Michigan, Fabrizio is partnered with multiple other pollsters in various combinations. The sponsor varies but does include Trump himself.
For example, in Michigan, you have the following combinations:
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO
- Fabrizio Ward
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
While these have different sponsors, 538 considers these separate polls even though they are performed by the same firm.
These are true in each of the swing state polls. The number of times Fabrizio is used outnumbers all other pollsters in each state.
Now, consider the sponsorship of this pollster. According to OpenSecrets, Trump and Republicans have paid this pollster more than $4 million in this election cycle as of July 16th of this year with Trump spending about 75% of that total. See: https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2024&vendor=Fabrizio%2C+Lee+%26+Assoc
I expect to see that number more than doubled when the next batch of FEC filings are made.
As many analysts have noted: Trump is doing this to set the pretext for him to claim the election is stolen when he loses. Always follow the money. Remember, there is only one poll that matters and that is happening now through early voting and concludes on November 5th. As Obama says, don't boo, VOTE!
lizardkingjr
(92 posts)Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)I think that is important since that ties in with Trump's plan. And the amount of spend by Trump far outweighs anything Republicans did in 2022.
CrispyQ
(38,336 posts)Klarkashton
(2,132 posts)of some other shit.
I agree with you completely. It's just recently showed up as an almost daily pollster on 538.
Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)Like those who defend Garlands lack of prosecution of Trump (he allowed several charges to expire) and his delay in appointing a special prosecutor until Trump announced he was running.
groundloop
(12,297 posts)tRump should have been sentenced and started serving his time behind bars over a year ago. Garland might have been a good choice for the Supreme Court but he's sure as hell not doing what needs to be done now.
BluenFLA
(162 posts)Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2024, 07:53 PM - Edit history (1)
I noted this on some other thread but got scolded by a poster who swears by that site. But what do I know? 🤷?♂️
PortTack
(34,692 posts)I dont know what it will take for ppl to see the truth of it.
JCMach1
(28,079 posts)Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:54 PM - Edit history (1)
Trump can win, but not with a plurality.
So, look for polls with Harris with a 3+ lead and then look at the swing state breakdown for a more accurate picture.
niyad
(120,195 posts)number, and it is a pollster, the very first question I ask is, "who commissioned this poll and is paying for it?" If they cannot/will not, identify the relevant party, I tell them oh-so-politely where they can stick it, and hang up. If they can tell me, I may answer the poll just to mess with them., especially their demographics.
Everybody needs a hobby.
valleyrogue
(1,123 posts)I am afraid of what is going to happen on November 6, assuming Kamala Harris is elected.
This promises to be J6 all over again, only worse.
CrispyQ
(38,336 posts)>> The police & guard will be on call, & our side determines when they're called, not their side.
>> If they manage to stall the January count, guess who's still president? Joe Biden.
>> Simon Rosenberg is all over the slanted polls coming out, with history on the pollsters & who's funding them.
>> Mark Elias is all over the hundred lawsuits the Trump campaign & republicans have already filed & will be ready for all the new ones.
>> Our TRUMP card is that Joe Biden has pre-approval from SCOTUS to do what he needs to do, including kill a political opponent. We all know that's a line Biden would never cross, but there's a lot he could do that doesn't cross it. And when push comes to shove, Joe Biden loves this country.
We need to vote & give VP Harris big margins in swing states.
Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)Biden is in charge, not Trump this time.
Biden knows what Trump is about.
Botany
(72,526 posts)He has his own polling operation that is an
aggregate of right leaning polls and that data has been mixed with 538 which has been skewing the results to the right.
Murdock did this with his Wall Street Journal polls in '22 showing a red wave was coming that never happened. Many polls now are no longer scientifically driven samples of a population but are meant to drive media coverage and voter behavior.
Republicans cheat end of story.
But we still gotta work and work and work.
Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)We can only see what campaigns spend on pollsters it would be good if election pollsters also had to declare payments including private spends.
Botany
(72,526 posts)A good random sample of a population
The sample has to be large enough to get the most of the different opinions of the population
you may not get every opinion in that population if those opinions are really a small part of
the population
Questions by the pollster should not be of a nature to sway the person be asked the questions
opinion
The data gathered by the pollsters should undergo a quality statistical analysis
Changes in technology, lifestyles, and peoples attitudes has changed on getting good samples
And remember even a good poll is just a snap shot in time.
*******
Many of the polls being pushed now have agendas
AdamGG
(1,496 posts)That show similar results in Wisconsin & Michigan. It's very close and we need to do everything humanly possible to assure that a sociopath fixated on revenge doesn't return to power. Even if Trump is rigging some of the polls, there are other reputable pollsters that indicate that it's alarmingly close.
I don't know if polls adequately forecast turnout and hopefully the prospect of Dump potentially winning will create unprecedented turnout against him. Whatever violent insurrection those assholes attempt (and they likely will), it's infinitely better than the alternative of their being declared winners.
standingtall
(2,982 posts)The parent company of News Nation which is basically Fox news lite so I wouldn't refer to it as a trust worthy poll either.
The only real poll that matters is the ballot totals. All of the other polls are there to influence voters one way or another.
hay rick
(8,230 posts)UTUSN
(72,479 posts)pansypoo53219
(21,743 posts)PoindexterOglethorpe
(26,730 posts)Remember Dewey Defeats Truman.
Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)Manipulate the media and set a pretext forna coup is unique in our time though.
PortTack
(34,692 posts)As for 538 and RCP poll aggregators and individual polls nope.
ailsagirl
(23,822 posts)What a crook!!
Nictuku
(3,871 posts)Mr.Werp: I'm trying to educate my friends and family, and you lay this out so beautifully (with links)! Of course I will credit you, if you agree.
Mr.WeRP
(581 posts)No need for credit, spreading the word is the priority.