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Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 03:55 PM Oct 14

Trump has Paid for Many of the Swing State Polls used by 538

If you look at the National vs. Swing State polls, you might notice a pattern.

Nationally Harris is winning by about 2.5-3 points and in many of the swing states, Trump is ahead by a small margin.

When you look at the swing state polls where Trump is ahead, one name shows up multiple times with multiple sponsors.

Fabrizio

If you look at the National polls, only one sponsor appears: The Wall Street Journal. These national polls stopped in mid August.

If you look at say, Michigan, Fabrizio is partnered with multiple other pollsters in various combinations. The sponsor varies but does include Trump himself.

For example, in Michigan, you have the following combinations:
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO
- Fabrizio Ward
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research

While these have different sponsors, 538 considers these separate polls even though they are performed by the same firm.

These are true in each of the swing state polls. The number of times Fabrizio is used outnumbers all other pollsters in each state.

Now, consider the sponsorship of this pollster. According to OpenSecrets, Trump and Republicans have paid this pollster more than $4 million in this election cycle as of July 16th of this year with Trump spending about 75% of that total. See: https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2024&vendor=Fabrizio%2C+Lee+%26+Assoc

I expect to see that number more than doubled when the next batch of FEC filings are made.

As many analysts have noted: Trump is doing this to set the pretext for him to claim the election is stolen when he loses. Always follow the money. Remember, there is only one poll that matters and that is happening now through early voting and concludes on November 5th. As Obama says, don't boo, VOTE!

30 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trump has Paid for Many of the Swing State Polls used by 538 (Original Post) Mr.WeRP Oct 14 OP
Kick dalton99a Oct 14 #1
Simon Rosenberg is all over this. lizardkingjr Oct 14 #2
The one thing Rosenberg didn't cover is the stolen election point Mr.WeRP Oct 14 #4
Everyone worried about the polls should watch this. -nt CrispyQ Oct 14 #10
I mentioned this the other day here and got a bunch of wise ass cracks about Fabrizio, because it's a name Klarkashton Oct 14 #3
That's too bad. Don't be discouraged by the snark. There are other bigger issues that are more controversial here Mr.WeRP Oct 14 #6
I couldn't agree more.... one year should have been enough to file charges (in my most humble opinion) groundloop Oct 14 #16
This is why 538 should be taken with a grain of salt BluenFLA Oct 14 #5
You are right about 538! They have been so wrong the last 3 election cycles. I get scolded too. PortTack Oct 14 #23
Pay no attention to national polls that do not have Harris up by 3 or more JCMach1 Oct 14 #7
On the very rare occasion that I answer the phone to an unknown niyad Oct 14 #8
This is really important. valleyrogue Oct 14 #9
I'm not saying there won't be violence, but we are in the power position, not them. CrispyQ Oct 14 #14
These Meal Team Six people have no idea what they are running into Mr.WeRP Oct 14 #22
Elon Musk has been helping out in this shit too Botany Oct 14 #11
This is an important point Mr.WeRP Oct 15 #26
Good polling has: Botany Oct 15 #27
There's also recent polls by Emerson College & Quinnipiac Univ. AdamGG Oct 14 #12
The latest emerson college poll is sponsored by Nexstar standingtall Oct 14 #24
Polls Dave Id Oct 14 #13
Thanks for the information. K&R hay rick Oct 14 #15
Shocker: He *pays* for something?! UTUSN Oct 14 #17
indeed. he paid for SOMETHING. beside a wife. pansypoo53219 Oct 14 #21
Bad polls are everywhere. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 14 #18
A candidate paying for public polls in order to shift the narrative Mr.WeRP Oct 15 #25
When Heather Cox Richardson and Simon Rosenberg both say the rt is tilting the polls...I believe them PortTack Oct 14 #19
Why am I not surprised?? Good to know those polls aren't accurate and why. ailsagirl Oct 14 #20
Can I copy your analysis for my facebook? Nictuku Oct 15 #28
You are of course welcome to. Mr.WeRP Oct 15 #29
And you do not bite that hand that feeds you. republianmushroom Oct 15 #30

Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
4. The one thing Rosenberg didn't cover is the stolen election point
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:11 PM
Oct 14

I think that is important since that ties in with Trump's plan. And the amount of spend by Trump far outweighs anything Republicans did in 2022.

Klarkashton

(2,132 posts)
3. I mentioned this the other day here and got a bunch of wise ass cracks about Fabrizio, because it's a name
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:11 PM
Oct 14

of some other shit.

I agree with you completely. It's just recently showed up as an almost daily pollster on 538.

Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
6. That's too bad. Don't be discouraged by the snark. There are other bigger issues that are more controversial here
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:03 PM
Oct 14

Like those who defend Garland’s lack of prosecution of Trump (he allowed several charges to expire) and his delay in appointing a special prosecutor until Trump announced he was running.

groundloop

(12,297 posts)
16. I couldn't agree more.... one year should have been enough to file charges (in my most humble opinion)
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 06:11 PM
Oct 14

tRump should have been sentenced and started serving his time behind bars over a year ago. Garland might have been a good choice for the Supreme Court but he's sure as hell not doing what needs to be done now.

BluenFLA

(162 posts)
5. This is why 538 should be taken with a grain of salt
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 04:20 PM
Oct 14

Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2024, 07:53 PM - Edit history (1)

I noted this on some other thread but got scolded by a poster who swears by that site. But what do I know? 🤷?♂️

PortTack

(34,692 posts)
23. You are right about 538! They have been so wrong the last 3 election cycles. I get scolded too.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 10:55 PM
Oct 14

I don’t know what it will take for ppl to see the truth of it.

JCMach1

(28,079 posts)
7. Pay no attention to national polls that do not have Harris up by 3 or more
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:11 PM
Oct 14

Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Trump can win, but not with a plurality.

So, look for polls with Harris with a 3+ lead and then look at the swing state breakdown for a more accurate picture.

niyad

(120,195 posts)
8. On the very rare occasion that I answer the phone to an unknown
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:27 PM
Oct 14

number, and it is a pollster, the very first question I ask is, "who commissioned this poll and is paying for it?" If they cannot/will not, identify the relevant party, I tell them oh-so-politely where they can stick it, and hang up. If they can tell me, I may answer the poll just to mess with them., especially their demographics.

Everybody needs a hobby.

valleyrogue

(1,123 posts)
9. This is really important.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:27 PM
Oct 14

I am afraid of what is going to happen on November 6, assuming Kamala Harris is elected.

This promises to be J6 all over again, only worse.

CrispyQ

(38,336 posts)
14. I'm not saying there won't be violence, but we are in the power position, not them.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:55 PM
Oct 14

>> The police & guard will be on call, & our side determines when they're called, not their side.

>> If they manage to stall the January count, guess who's still president? Joe Biden.

>> Simon Rosenberg is all over the slanted polls coming out, with history on the pollsters & who's funding them.

>> Mark Elias is all over the hundred lawsuits the Trump campaign & republicans have already filed & will be ready for all the new ones.

>> Our TRUMP card is that Joe Biden has pre-approval from SCOTUS to do what he needs to do, including kill a political opponent. We all know that's a line Biden would never cross, but there's a lot he could do that doesn't cross it. And when push comes to shove, Joe Biden loves this country.

We need to vote & give VP Harris big margins in swing states.

Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
22. These Meal Team Six people have no idea what they are running into
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 08:44 PM
Oct 14

Biden is in charge, not Trump this time.

Biden knows what Trump is about.

Botany

(72,526 posts)
11. Elon Musk has been helping out in this shit too
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:34 PM
Oct 14

He has his own polling operation that is an
aggregate of right leaning polls and that data has been mixed with 538 which has been skewing the results to the right.

Murdock did this with his Wall Street Journal polls in '22 showing a red wave was coming that never happened. Many polls now are no longer scientifically driven samples of a population but are meant to drive media coverage and voter behavior.

Republicans cheat end of story.

But we still gotta work and work and work.

Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
26. This is an important point
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 07:51 AM
Oct 15

We can only see what campaigns spend on pollsters… it would be good if election pollsters also had to declare payments including private spends.

Botany

(72,526 posts)
27. Good polling has:
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 08:46 AM
Oct 15

A good random sample of a population
The sample has to be large enough to get the most of the different opinions of the population
you may not get every opinion in that population if those opinions are really a small part of
the population
Questions by the pollster should not be of a nature to sway the person be asked the questions
opinion
The data gathered by the pollsters should undergo a quality statistical analysis
Changes in technology, lifestyles, and people’s attitudes has changed on getting good samples
And remember even a good poll is just a snap shot in time.

*******
Many of the polls being pushed now have agendas

AdamGG

(1,496 posts)
12. There's also recent polls by Emerson College & Quinnipiac Univ.
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:44 PM
Oct 14

That show similar results in Wisconsin & Michigan. It's very close and we need to do everything humanly possible to assure that a sociopath fixated on revenge doesn't return to power. Even if Trump is rigging some of the polls, there are other reputable pollsters that indicate that it's alarmingly close.

I don't know if polls adequately forecast turnout and hopefully the prospect of Dump potentially winning will create unprecedented turnout against him. Whatever violent insurrection those assholes attempt (and they likely will), it's infinitely better than the alternative of their being declared winners.

standingtall

(2,982 posts)
24. The latest emerson college poll is sponsored by Nexstar
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 11:09 PM
Oct 14

The parent company of News Nation which is basically Fox news lite so I wouldn't refer to it as a trust worthy poll either.

Dave Id

(39 posts)
13. Polls
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 05:46 PM
Oct 14

The only real poll that matters is the ballot totals. All of the other polls are there to influence voters one way or another.

Mr.WeRP

(581 posts)
25. A candidate paying for public polls in order to shift the narrative
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 06:17 AM
Oct 15

Manipulate the media and set a pretext forna coup is unique in our time though.

PortTack

(34,692 posts)
19. When Heather Cox Richardson and Simon Rosenberg both say the rt is tilting the polls...I believe them
Mon Oct 14, 2024, 06:27 PM
Oct 14

As for 538 and RCP poll aggregators and individual polls …nope.

Nictuku

(3,871 posts)
28. Can I copy your analysis for my facebook?
Tue Oct 15, 2024, 11:10 AM
Oct 15

Mr.Werp: I'm trying to educate my friends and family, and you lay this out so beautifully (with links)! Of course I will credit you, if you agree.

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