Andrew Romano: Obama Gets Lucky in South Carolina Primary Results

[highplainsdem]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/22/obama-gets-lucky-in-south-carolina-primary-results.html

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What’s more, by attacking Bain Capital, Romney’s fellow Republicans, Newt in particular, are now accelerating and amplifying the DNC’s long-planned assault on the central rationale of Mitt's campaign: his purported job-creation abilities. The onslaught is working: since December, unfavorable reactions to Romney’s Bain experience have increased by more than 75 percent among Republicans, and it was Gingrich, not Romney, who prevailed among South Carolina voters most worried about the economy. The Bain issue won't disappear before fall; Obama will simply quote Gingrich in his inevitable attack ads, which will air just as the majority of Americans are first tuning in to the election. In fact, there’s a real risk that Romney will become the John Kerry of 2012: an unloved Bay Stater who was nominated because his résumé matched the moment—Kerry the war hero; Romney the economic turnaround artist—but then saw his strongest selling point transformed into his biggest weakness.

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The second scenario also involves a long slog. It's less likely, but after Saturday, it’s possible: Gingrich, whose disapproval rating is 13 percentage points higher than his approval rating, somehow winds up winning the nomination. This would be the luckiest thing that has ever happened to Obama. The amateurness of Gingrich’s candidacy is obscured when he’s on the debate stage, which is where most voters have encountered him. But on the trail, it’s unavoidable. As I wrote Saturday, “the level of nontraditionalness on display [at Newt’s campaign events is], to borrow a phrase, utterly profound—so profound, frankly, that it makes it hard to imagine Gingrich ever really being able to ramp up and go toe to toe with President Obama’s ultrasophisticated reelection operation.”

One example. On the stump here in South Carolina, Gingrich was constantly promising voters that he would “challenge the president to seven three-hour debates in the Lincoln-Douglass tradition.” If Obama refused, Newt continued, he would simply turn up the heat. “When we get to Tampa, in my acceptance speech, I will announce that the White House will be my scheduler,” he told the crowd in Beaufort on Thursday. “Wherever the president goes I will show up four hours later. I don’t think it will take very many weeks of me methodically rebutting his speeches for the White House to say they want to debate.”

The audience, of course, applauded. But Gingrich’s plan is delusional—a professorial fantasy that neatly illustrates why his scattershot, shoestring style of improvisational campaigning will be no match for Obama’s rigorous, high-tech, billion-dollar behemoth. Say it actually happens. Team Obama gets to plan everything weeks in advance. They secure a picturesque site. They recruit a bunch of enthusiastic attendees. They hone their voter-registration techniques. They prepare the president’s remarks. And then, and only then—a few days beforehand—do they announce where and when the event is going to take place. At that point, Team Gingrich must scramble to catch up, struggling at the 11th hour (and likely failing) to attract a similar number of supporters and book an equally presidential venue. The disparity will be on display—on the evening news, on the Internet, on Twitter—for all to see. As a result, Newt will end up looking like a desperate, disorganized beta candidate who’s letting his rival dictate the terms of their engagement—which is what he will be. And Obama will look very, very lucky.

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[Jackpine Radical]

1. It's so nice

to have a hopeless Republican candidate out there attacking the lead dog with Democratic talking points.

Sometimes you get a dead-certain rush of intuition, and this is one of those times. Here is what my intuition tells me:

Republicans have always depended on lies and obfuscation to keep their sheep in line & voting against their interests. The one greatest thing the Internet and social media have brought us is wide exposure to information. The Republican Party can't survive in the sunlight. What we're seeing now, I believe, is not just the temporary setbacks of a powerful political organization. Instead, we are seeing the first stages of its final breakup.

And I need to add that, to the extent that the Democrats have similarly relied on lies and obfuscation, they too are vulnerable.

[highplainsdem]

3. +1,000

[opihimoimoi]

2. KnR #4 :o) Noot is gonna sink himself sooner than later....