If the House fails to pass the deal, what happens?

[ProSense]

The best things about going over the cliff are the defense cuts and the expiration of the full tax cuts on the rich. The worst things are the spending cuts to social programs.

This deal allows the majority of the tax cuts on the rich to expire, preserves the safety net, delivers more relief to low-income and unemployed Americans and doesn't cut spending.

Over the cliff, I think unemployment benefits would be extended, though I doubt it would be for a full year at 73 weeks. The President would definitely introduce the tax cuts below $250,000, but there is no guarantee he would get them. Sure Republicans would look like assholes for blocking them, but has that ever mattered to them?

The other programs in the current deal would not pass. Republicans, especially those in the House, would balk at extending the 2009 similus tax credits for college tuition, doc fix, permanent AMT and renewable energy tax credits.

Trying to included them as part of the tax cuts would give Republicans an opportunity to demand tax concessions.

[liberal N proud]

1. This...

[Recursion]

17. Andrew Sullivan said it best

*meep meep*

[ProSense]

2. Krugman:

As background, it’s important to understand what Obama clearly could have gotten just by going over the cliff. Basically, he could have gotten the whole of the Bush high-end tax cuts reversed, which would mean close to $800 billion in revenue over the next decade. What he couldn’t get, or at least couldn’t count on getting, were various spending items. This included the extension of unemployment benefits and various “refundables” on things like the Earned Income Tax Credit, that is, pieces of tax legislation that end up having the government cut checks to families instead of the other way around.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/conceder-in-chief-2/

[Cha]

3. We should find out soon..

Thank you, ProSense.

[KharmaTrain]

4. And What About The Deficit?

...fine, we've gone over the cliff and I'm all for partying like it's 1999. The next mess still looms...raising the debt ceiling or this country will default on its debts forcing a near total government shutdown. This is a serious deal that I'm not hearing much discussion about as it got jumbled into all the other financial balls in the air.

So...to get the ceiling raised (and yes, I know and could rant all day about what hypocrites the rushpublicans are for creating this defecit and then voting without question to raise the ceiling anytime dubya ran out of money for his wars for profit) will mean some real tough negotiations since you will need the House to approve a deal and we're seeing that they'll let the country go to hell before they do any time of deal. Be assured that things that have been put on the table in the past...CPI, raising of eligibility ages, means testing, etc. will be on their list.

I'll be watching, as usual, as we head for yet another "cliff"...but this one WILL have teeth. Sadly we're dealing with an opposition that prefers to campaign than govern...

[Jon Ace]

5. It'll be another last minute thing.

Ending in us "kicking the can" another few years.

[Egalitarian Thug]

7. Like the so-called fiscal cliff, the deficit is a manufactured crisis to draw your attention away

from what really matters. The mythical ceiling will be raised at the last minute, just as it is every two years, the lost tax credits for the middle class will be argued over for a few weeks, and the Democrats will probably give up a cut to the poorest senior citizens in exchange for an extension of UI benefits.

And the military spending will be restored and go unremarked, as will the other corporate welfare programs.

[KharmaTrain]

8. It's "Manufactured" When It Doesn't Affect You...

...I'm looking at a letter from a home for disabled people who rely heavily on federal government funding (state funding has all but dried up) that are barely staying above water due to rising costs of virtually everything and no assurances that their funding next year will come close to meeting expenses. And that doesn't take into account the strong possibility their checks could stop if the "so-called manufactured" defecit ceiling isn't raised and the government shuts down. And yes...I think the rushpublicans are stupid enough to do what they did in '95 and let everything atrophy. For these people that isn't a cliff they're looking at, it's a big wall...and with little to no political clout.

If wishes were horses, I'd say we cut back on the large corporate welfare system that the rushpublicans protect for their rich benefactors. You are right that spending to social services will be cut before a single dime of defense spending is touched...there are too many hands in that pie (including some Democrats).

I also expect the ceiling will be raised...but at what cost? Or do we keep kicking cans? Seems like that works the best as no matter what kind of a deal is offered no one is satisfied...

[Egalitarian Thug]

9. Do you really think this doesn't effect me? Do you want to trade sob stories? Would it matter

if we did? This is one of the most frustrating things about any of these discussions. People that hold your apparent position seem to be determined to allow the whole of everything to continue to decline in exchange for a little temporary relief. You talk about the reality of political process while pretending that it's going to change this time, and are more than willing to walk away from everybody that has already gone through what you fear is coming for you.

We're either all in this together or we are all on our own and chaos is the rule. How much worse does it have to get before you are willing to take that stand?

[KharmaTrain]

10. That "Little Temporary Relief"...

...you refer to are trivial things as food, heat and basic needs for mentally and physically disabled people. Yep, I'm real short-sighted here. Sheesh! But then count on DU to demonstrate how callous and selfish people can be!!

[Egalitarian Thug]

11. So you choose everybody for himself and fuck those below me. OK, got it.

Fuck those disabled people, they should be happy with whatever scraps I decide to drop in my pursuit of more.

For someone that uses Kharma in their name, you seem to have little understanding of how it works.

[KharmaTrain]

13. I Sure As Hell Know How It Works...

...your lack of any compassion says volumes. Fortunately a majority of Democrats who voted for this compromise didn't agree with you either...

Peace...

[Motown_Johnny]

6. We craft a bill that cuts taxes on those below $250 K a year but increases

spending for social programs.

That way the (R)s can vote for tax cuts while we get the social programs restored.

[high density]

12. Even if it does pass...

The GOP is going to keep creating crises until they get what they want, which is cuts to Social Security and Medicare. They are blaming the fiscal problems that they created in the Bush years on those programs.

[bluestate10]

14. The bill will pass. Pelosi has her camp in line, Boner just has to bring over 50 republicans. nt

[1-Old-Man]

15. If it doesn't pass? Am awful lot of people lose their unemployment as of yesterday, layoffs aplenty

Many many defense contractor employees get laid off all around the nation too.

[Lady Freedom Returns]

16. What I do know, if they do not come up with something when Apartment complexes open...

and hit the codes to get the section 8 payment that some will be like the people in this story may if themselves in.
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/20436512/tucson-prepared-for-fiscal-cliff-deadline