Republicans’ 2016 problem — in 2 charts

[Playinghardball]

In the wake of the 2012 election, we wrote extensively about how the November contest exposed not just short term problems for the GOP but longer term issues as well.

Purely politically speaking, Republicans have two major long term issues: 1) The electoral map is tilting (and likely will continue to tilt) toward Democrats and 2) The broader shape of the electorate (and population) is also moving in Democrats’ direction.

Now, we have those two trends detailed in chart form thanks to the Cook Political Report (a former Fix employer!).

The first chart shows the two parties’ share of the electoral vote in the last 15 presidential elections with the solid lines representing the five-election average.



The second chart compares the two parties’ overall share of the popular vote over that same time frame with the five-election trend as well.



What’s clear — in both the electoral and popular vote — is that these things tend to move in cycles and, right now, the arc of those historical trends is not working in Republicans’ favor.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/12/31/republicans-2016-problem-in-2-charts/

[reformist2]

1. Not to sound overly optimistic or complacent, but the 2012 election was the GOP's last chance.

No way the GOP - as it is today - can win national elections ever again. Their brand of both social and fiscal conservatism doesn't sell anymore. Either they will have to adapt, or they will wither away and die.

[yurbud]

2. 2 charts raise two questions: when will Dems bury the rotting corpse of the Republican Party and...

when will they divest themselves of the Republicans corrupt, destabilizing policies like privatization, deregulation, and foreign policy and trade agreements of, by, and for the very wealthy at the expense of average Americans and the people in any other country they get in their sights.

[cbrer]

3. I thought for sure

It would be one chart of toilets flushing, and another of whining babies...

But this works too!

[downandoutnow]

4. I don't see that. In the first graph especially I see a bouncing towards parity.

And that candidates matter. Bill Clinton won in the 90s because he both had the "cool" factor (youthful, a member of the elite (Yale Law School)) as well as a natural ability to re-connect with the average-Joe "Reagan Democrats." After Bush II, Obama won by being the "cool" candidate on steroids.

I actually see Hillary being able to reprise her husband's appeal to the kool kids AND average Joes. Romney clearly couldn't connect with either of them. But with the country being close to 50/50 these days, the candidate counts! Don't be counting chickens!

[bluerum]

5. In the first chart the moving average and electoral vote count for dems

appears to have peaked and is trending down. Hope this reverses in 2016. The Clinton elections really weighted the curve.