How Will The American People React When The President Proposes Some Gun Safety Measures & The Repug.

[global1]

house fails to support them?

[hack89]

1. Considering Harry Reid doesn't support an AWB

I don't think much will happen. Especially when the debt ceiling fight starts and sucks all the oxygen out of the room.

[Nevernose]

73. He was on local NPR last night

And said very clearly that it's not an issue of supporting or not supporting, and since the House won't move an AWB ban, the point is completely moot.

[B2G]

2. It's gonna be ugly

Escpecially if he tries to bypass Congress.

A huge number of Dems own guns. Just look at the contraversy here on DU.

This is going to be a fight.

[Berserker]

5. Very true

Just look at the OPs on GD. It is polluted with hate. Post after post taunting and provoking any kind of reply from gun owners so they can pile on. If they think this hate is constructive and beneficial to the Democratic party they are very wrong.
I would think the owners of DU would see this is not going anywhere and only achieves loss in revenue for them by losing long time members and turning new members away. It is no longer a conversation on what to do about gun violence it is a hate fest.

[B2G]

6. Exactly n /t

[bongbong]

22. ?????

> Post after post taunting and provoking any kind of reply from gun owners so they can

Well, if gun-owners were actually as tough as they claimed to be, and not such Delicate (Flowers), maybe they could handle.....words.....on anonymous chatboards.

SHEESH!

[beevul]

42. Exhibit A. N/T

[bongbong]

7. Pesky facts

> A huge number of Dems own guns.

Well, if you count 28% as "huge", you have a point.

From the Gallup Poll on gun ownership.

As always, the delusions of the Delicate Flowers are always breathtaking to behold.

[B2G]

9. If you're done ROTFL, please post a link

30% of our base in insignificant?

[bongbong]

10. Moving the goalpost

From "huge" to "not insignificant". Funny stuff!

Google "gallup poll on gun ownership"

[B2G]

11. It's 40%, not 28%, and that is huge.

Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) are more likely than Democrats (including Democratic leaners) to say they have a gun in their household: 55% to 40%. While sizable, this partisan gap is narrower than that seen in recent years, as Democrats' self-reported gun ownership spiked to 40% this year.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx

[bongbong]

13. Nope

Not 40%, it's 28%.

ProTip: read the poll data before posting "facts" about it.

[B2G]

14. It's 40%.

Post supporting evidence or shut the hell up.

[bongbong]

16. LOL

My supporting evidence is the poll. When you learn how to read, let me know.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx

The figure for Democratic gun ownership is 28%. Your lack of ability to read simple poll results is telling. That lack is your problem; not mine, nor reality's.

[NickB79]

25. You're not reading that graph correctly

You are looking at the chart titled "Summary of Gun Owners", correct? Allow me to point out the error you've encountered. Don't feel bad; it took me a few minutes trying to figure it out as well.

First, they ask the primary resident of the household if he/she personally owns a gun. 41% of Republicans and 28% of Democrats said yes.

In the next column over, it's titled "Other household member owns gun", such as the respondent's spouse, child, or other family members living in the same household (brother, sister, parents, etc). That shows that 14% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats said yes to this question.

So, you must SUM the two columns to get a true number of gun owners, which comes out to be 55% Republican and 41% Democrat.

Granted, this could be problematic if, say, the husband is a Republican and the wife a Democrat, but it seems that Gallup didn't differentiate these points in their survey.

[DanTex]

33. Since when are non-gun-owners who live with a gun owner considered "true gun owners"?

[NickB79]

39. It's not asking about non-gun owners

It's clearly asking about people living in the same household as the respondent who ALSO own their own guns.

For example, say I answer the poll and tell them that yes, I own a rifle. And then they ask, does anyone else in your household have a gun? I'd say, yes, my wife owns a rifle as well. She is free to buy and own her own firearms. That is two separate gun owners in one household. Or, if my brother moved in with us and owned a handgun, or we lost our house and had to move in with my grandparents, who own plenty of hunting shotguns.

That is what the chart showed: multiple people living under one roof, each owning firearms of their own.

[DanTex]

41. 28% of Dems own a gun. Another 13% don't own a gun, but live with someone who owns a gun.

And 60% live in a no-gun household.

It's pretty simple.

[NickB79]

44. Read the title of that column again

It says "Other Household Member Owns Gun" to which 13% replied in the affirmative to that question.

So, if one spouse answered the phone and said "no, I don't own a gun, but my husband does", the husband gets listed in the "Other Household Member Owns Gun" category while the wife doesn't get counted in either.

It is indeed simple: 40% of Democratic households have AT LEAST one gun owner, while 60% have no guns. Within that 40% of Dem. gun owners, 28% of the respondents were gun owners, while 13% of the other people living in the respondent's household were gun owners.

How do you get 13% don't own a gun out of that response?

[DanTex]

48. Umm... let's try this again.

28% of Dems personally own a gun. That means that 72% of Dems do not personally own a gun. Of that other 72%, 13% live with someone who owns a gun, and 60% do not live with someone who owns a gun.

Really not complicated at all.

[NickB79]

54. More than one person can live in a household

What part of "Other Household Member Owns Gun" isn't clear?

28% of Dems personally own a gun.

Correct.

That means that 72% of Dems do not personally own a gun.

Incorrect, because that assumes that every Democrat polled lives alone. The person answering the poll may not personally own a gun, but their spouse might, which is where the 13% comes from.

60% do not live with someone who owns a gun.

Also correct.

You seem to be making the mistake in assuming that only the person answering the poll would also be the only gun owner in the household.

[DanTex]

57. ...

Incorrect, because that assumes that every Democrat polled lives alone. The person answering the poll may not personally own a gun, but their spouse might, which is where the 13% comes from.

If the person who answers the poll does not personally own a gun, that makes them a "non-gun-owner". People who don't own guns, but live with someone else who owns a gun (i.e. 13% of Democrats), by definition, are not "gun owners".

[bongbong]

63. Nope

> o, you must SUM the two columns to get a true number of gun owners, which comes out to be 55% Republican and 41% Democrat.

Nope, you have no idea what you're talking about. The poll results are very clear, and your spin is meaningless.

[B2G]

26. Household ownership is 40%

Which is more accurate than just asking the person who happened to pickup the phone. It accounts for spousal ownership.

Deal with it.

[former9thward]

51. It is far more than 40%.

I and no one I know would truthfully answer a question about gun ownership to a total stranger. Who knows who they really are and what they are going to use the information for.

[bongbong]

62. Prove it

> Which is more accurate than just asking the person who happened to pickup the phone. It accounts for spousal ownership.

Prove it, or STFU.

[B2G]

70. You are hopeless

buh bye

[bongbong]

71. Numbers can't be explained away

Those pesky facts the Delicate Flowers want to spin.

[sarisataka]

30. Total votes for Obama 60,459,974

Let's assume they also voted for Dems in other offices
28%= 16,928,792

Midterm elections always have lower turnout so let's cut that by 30%=11,850,154

and say only 40% change their vote=4,740,061

Obama won the popular vote by 2,805,992

What would Karl Rove give to have that kind of a swing? Over 2x Obama's victory total swinging Republican over a single issue. It is not a scenario I would like to see; Obama's last two years facing a hostile Congress.

Give it some thought, is the political fallout worth the action taken... Is an AWB as ineffective as we saw in '94 worth a drastic shift in power? Even if crime drops, will most people understand if there is a cause-effect relationship, or will they listen when the NRA reminds them 'He came for some of your guns now he is coming for the rest...'

[DanTex]

55. What makes you think 40% of gun-owning Dems would swing right?

And what makes you think we wouldn't make as many gains from independents or Republicans that support gun control?

Polls consistently show that most people are supportive of much of what Obama looks to be proposing -- universal background checks, limits on magazine capacities, and even AWB. And yet the meme that gun control is unpopular persists. Why is that?

[sarisataka]

58. Mostly

a guess- take the rough disapproval of AWB in polls, and consider gun owners vote somewhat more than non-gun owners. Figure executive action over Congressional rejection mobilizes under boogeyman fears.

And what makes you think we wouldn't make as many gains from independents or Republicans that support gun control?

For the same reason you don't believe it would happen

Polls consistently show that most people are supportive of much of what Obama looks to be proposing -- universal background checks, limits on magazine capacities, and even AWB. And yet the meme that gun control is unpopular persists. Why is that?

Too many are trying to skew number to their favor so every poll can be questioned. IMO the barrage of questions muddies the water so to say most want increased GC is true. How much more GC is not being well defined.
Give the devil his due, LaPierre is a master of taking three unrelated facts and spinning them into an alternate reality. If Obama uses executive orders, it won't be Congress' fault it will be because 'the support of the people was not there'. NY is handing over live 'proof' of the incremental argument, to 10 rounds are ok, then 7, then...
It will only take one spree killer to 'show' this round of GC is a failure- worst of all, if it is a school shooting it would 'prove' the NRA plan was correct.

[bongbong]

64. Meaningless rant

What does this have to do with my post?

Methinks your gun-religion has given you a permanent case of Fried Brain.

[sarisataka]

67. Thanks bb

That was a very descriptive title for your post

[bongbong]

68. LOL

I haven't heard "I know you are but what am I?" since 2nd grade, where it was considered a very witty saying!

[sarisataka]

69. Anything to make your day better

[DanTex]

12. A lot of the controversy on DU is due a high amount of NRA troll traffic.

Gun nuts tend to be very vocal. But, most Democratic gun owners are sane people, they are not the NRA-talking-point-repeating lunatics that we've seen polluting GD for the last few weeks.

Everything that's been discussed, including an Assault Weapons Ban, polls well over 50% of the population, and even higher among Democrats. In fact, polls I've seen even show a ban on all semi-automatics poll over 50%.

I don't disagree that it could get ugly. The right-wing crazies will make it ugly, the same as they did with health-care. The public option polled over 50%, but the GOP blocked it. The same teabaggers who yelled about "death panels" at town hall meetings are going yell about Hitler and Stalin this time around.

[NickB79]

18. A renewed AWB is hanging right around 50% overall

Depending on which poll you read. The window seems to be 45-55% in favor, more among Democrats and less among Republicans.

For example, here is a poll that found 58% in favor of a new AWB: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/01/14/National-Politics/Polling/release_192.xml

However, here's one that found 51% against a new AWB: http://www.gallup.com/poll/159569/americans-stricter-gun-laws-oppose-bans.aspx

[DanTex]

23. The Washington Post poll has AWB 58-39. And hi-cap mags 65-32.

A policy that is supported by 58% of Americans shouldn't be unthinkably controversial, but unfortunately special interests often have more power than the will of the people.

Note also that a ban on semi-auto handguns is up by 51-46. So, in a sane world, universal background checks, and hi-cap mags would pass easily, and even the AWB would pass easily, while a ban on semi-auto handguns would be close.

[NickB79]

28. And the Gallup poll shows the opposite

With a majority against a renewed AWB.


And here's a Gallup poll that found 74% of respondents opposed a handgun ban: http://www.gallup.com/poll/159569/americans-stricter-gun-laws-oppose-bans.aspx

That's why I posted two different graphs: to illustrate that there is still a question as to what the American people actually want to see done. Different polls give different results, and we must look at multiple polls to get a clearer picture of the public sentiment. Right now it still looks pretty murky IMO.

[DanTex]

31. Gallup seems to be the outlier here.

The polls I've seen since Sandy Hook all have a majority in favor of the AWB. Here's a Pew poll that finds support for AWB and also for a ban on all semi-automatics.
http://www.people-press.org/2013/01/14/in-gun-control-debate-several-options-draw-majority-support/

Maybe it depends on the wording.

[nick of time]

50. "Maybe it depends on the wording".

And that right there is why I take polls with a huge grain of salt.
You're right, it all depends on how the question is asked.

[jberryhill]

27. So "gun owners" as a solid block, do not support reasonable regulations?

I own a car and I support all sorts of mandatory policies in relation to the regulation of them. I also support steadily increasing corporate average fleet economy figures for them, and all sorts of things which (a) reduce environmental and health impacts, and (b) improve safety.

The notion that every "gun owner" is a La Pierre clone is a delusion.

[DanTex]

35. Of course not. It's just another NRA talking point.

The NRA crowd would like everyone to believe that every person who has an old shtogun locked away and gathering dust will fight to the death against a ban on 30-round magazines. But in reality, polls often find that many gun owners are in favor of a lot of gun control measures being discussed.

[Hoyt]

53. Fortunately, a small number of Dems are gun cultists.

People may own a gun or two, but few Dems have a weapons cache, carry in public, consider shooting targets that resemble people good wholesome family fun, are unwilling to give a little to keep society safe, would vote for Republicans over guns, etc.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

3. There will be a few changes on the Federal level and then some new shiny will distract everyone

I expect actual enforcement of the Brady Bill and other laws as well as doing better background checks. That can be done by EO and the rest will fade.

Some states may do more but are waiting to see what happens on the Federal level. Some states are already setting up to reject additional Federal restrictions.

[shadowrider]

37. Texas and Wyoming. I expect more n/t

[Johonny]

4. gun and ammo sales will go up

if it is possible to increase over the insane high rate it is now.

[nick of time]

8. Went to my local Feed and Gun Store today,

shelves and walls were berefit of any firearms and ammo stocks were bare, aske owner when next shipment of .223 would come in, he shrugged his shoulders and told me that my guess was as good as his.

He told me it was that way at every gun store in town.

[bongbong]

19. Hmmm

Seems there's a lot of fear-filled Delicate Flowers out your way.

I'm betting the fear comes from the darkness of the skin of the current inhabitant of the White House.

[nick of time]

24. I doubt it.

I live in a pretty blue town. I actually went there to buy some chicken scratch and thought that while I was there, I would pick up another box of .223.
None to be had now or in the near future, which is ok, I still have another box at home.
My AR-15 is used only to shoot coyotes that become a problem for my chickens and ducks. I don't use it for target practice or for carrying around in town or some such nonsense.
If I want to target practice, I have a .22 rifle for that, much cheaper on ammo.

[bongbong]

61. LOL

Fear rules the Delicate Flowers. I'm more aware of this fact than the Flowers themselves!

[NickB79]

15. I'd give it even odds that they'll vote in more pro-gun politicians

Lots of moderate Democrats own guns, and the fear the NRA is capitalizing on doesn't help things. Expect states like Ohio to be tougher to win for the next few years.

[bongbong]

20. Link?

> Lots of moderate Democrats own guns

Prove it.

[NickB79]

29. You were just actively discussing it upthread

Did you happen to see my post, #25?

And to add some anecdotal evidence, I work in a factory in the Twin Cities, MN, a very progressive state. Our factory is part of the Teamster's Union, so most of my coworkers are vote Democratic (though I'm probably one of the most liberal ones working there). I have heard so many of my coworkers bitching about feared gun bans and the need to stock up on ammo and magazines before they're outlawed, it's just crazy. And these are men and women I know voted for Obama in the last election.

Like I said, it's only anecdotal, but it makes me worry about other states here in the Midwest that have a strong tradition of unions AND a strong tradition of hunting and gun ownership. Even if new gun laws just discourage moderate Democrats from going to the polls in frustration, that could still be enough to swing a close election.

[bongbong]

65. Hearsay evidence is ....

worthless.

[B2G]

32. My turn now

[bongbong]

66. LOL

Are you laughing at your own inability to support your Delicate "arguments"?

[Meg_Griffin_1]

21. Agree! n/t

[Lurks Often]

36. States that will probably vote Republican in 2016

if major control legislation passes and maybe even if it doesn't pass:

FL (29 EV), VA (13 EV), OH (18 EV), PA (20 EV), NV (6 EV), CO (9 EV), NM (5 EV), IA (6 EV).

That's 106 electoral votes that will probably end up in the Republican column in 2016

[Berserker]

47. Here is a few more

Wisconsin - 10
Minnesota - 10
Michigan - 16
and several other states where there is a lot of gun owners and sportsman.

[ElbarDee]

17. I am not sure what will happen,

but, being a person who believes that guns should be banned completely, I am not sure if the President can do that with only executive orders. I don't think that the current definition of the 2nd Amendment is correct, however, any attempt to change it will be taken to the USSC. Hopefully there we can get the change in what people think the 2nd Amendment should mean, and guns in the hands of the people will be removed for good.

[Socal31]

60. See, now THERE is a plan that makes sense.

If we can get the SCOTUS to declare that methamphetamine is not guaranteed due to "Pursuit of Happiness," then we will have rid this country of two evils for good.

[Mojorabbit]

34. We will lose the midterms. nt

[NickB79]

40. That's my fear as well

And if sweeping gun control legislation DOES pass, we could possibly lose the presidency in 2016.

I'm constantly amazed that so many DU'ers don't seem to grasp the fact that there are real risks associated with proposing new gun control legislation. It's not like if it doesn't pass, it's no harm, no foul.

[libdem4life]

38. Hopefully we can learn to separate gun ownership from gun paranoia. Guns will always be with some

of us, for varying reasons or geographical location, or stages in life. I prefer banning, but having lived in both Red and Blue states, know it is no more realistic that banning high emissions gasoline engines or supplanting foreign oil and the military control/bases/pipelines to ship and protect said supply with renewable resources...not going to happen. It's a process of public as well as private, but mostly corporate weaning.

But we can be smart...and cooperative...and begin to feature the bizarre and amazing and lethal crazies that evolve out of the newly publicized argument/conversation. It's not them the news media encourages...they are already crazy beyond any help (including mental health)...it's the everyday majority/the voters who will have to become responsible...thus holding our elected officials to that same responsibility.

If Sandy Hook doesn't do it for the responsible gun folk, sad to think what will have to happen...whose kids or family are sacrificed next...and it will happen...to change the politics the social approval and the greed of the unregulated, grossly profitable and consciousness-lacking NRA, their supporters and other apologists.

Machine guns, no matter how parsed and justified, as social policy are NOT OK... NOT EVER.

Sorry, but anyone who can't bring it upon themselves to deprive society (any or all of their neighbors?) of modern WMDs out of some colonial, musketry militia past, we'll just have to wait it out.

[NickB79]

43. Who's talking about machine guns?

Those have been heavily regulated since 1934, and no new ones have been available for civilian purchase since 1987 due to legislation signed by Pres. Reagan.

[libdem4life]

45. Don't parse with me. I don't have to be PC to know murder, death and mayhem. So sorry not to have

the appropriate name (proudly).

You tell me with what weapon some everyday Rambo can mow down a class of kids and 6 adults first. Oh that's right, we have hundreds of weapons that can do that. Go tell it to the parents and the families. Better yet, attend some funerals, pay some respects and pay the mortuary...$5,000 and up.

[NickB79]

49. If you want to discuss gun control, you need to get the basics down

Or you look silly trying to ban guns that were already effectively banned decades ago, and don't do a damn thing to address effective ways to prevent future shootings.

[libdem4life]

59. No I don't. And I never use the word "ban"...explicitly and purposely so...because I don't know.

nor do I want to know. So nobody can argue that with me. I'll leave that to the experts.

I do know what a majority of gun owners want...protection for the most part...and they don't need a degree to figure it out, either. But as to the all guns for all people of all caliber apologists, neither do you need to be a doctor to know that someone who is throwing up or green at the gills is sick. (analogy)

But when officials are seriously talking about arming teachers to protect their own students? It doesn't take an A student, even a first grade A student, to figure out his teacher shouldn't have to learn to kill a human being to protect him against some "multiple shot---mass murder---legal weapon" wacko, his classmates and herself.

Those are basics, my friend. Again, talk to me about the size of the holes as they pass through kids, (or adults) how many kids grouped up in a small room can be mutilated in a few seconds by any of those "gun basics" factoids...that's reality. What size is acceptable...you tell me because I'm purposely ill-informed about gun gore. I'll bet you don't know. I'n not going to play the parsing self-righteous gun caliber minutia. It's demeaning to our species. Clearly, those who mutilate have not been "banned".

I'm a moderate...if you feel the need to risk owning firearms to protect yourself and your family or go hunting...OK. Pay for the privilege, so the rest of us don't have to support the crazies who share your paranoia. And I don't care if it is a single shot or an AK whatever. Pay to clean it up.

[Blue_Tires]

46. Doesn't the house oppose 95% of everything Obama does, anyway?

[Warpy]

52. Crazy men who own guns will adjust their nuts and order the wife to bring another beer

The rest of us will be very angry at the Republicans for blocking more and more necessary reform.

[PDJane]

56. The smaller number of people with larger numbers of guns and heavier weaponry should be alarming....

But it isn't. The kids seem to be collateral damage. If you think a gun is going to help you 'protect yourself,' you're delusional. The whole argument for guns is based on half truths, and it's crazy.

The gun dungeon aside, the truth of the matter is that guns do kill people, and the nuts behind the guns are interchangeable.

[derby378]

72. "Gun Safety" or "Gun Control?"

Be careful what you wish for...

[global1]

74. I Thought I'd Frank Luntz It In Reverse And Use A Less Explosive Word..... nt