Retail Sales Forecasted to Grow 3.4% in 2013

[Sherman A1]

The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) 2013 economic forecast projects retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) to increase 3.4 percent, slightly less than the preliminary 4.2 percent growth seen in 2012.

The subdued forecast comes on the heels of a holiday season that went head-to-head with Washington’s political wrangling over fiscal concerns, shifting consumers’ spending plans downward. In the end, holiday sales in 2012 grew 3 percent.

Shop.org, NRF’s digital division, expects online sales in 2013 to grow between 9 and 12 percent; online sales in 2012 during the months of November and December last year grew 11.1 percent.

“What we witnessed during the holiday season is an indication of what we are likely to see in 2013. Consumers read troubling economic headlines every day and look at their bottom lines at the end of the month, and they don’t like what they see,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Pushing fiscal policy decisions down the road will lead to even greater uncertainty, and will continue to impact consumers’ desire and ability to spend on discretionary items.”

http://www.progressivegrocer.com/top-stories/headlines/consumer-insights/id37322/retail-sales-forecasted-to-grow-3-4-in-2013/

[JHB]

1. How have past forecasts tracked with reality?

That's a number you never see included with these things.

[davidpdx]

2. Retailers are hurting in the US

I know several large companies are on the verge of going out of business. Hopefully the economy continues to pickup and things get better in the 1st quarter.