Ignorance leads to...confidence !? The Dunning Kruger effect

[KurtNYC]

It is often said in big companies that 'incompetence rises to the top.' I have seen it in several businesses but studies like the ones below make it clear how real and how bad this flaw in human nature can be.

The essence of the Dunning-Kruger effect is that "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge." Studies have shown that the most incompetent individuals are the ones that are most convinced of their competence. At work this translates into lots of incompetent people who think they are superstars. And what is worse is that if you have a manager that doesn't closely supervise work, he or she may judge performance based on outward appearances using information like the confidence with which these incompetent blockheads speak.

An important corollary of this effect is that the most competent people often underestimate their competence. This is a result of how you frame knowledge. The more you know, the more you focus on what you don't know. For instance, people who can name 15 of the 50 state capitals tend to think "I know 15." People who know 45 of the 50 state capitals tend to think "I don't know 5." I've experienced the same thing at work. When I worked as an engineer designing electronics for military applications, one of our best problem solvers was constantly overlooked by management. He was one of the go-to guys, the kind that you pull in when you have a problem that no one can figure out, but our organizational structure was such that the people who controlled your promotions were usually not the people you worked for. As a result, we had to basically start an internal campaign to get him promoted when many of his peers made it to the next level while he was overlooked. All the while, a few engineers who could talk better than they could actually perform were promoted ahead of him.

http://www.businesspundit.com/why-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-ruining-your-business/

The original researchers, Dunning and Kruger, working at Cornell reached these scarey and damning conclusions:

1. incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill,
2. incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others,
3. incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy,
4. if they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

http://www.amerika.org/social-reality/the-dunning-kruger-effect/

I have seen this stuff go on in one group after another and on a national level but I never knew it had a name or research to back it up, so I feel stupid..which, according to this research, means that I am brilliant.

[Fumesucker]

1. The prime reason Republicans win over a segment of the population

And what is worse is that if you have a manager that doesn't closely supervise work, he or she may judge performance based on outward appearances using information like the confidence with which these incompetent blockheads speak.

If you don't have a clue what's going on Republicans just sound more confident than Democrats.

ETA: Also too, hire teenagers while they still know everything and I say that as someone who once was a teenager.

[KurtNYC]

2. Colbert did a bit where he riffed on how some audiences equate loud voice and confidence with

"must be correct" and how TV personalities like his nemesis exploit this.

[Fumesucker]

3. The funny thing is you ask the same person a question in their area of expertise

And you'll get the same kind of diffident, shades-of-grey answer an expert so often gives.

But they're not self aware enough to notice it happening in others.

[CrispyQ]

4. This describes most managers out there.

And what is worse is that if you have a manager that doesn't closely supervise work, he or she may judge performance based on outward appearances using information like the confidence with which these incompetent blockheads speak.

I worked in a large group once & we only saw the manager occasionally. One day someone didn't show up for work so we assumed she called in sick. When she didn't show the third day, someone asked him when she was coming back. He didn't even know she was out. Turns out, she'd left him a vmail saying she was out on funeral leave & he hadn't bothered to listen to it at the time. He saved it for later & then forgot, probably cuz it was only from someone under him, not over him.