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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat’s the Deal with Hong Kong?
Whats the Deal with Hong Kong?
Josh Marshall
<...>
Lets start by saying that the US has very long arms when it comes to seeking the extradition of people whove broken the laws at quite Snowdens scale. But Hong Kong is a really, really curious destination. In the Guardian interview Snowden said he chose Hong Kong in part because they have a spirited commitment to free speech and the right of political dissent. Theres some truth to that, certainly in the context of China. But he also seemed to downplay that repressive nature of the Chinese government...Glenn Greenwald seemed to want to help Snowden preempt the idea that he is somehow putting himself under the protection of Americas enemies to evade the consequences of his actions. Ive always been basically a dove on the subject of China. By which I mean that broadly speaking I dont buy that China is our enemy or - certainly in military terms - presents much near term threat to the United States. But just as clearly China is a key, probably the key, geo-strategic competitor to the United States in the world today.
So lets face it. Even though Im tentatively willing to accept Snowdens claim that he is doing this only because he thinks its right, he still seems to be hoping to evade the criminal consequences by defecting to China, a key US rival and one that comes up rather short of being the kind of libertarian and transparent society Snowden apparently believes in.
Look, I get it. He doesnt want to go to prison. I dont blame him. He says in the article that his highest hope is get asylum in Iceland. I can pretty much guarantee you that thats not going to happen. A small country that wants to be close friends of the United States is not going to do that. I could see arguments for Russia or Venezuela or perhaps Iran. But of all the places where you might have a shot at not getting extradited, Chinas not a bad choice. Hong Kong might even give you the best of both worlds, hosted by repressive government which is a US rival and yet living in a city with Western standards of openness, wealth, etc.
But the decision to go to China inevitably colors his decision and sets up what could be a very uncomfortable diplomatic stand-off. Ive seen people linking to the current US-Hong Kong extradition treaty. Call me naive but I think this is going to come down to how Beijing wants to play this. If they dont want a fight over this, Snowdens toast. If they like the optics of it, I dont think it matters what that extradition treaty says. Chinas a big enough player and the US has enough other fish to fry with the Chinese, that the US is not going to put the bilateral relationship on the line over this guy. And the Chinese might relish granting asylum to an American running from the claws of US state repression.
http://editors.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/06/whats_the_deal_with_hong_kong.php
Josh Marshall
<...>
Lets start by saying that the US has very long arms when it comes to seeking the extradition of people whove broken the laws at quite Snowdens scale. But Hong Kong is a really, really curious destination. In the Guardian interview Snowden said he chose Hong Kong in part because they have a spirited commitment to free speech and the right of political dissent. Theres some truth to that, certainly in the context of China. But he also seemed to downplay that repressive nature of the Chinese government...Glenn Greenwald seemed to want to help Snowden preempt the idea that he is somehow putting himself under the protection of Americas enemies to evade the consequences of his actions. Ive always been basically a dove on the subject of China. By which I mean that broadly speaking I dont buy that China is our enemy or - certainly in military terms - presents much near term threat to the United States. But just as clearly China is a key, probably the key, geo-strategic competitor to the United States in the world today.
So lets face it. Even though Im tentatively willing to accept Snowdens claim that he is doing this only because he thinks its right, he still seems to be hoping to evade the criminal consequences by defecting to China, a key US rival and one that comes up rather short of being the kind of libertarian and transparent society Snowden apparently believes in.
Look, I get it. He doesnt want to go to prison. I dont blame him. He says in the article that his highest hope is get asylum in Iceland. I can pretty much guarantee you that thats not going to happen. A small country that wants to be close friends of the United States is not going to do that. I could see arguments for Russia or Venezuela or perhaps Iran. But of all the places where you might have a shot at not getting extradited, Chinas not a bad choice. Hong Kong might even give you the best of both worlds, hosted by repressive government which is a US rival and yet living in a city with Western standards of openness, wealth, etc.
But the decision to go to China inevitably colors his decision and sets up what could be a very uncomfortable diplomatic stand-off. Ive seen people linking to the current US-Hong Kong extradition treaty. Call me naive but I think this is going to come down to how Beijing wants to play this. If they dont want a fight over this, Snowdens toast. If they like the optics of it, I dont think it matters what that extradition treaty says. Chinas a big enough player and the US has enough other fish to fry with the Chinese, that the US is not going to put the bilateral relationship on the line over this guy. And the Chinese might relish granting asylum to an American running from the claws of US state repression.
http://editors.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/06/whats_the_deal_with_hong_kong.php
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What’s the Deal with Hong Kong? (Original Post)
ProSense
Jun 2013
OP
I cannot imagine China wants him. Too much aggravation that's not their doing..n/t
monmouth3
Jun 2013
#3
emulatorloo
(44,072 posts)1. Fascinating
Always enjoy reading TPM, very informative.
usGovOwesUs3Trillion
(2,022 posts)2. To Escape the Reach of the National Security State is my take, too
Not sure how effective that will be in the end, but I also think that this would be a propaganda quo for the Chinese to offer political asylum to an American, instead of the other way around.
monmouth3
(3,871 posts)3. I cannot imagine China wants him. Too much aggravation that's not their doing..n/t
ProSense
(116,464 posts)4. Kick! n/t