Get ready, it's going to be a week of Fireworks (Politically)

[Firebrand Gary]

The Supreme Court has just handed down all of their decisions for the day and the "Big Four" are still outstanding. It's likely that the four cases will come down next week. In my opinion, the convergence of all four cases coming down during the same week, while Congress is almost certain to pass immigration reform, its just too coincidental.

When you want to hide the needles, you bury them in the haystack. What are the needles?

[Pab Sungenis]

1. My prediction? DOMA upheld.

Voting to uphold it: Scalia (writing), Thomas, Alito, Roberts, Kagan.

They're hoping to avoid the backlash.

[cynatnite]

2. You think Kagan would vote to uphold DOMA?

Why?

[Firebrand Gary]

4. I think you're right in the attempt to avoid the backlash, however...

I think DOMA is going down and Prop 8 is going to be referred back to the decision of the lower court (essentially striking it down as well).

I think they are going to sidestep it striking down section 5 and affirmative action. Additionally, congress is going to pass immigration reform (imo) so that when the court strikes down section 5 and affirmative action, they can claim they "support" minorities.

[Pab Sungenis]

7. I pray you are correct.

However, since Kagan has said that there is no right to marriage, we can't count on her vote. We need both Roberts and Kennedy, and Roberts will not be the 5th Justice voting to strike it down, only the 6th or greater.

Prop 8, I agree with your prediction. Sent back for lack of standing.

[alsame]

3. My predictions

We win on DOMA and Prop 8, lose voting rights and affirmative action.

[Firebrand Gary]

5. I think you are right. I think all four are going to be struck down, one way or another.

The only one that might have a chance, is the voting rights act. Striking it down would do significant damage to the ideological right. Essentially it would destroy the Republicans chance to compete nationally for multiple generations.

[alsame]

6. Yes, voting rights is a double edged sword for the

GOP...short term they could probably suppress enough votes in several states to get the White House but long term they will alienate too many demographic groups.