Why Edward Snowden Didn't Go To Havana

[flamingdem]

http://thehavananote.com/2013/06/why_edward_snowden_didnt_go_havana_cuba

** I predicted this one and I am glad that Cuba didn't risk damaging currently improving relations with the USA

VIVA CUBA!

Edward Snowden, the former NSA contractor on the run who leaked information about top secret surveillance activities at the NSA, didn't board the Aeroflot plane headed for Havana this morning as expected. Snowden, who flew from Hong Kong to Moscow this past weekend, was expected to transit Havana next, en route to either Venezuela or Ecuador (and Ecuador's President Correa is considered likely to accept him - afterall, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange remains holed up in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London after more than a year now). Snowden's transit through Havana seemed obvious to many, given the decades-long tensions with the U.S., which is seeking Snowden's return and has charged him with espionage. And Havana has accepted U.S. fugitives since the 1960's - the most notorious of whom has recently been added to the FBI's most wanted list, Joanne Chesimard, a former Black Panther member who killed a New Jersey State Trooper. Many of these fugitives remain on the island today and their status is expected to be addressed in the course of any normalization of relations. So imagine the world's surprise when Snowden didn't turn up for the Havana-bound flight for which he was reportedly booked.

But perhaps not everyone was surprised that Snowden didn't board that flight. In the State Department's 2006 report detailing why it would continue to list Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, it noted that Cuban authorities had given assurances they would no longer accept "new" U.S. fugitives (whether their crimes were considered political or not). Allowing Snowden to transit Cuba would be a break of faith from that assurance given. Allowing a fugitive to transit your territory is tantamount to giving refuge, as the fugitive wouldn't be able to reach their ultimate destination without the transit stop. My guess is that the message somehow got to Snowden that if he traveled through Cuba he would be detained and possibly even returned to the United States (I suppose an immediate return wouldn't be certain; he would be the highest value fugitive to pass through in quite some time, for sure, and I imagine the Cubans might be tempted to consider whether they could trade him for one or all of their remaining Cuban Five. But such a strategy might backfire, of course).

[flamingdem]

1. Look down below it's one of our own in the comments!

Nice use of the word Obozo Daniel, I'll keep that in mind when reading your work on DU

Daniel537

I'm not buying this. Cuba has more to gain from taking Snowden in than from rejecting him. What exactly would the US do to punish Cuba? Slap an embargo on them? Also, considering how much the Cuban media has been praising Snowden and Wikileaks, it would be the ultimate hypocrisy to actually detain him and send him to the US in exchange for nothing. And of course, this is to say nothing of the amount of useful info the Cubans could get from Snowden regarding the NSA. My guess is this was either a headfake, or Snowden backed out once it leaked that he was heading to Cuba. Either way, if he eventually ends up in Cuba he should treated for what he is, a hero.

P.S., if the U.S. can't even get Hong Kong to comply, what makes you think Cuba would even consider giving Obozo a hand?

[one_voice]

6. That person is a member...

here?

[flamingdem]

7. Yes, he posts in Latin America and has recently

responded to my posts in GD.

I suppose that there might be a problem with identifying him but the Obozo comment is too much

[one_voice]

8. Ya know nothing surprises me anymore...

a member here spells Obama's name like this: 0bama. I'd only seen wingers do that till a few days ago when I saw it here.

[flamingdem]

9. Daniel also posts with the same handle

on the Miami Herald and the Nuevo Herald. He's clearly not concerned that people know his views. He's not so bad about Cuba, but this is the first time I realized he is a near bagger.

[hlthe2b]

2. Castro and now, his brother, are both well schooled in American politics...

They see the political landscape with RETHUGS in charge-- that even basic immigration policy is doomed by the "reactive RW" and that the odds for a change in the 54 year old stand off are not good. Dangling these kind of "conditions" for "future prospects" is not something I could imagine anyone in Cuba would be bowled over by nor lead to undue concern.

I really have my doubt that Cuba would have turned him over--particularly when Hong Kong and even Russia will not.

[flamingdem]

3. I don't think they would have turned him over, it's that they don't want him even in transit

because they have made a pledge to the USA to return all fugitives.

If they violate that they'll never get off the list of suspected terrorists or move forward on other agreements.

The US has really mistreated Cuba, this is clear, but realpolitik being what it is Cuba has to get in line. They
know that the issue was captured by a handful of corrupt Cuban Americans who win congressional seats over
and over again. So it's a waiting game but we all know better relations are on the way.

[hlthe2b]

4. Neither Castro will live to see Cuba taken off that or any other US enemy list (& they KNOW it)

Meh...

US is just puffing its chest and the world knows it. This is the legacy of GWB* and the sad fact that Obama has failed to turn the tide when it comes to our excesses.

[flamingdem]

5. I think that's all up to the Cuban Americans and their power

You may be right because Robert Menendez has the power to stop changes.

Obama will ease things in other ways going forward, I think

[Mika]

11. Oh please. Anyone who closely follows the money knows that Miami's exiles are only cover.

No group loves the US sanctions on Cuba more than the self proclaimed anti embargo US politicians.
End the embargo and ... poof ... there goes a high dollar campaign funding stream from pro trade groups (mostly Big Ag).

As soon as one gets their head around this perverse distortion of foreign relation with stagecraft, then one can wrap their head around the need for scapegoats... and the anti Castro Miami Cuban diaspora are more than happy to oblige because it gets their campaigns funded and they win elections in S Florida - where running an anti Castro/anti Cuba plank in their platform is pretty much a requirement. Repuglican and Dem.

Mission accomplished - many Americans fall for the stagecraft and blame the Miami Cubano exiles for all of this ridiculousness.

Yet another reason to end the private/corporate funding of US campaigns - which is at the heart of US policy towards Cuba.

[flamingdem]

12. Wouldn't the Big Ag guys fund the pro-Cuba anti-embargo pols?

>>there goes a high dollar campaign funding stream from pro trade groups (mostly Big Ag).



True that many non Cuban-American pols get funds if they're anti-Cuba - Debbie Wasserman Schulz, Bill Nelson included
but if they didn't have Ros-Lehtinen etc. in the lead they'd likely moderate their views.

.. if I'm following here

[Mika]

13. You missed it entirely.

No Cuba embargo = no funding streams to those who oppose the embargo.

Get it? Why would US pols take action that would destroy a major funding stream? US politics has turned perception on its head.
That is just why the sanctions have continued for 50+ years no matter what popular opinions is.
Maintaining the status quo maintains the funding FOR BOTH SIDES.

[flamingdem]

15. I read you first "anti" as a "pro"

Well it's new to me that anti-embargo politicians benefit much from campaign contributions.

Who would that be? Jeff Flake .. not many now who are strong with this right?

Big Ag should want an opening, but I'm guessing you are saying that they don't want certain states to gain advantage.

Well then there are USAID recipients, that bunch is shadowy but mostly pro-embargo, no?

[Mika]

18. No. What I'm saying is that pols don't want to kill funding streams...

... Regardless of what their contributors want. Its all stagecraft.

[malaise]

17. This +1,000

This is the legacy of GWB* and the sad fact that Obama has failed to turn the tide when it comes to our excesses.

[avebury]

10. The US has become nothing more then a schoolyard bully

where Cuba is concerned. It is absurd that we have not normalized relations with Cuba. We did with China, Viet Nam, Russia, etc. We have also helped to overthrow democratically elected governments like Allende in Chili (if the government was not one that we approved of). The US is in no position to even think of playing the holier then thou card. It has been over 50 years since the Cuban Revolution and we just need to get over it. The Castros will not live forever and the US needs to stop acting so petty.

[KharmaTrain]

14. Also A Thriving Underground Economy...

...every day more cruise ships come calling at the Cuban resorts, Cuban ex-pats in Southern Florida still make remittances to their families on the island and there are all sorts of other under-the-radar deals going on (the byproduct of direct state contact with the Havana government) that are putting much needed dollars in the Cuban economy. Yes...they still use the dollar and there's no "big brother" like a Russia or Venezuela who can shovel money to replace the loss of American dollars.

In short...Snowden isn't worth it to them...

[flamingdem]

16. They did use the dollar up until about 5 years ago

Now they use convertible currency in its place 1 CUC roughly equivalent to a dollar but if you bring dollars in they take a 12% fee from what I know.