Update: Dollars to donuts Snowden is in the Venezuelan Embassy in Moscow

[flamingdem]

Just saw this from a British journalist:

Jon Williams ?@WilliamsJon 23 Jun

Interfax: Snowden overnights at Venezuelan embassy. Diplomatic car from plane to embassy. Formally never steps in #Russia, so no visa needed


Erin whatsername making her CNN show all about "where's Snowden"

If someone would just read Russian media reports they'd see that witnesses saw a diplomatic car pickup two people at the airport. They were let off the plane before all the others. The plates were of the Educadorian Embassy.

What he did was use diplomatic immunity to leave the airport.

What Ecuador has is a mess on their hands because they'll have to let him stay there if Russia wishes to court favor w/the USA

Anything other than that means that Russia allowed him to leave without arrest. Something I doubt.

[bigwillq]

1. MMM, donuts.

[flamingdem]

3. I donut know for sure

but you reminded me it's time for my afternoon sugar pick me up!

[bigwillq]

4. Pick me up a chocolate glazed!

[Art_from_Ark]

2. And then again, they could just be picking up a staff member

or some Ecuadorian bigwig.

[flamingdem]

7. True, they weren't able to ID the two

But it follows that a Wikileaks lawyer went there, Snowden had a physical at the airport by the Ecuadoran Embassy, and whisk 'em away. The drama would be no fun in the hotel rooms with nothing but a bed.

[Cali_Democrat]

5. dude is traveling with invalid documentation

his passport was revoked, but then again, Snowden never really had respect for silly laws and documentation.

[flamingdem]

8. Educador gave him special refugee travel document

They got up to their elbows before realizing all the elements of the drama.

[hack89]

11. I doubt such documents are actually legal

First off, Snowden does not meet the international definition of refugee. Don't forget that Ecuado, as we have seen in the Assange case, have unique definitions of international law that is not recognized by the rest of the world.

[dipsydoodle]

16. I'd have thought that if, as has happened , the US pulled his passport

he's effectively a refugee.

The document may refer to this : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Convention_Travel_Document

[hack89]

19. No - he is effectively a criminal fugitive

he is not stateless.

Refugee has a very specific meaning - perhaps you should take the time to research it.

[dipsydoodle]

20. Yes - one such definition

is a person who fears persecution in their own country.

Read Catherina's post : http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023086724

Chances are that most of the world would agree he rightly fears persecution in the US.

I'm part of the rest of the world : not the US.

[hack89]

26. Nowhere in that post is the actual definition of refugee as defined by international treaties

Of course he fears persecution in America - he broke US law.

Go find the Geneva treaties that defines refugee - it is much more complicated than you think.

[dipsydoodle]

29. You may have meant "than" : not "then"

I didn't quote Catherina's post in reference to the expression "refugee" : it was in reference to worldwide response. I searched the definitions of refugee and chose an appropriate one.

[hack89]

33. Worldwide response is irrelevent as to whether he is a refugee or not.

glad I could help you indulge in petty nitpicking - makes you feel smarter, doesn't it?

[okaawhatever]

42. Prosecution is not persecution: From the United Nations

Although the risk of persecution is central to the refugee definition, “persecution” itself is not defined in the 1951 Convention. Articles 31 and 33 refer to those whose life or freedom “was” or “would be” threatened, so clearly it includes the threat of death, or the threat of torture, or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.

A Convention refugee, by definition, must be unable or unwilling to avail him- or herself of the protection of the State or Government, and the notion of inability to secure the protection of the State is broad enough to include a situation where the authorities cannot or will not provide protection, for example, against the persecution of non-State actors

The Convention requires that the persecution feared be for reasons of “race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group (added at the 1951 Conference), or political opinion”. This language, which recalls the language of non-discrimination in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and subsequent human rights instruments, gives an insight into the characteristics of individuals and groups which are considered relevant to refugee protection. Persecution for the stated reasons implies a violation of human rights of particular gravity; it may be the result of cumulative events or systemic mistreatment, but equally it could comprise a single act of torture.

http://untreaty.un.org/cod/avl/ha/prsr/prsr.html

I would love to see Snowden make a claim of potential persecution in front of a group of individuals who were actually persecuted. He's a joke. He's not afraid of persecution, he's afraid of a jury of his peers.

[flamingdem]

30. Different wiki link for refugee travel document

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee_travel_document

[dipsydoodle]

6. Why would Russia wishes to court favor with the USA ?

[flamingdem]

9. Kerry explained that the US had given them 7 spies

and a few other things that point to slowly improving ties

[Benton D Struckcheon]

13. Yep, always something going on in diplomatic relations between countries,

especially between fellow members of the G-8 and fellow members of the Security Council. Obama and Putin may not like each other, but they do realize they have to deal with each other on a whole range of issues. Letting Snowden get in the way would be inconvenient for Putin.

[dipsydoodle]

17. I appreciate that kindness is its own reward

but doubt that will be taken into consideration.

Kerry's veiled threats have done little to help this situation - he's out of his depth.

[okaawhatever]

43. You think Kerry is out of his depth? That's funny. Let's not forget the

various legal agreements between the countries. This may be a matter of law, not just diplomacy.

[BeyondGeography]

10. As long as he has Internet access you can stick him anywhere

[randome]

12. If he stays with Ecuador, then Ecuador also has all those documents.

That doesn't seem like a smart move on their part. Seems like that would poison all future talks.

[hr]
[font color="blue"][center]You should never stop having childhood dreams.[/center][/font]
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[Benton D Struckcheon]

14. Small country, doesn't trade much with the US.

Long ago positioned themselves away from dealing with the US. They can take Snowden without a problem. Getting him there will be tough.

[flamingdem]

22. The problem is finding a transit country.

They only have Cuba and Venezuela to my knowledge and Cuba has agreed not to accept fugitives from the USA recently.

Looks like Venezuela is it if Russia agrees and if Ecuador really wants him.

[tammywammy]

24. The United States is Ecuador's major trading partner.

The US imported $9.3B of goods from Ecuador last year.

Edited to add: that's why there's been a push to renew our trade agreement with Ecuador that expires at the end of July.

[flamingdem]

27. For sure that's weighing on decisions

Correa tweeted about not letting Ecuador's interests get in the way of human rights, but that's a lot of dinero if the USA neglects to renew the agreements. Someone else here said they wouldn't do it anyway, so that may not be an incentive if Correa knows they are not getting the renewal

[Benton D Struckcheon]

34. That's a fishy figure,

no pun intended. No oil is exported from Ecuador to the US, and crude is 40% of their exports, and their number one export too. The rest is stuff like coffee and so on. I don't see how you get to 9.3 billion dollars worth of coffee, bananas, etc.

[tammywammy]

38. Here's a link

http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3310.html

Totals in Millions of US Dollars - 2012
Exports: 6,692.4
Imports: 9,484.8

And here: http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/ecuador

The five largest import categories in 2011 were: Mineral Fuel (crude) ($7.5 billion), Fish and Seafood (shrimp and prawns) ($673 million), Edible Fruit and Nuts (bananas, plantains) ($511 million), cocoa ($247 million), and Live Trees and Plants (cut flowers-roses) ($149 million).

[hack89]

32. Ecuador has a preferential free trade agreement with the US

they pay no tariffs on goods exported to America. This is a huge deal for them - there is much at stake.
We are their number one trading partner - they cannot take Snowden "without a problem." They would be screwing tens of thousands of their own people if they take Snowden.

In 2012, the United States imported nearly 9.3 billion dollars' worth of Ecuadorian products, according to the United States Census Bureau. For more than a century, Ecuador has been a strong trading partner with the United States. Since 1991 trade relations have been under two key trade preferences agreements: the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (APTA/ATPDEA) and/or the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences Program (GSP). These trade preferences agreements have allowed Ecuador to export products to the United States without paying an import tariff. This has helped keep the price of Ecuadorian products down while enabling Ecuador to be competitive with other exporting countries. But these agreements are due to expire on July 31, 2013 and without quick action from the U.S. government, when the agreements expire a highly increased tariff will be imposed, and the price of imported Ecuadorian products will go up.

The "Keep Trade Going" campaign is one method that Ecuador is using to encourage the U.S. Government to renew the ATPDEA and GSP so that Ecuadorian products will continue to be tariff-free. As an alternative, Ecuador would like to have more of its products classified under the GSP. "Trade relations between Ecuador and the United States are very positive. The United States is Ecuador's principal trading partner, and our business activities are important sources of jobs in both countries," said Mejia. "Renewing these trade preferences agreements and re-classifying some products under GSP would mean that trade between Ecuador and the U.S. could continue seamlessly while the two governments continue to develop new mutual cooperation agreements that could be broader and more far reaching. New trade preferences agreements with a broader extent in other cooperation areas would help Ecuador and the United States enjoy a more predictable and stable trade relationship while putting in place additional policies that benefit both countries."

http://voices.yahoo.com/keep-trade-going-campaign-highlights-ecuadors-importance-12122832.html

[Benton D Struckcheon]

35. Hmph. They defaulted on a bunch of debt a while back,

and replaced it with a loan from China. Been sending the majority of their oil there ever since.
Someone tweeted earlier today that in the entire history of the country it's never made a principal payment on a bond. No idea if that's true of course, but there's some weird inconsistency here. From the POV of the US, there'd be little reason to keep a trade agreement going with Ecuador.

[hack89]

36. From the POV of Ecuador, keeping America happy is very important. nt

[Benton D Struckcheon]

37. That's the inconsistency, though.

If it's so important, why would they have defaulted on all that debt, and then made a deal with China? That was way more damaging to their relations with the US than anything they do with Snowden. I can't imagine that trade deal being extended even without Snowden, much less with him as an issue.

[okaawhatever]

44. The Ecuador situation is complex, but many changes were made when Correa took

office. Correa hates the United States because his father was caught trafficking drugs, spent a couple of years in prison and when he came home to Ecuador he didn't do well. He committed suicide a few years later. Much has been said of Rafael's dislike for the US. He toned down his comments prior to running for office, but he had been quoted earlier as saying he blamed the US for the death of his father. That the US picked on poor people trying to make a living. Correa was educated in the United States and is married to a European woman. He has ties to countries that are contrary to many of his positions on human rights, economics, etc. Ecuador's primary attraction to many countries (especially those who are under sanctions) is the fact that Ecuador's national currency is the United States dollar. Iran, Venezuela and Cuba all need access to that. Correa wouldn't renew a lease to the US of an airport near the Colombian border. That happened shortly after he took office.
Correa is an enigma. He's very dynamic and well-liked but all of his motivations are suspect.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

46. Good info. Thanks. n/t

[tammywammy]

39. It's important to note that agreement ends 31 July. n/t

[hack89]

40. Which give the US enormous leverage. nt

[tammywammy]

41. Agreed.

IMO it would make more sense if it was Venezuela tweaking the US and not Ecuador. YMMV.

[okaawhatever]

45. I'll bet you $100 that's why he's going to Venezuela. Ecuador's currency is the

US dollar. It's been mentioned before that Ecuador's appeal to Iran, Cuba and Venezuela is due to Ecuador's access to the currency. I'm wondering if we could cut them off. We had good and improving relations with them until Correa took office. I wonder if we're interested in keeping them.

[flamingdem]

15. Here's something new: it was the Venezuelan embassy

** what do you mean by all those documents? seems you might be correct on this

Jon Williams ?@WilliamsJon 23 Jun

Interfax: Snowden overnights at Venezuelan embassy. Diplomatic car from plane to embassy. Formally never steps in #Russia, so no visa needed

[okaawhatever]

18. Seems likely. In an article I posted earlier this morning, it said the lights were on

in the second floor of the Ecuadoran embassy. It also mentioned that there were no sightings of Snowden at the airport, nor at the airport capsule hotel where he was supposed to be staying. I think Russia not only wanted to redirect attention, but also wanted plausible deniability. The claim was that the capsule hotel was part of an int'l section at the airport where one didn't need to go through customs to stay. It seems Russia would be able to claim that Snowden never showed a passport or any other document so they didn't have an opportunity to review the documents.

[flamingdem]

21. Maybe he moved out of the airport under diplomatic immunity

I just updated, who knows but it might be the Venezuelan Embassy.

Jon Williams ?@WilliamsJon 23 Jun

Interfax: Snowden overnights at Venezuelan embassy. Diplomatic car from plane to embassy. Formally never steps in #Russia, so no visa needed

[okaawhatever]

23. Hmmm...I wonder if the car on the runway was Venezuelan and not Ecuadoran? That

would make sense as there were several Ecuadoran embassy cars at the airport terminal. The one at the airport I don't think was carrying flags. I'd have to look at the video, but I think it was an assumption that it was Ecuadoran based on the cars at the terminal.
Ecuador and Venezuela are besties. I don't know if it's changed much since Chavez died, but Correa (President of Ecuador) said Hugo Chavez was like a father to him, etc. etc.
They've also both pledged support to Iran. Chavez "unconditionaly" and Correa "full support".

[flamingdem]

25. Yes, and there may be reasons that Ecuador

shouldn't have him at their embassy at this time if they've given him the special refugee document and haven't yet received the application for asylum.

Besties for sure so on the same page politically.

Plus, Venezuela will have to serve as the transit country if Cuba wants to keep with a recent pledge to the US to not accept fugitives from the USA.

[markiv]

28. it's donuts to dollars, now

that expression comes from a time when it was a confident bet to offer a dollar per donut in a bet

try buying a donut for a dollar

[flamingdem]

31. Thanks I didn't know the origin

even though I've been saying it forever