Nate Silver brings us back down to earth

[HERVEPA]

Indicating possible effects of current situation on 2014 election may be highly overstated.

http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown

[Turbineguy]

1. That's the downside.

By keeping the repubs from destroying the world economy it gives them a year to spin this.

[ChangeUp106]

2. And if Obama does Chanied CPI

They'll play the "cut SS" card

[Turbineguy]

3. But they can make their

base believe that SS does not come from the government.

[Dawgs]

4. Nate Silver is just one voice. He's not always right when making predictions. n/t

[sharp_stick]

5. He's right one hell of a lot more often

than anyone else I've seen.

[HERVEPA]

7. Exactly!

[Dawgs]

16. I'm not talking about elections results based on polls. n/t

[Cannikin]

13. He didn't let me down in 2012.

I tend to listen to his one voice over the larger polling organizations.

[Dawgs]

17. His results were no better than taking an average of the polls.

Not really that difficult.

[joeybee12]

6. They shut it down in 1995, still kept the House in the next election...

And I think the Senate also...

[HERVEPA]

8. That's included in the article, yes.

[MrBig]

9. Thanks for the link

His conclusions make a lot of sense and are well supported. As a Democrat, what I take away from this article is the importance of maintaining diligent GOTV efforts and NEVER assuming something is in the bag.

[Agnosticsherbet]

10. So tap dancing on the Republican Parties grave is a bit premature.

Taking of my tap shoes. I'll have to practice for that audition on So You Think You Can Dance some other way.

[msongs]

11. the solution? dems need to offer something worth voting FOR :-) nt

[NuclearDem]

12. Precisely!

We can't run an entire party based on "we're not them." We have actually need something substantive.

[Cannikin]

14. Indeed.

I criticize the other side for the exact same thing and tell them eventually they'll have to reveal a platform. I'd hate to have to eat my words when I find out we're in the same boat.

[Capt. Obvious]

15. I've been looking for Nate for some time

So this is where he's posting now (temp)?

I read in the news a few weeks ago he's going to stop doing politics.

[DonRedwood]

19. didn't ESPN hire him?

sad day for politics when that happened!

[Rod Beauvex]

20. Indeed.

I'm suprised it took this long. The powers that be have wanted him silenced for a long time now.

We'll see how this ESPN deal plays out.

[DonRedwood]

18. unless we get in this same tussle just before the next election...ahem, one year away....