Fuck Warren Buffett!

[whatchamacallit]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-buffett-basketball-bet-20140122,0,7653962.story#axzz2r97Tfmnf

Instead of simply donating the money to the needy or a just cause, let's play Instant Elite and give a billion dollars to an individual. It's the American way don'tcha know!

Someday we'll burn like Rome and I won't care.

[yawnmaster]

1. He doesn't expect to have to pay it out. It's a marketing gimmick. eom

[MineralMan]

2. OK, so fill out your brackets and donate that billion

when you win.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

3. should you really dismiss an entire person, because of one decision you don't agree with?

Buffet will also donate most of his fortune and supports Democrats and reduction of wealth inequality.

I don't know why you would just be so randomly harsh, because you don't like his action on one thing

[Schema Thing]

13. ^this

[sharp_stick]

4. Is it the marketing you object to?

because the odds of actually having to pay this out are pretty much zero.

Odds of someone randomly predicting a perfect bracket: 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808

Odds of someone predicting a perfect bracket if he or she knew basketball: 1-in-128 Billion

Odds of anyone in the U.S. predicting a perfect bracket if everyone knew basketball and everyone filled out a bracket: 1 in 400

[whatchamacallit]

6. No, it's the message

and example that I object to. Of all the things the 4th richest man in the world could with his money... Of course he knows he won't have to pony up, which makes the stunt even more pathetic.

[unblock]

7. that last one presumes that everyone fills out their form intelligently, but differently.

if everyone "knew basketball" but simply filled out the form based on team rankings, there would many duplicates, reducing buffett's chance of having to pay anyone out.

the worst case for buffett in theory is that everyone fills out the form differently, but with as few upsets as possible.

[unblock]

5. it's roughly a one in 9,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance (1 in 9 quintillion)

well, that's if you thought each of the 63 games was a 50-50 toss up.
it's actually not, so the chance of winning is considerably better.

for instance, i believe the top seed in each bracket has never lost to the bottom seed, so that's 4 games that are virtually guaranteed, bringing the odds to about 1 in half a quintillion. even if a match-up is 55-45%, that still helps bring down the odds.

still, buffett is a heavy, heavy favorite to never have to pay out on this.


however, the top 20 people *will* get $100,000, so that's $2 million that definitely will be paid. hardly a billion, but still.



of course, that billion isn't a billion, either. it's half a billion if you read the fine print. you only get "a billion" if you get it spread out over 40 years, which allows time and inflation to reduce its value, hence the roughly equivalent half billion lump-sum payout.

[whatchamacallit]

8. Yes the odds...

Not the point. The issue is the sickness at the heart of the American economic system.

[unblock]

15. agreed, though this is just another example of the lottery phenomenom.

many people laugh at lottery players on the grounds that lottery tickets have a small expected return (typically cited as about $0.50 on the dollar), and if the typical economist's assumption that money has a diminishing return in terms of utility, then lottery tickets look even sillier.

but this ignores the fact that for many people, lottery tickets are the only way to even conceive of upward class movement, and many are willing to give up a few inconsequential dollars in exchange for their only hope of making a meaningful difference in their lives and/or their children's lives. this makes buying lottery tickets seem much more reasonable and logical, and makes offering them seem much more exploitative. it also, of course, indicts the current economic system for putting far too many people in the situation where buying lottery tickets seems logical.


as far as i know, buffett's lottery ticket is free, although one's expected return is far, far below minimum wage.

[legcramp]

9. Oooh, let me get in on some DU cred points too!

I'm outraged! OUTRAGED I tell ya.

[whatchamacallit]

14. I predict your quest for cred will yield crud.

Welcome to DU. Enjoy your stay.

[joeglow3]

10. This HAS to be a joke topic

It is an actuarially calculated business decision. They insure these types of things all the time - hole-in-one prizes, half court shot prizes, etc.

There are MUCH more important things to focus our outrage on. Oh, but we only hold Buffet to that standard and not ourselves.

[whatchamacallit]

11. Quick everyone create a protective circle around the Vampire Squid!

You're well trained.

[1monster]

12. Well, I'm out of the running. All I know about the Final Four (or whatever he's talking about)

is that it's college basketball... But I have a slightly better chance at it than my son, who thought it was football of some sort or another...

[madokie]

16. Does anyone have a link to where I can fill this out

Hell who knows I might win
But seriously I need a link, please

[PowerToThePeople]

17. Calling Nate Silver.... Go get it... n/t

[jehop61]

18. He is just the insurer of a sports gimmick

Quicken Loan is having the promotion for basketball season. Buffet is being paid an insurance premium. Business is business.

[msanthrope]

19. I AM TOTALLY DOING THIS!!!! nt

[Iggo]

20. .