kos: Mitch McConnell's Kentucky seat in serious danger of going blue

[babylonsister]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/29/1273477/-Mitch-McConnell-s-Kentucky-seat-in-serious-danger-of-going-Blue?detail=facebook

Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:31 PM PST
Mitch McConnell's Kentucky seat in serious danger of going blue

by kos


Can this race be any closer? Not only are the two candidates neck-and-neck, but McConnell is still well under the magical 50 percent-safe mark, meaning his re-election chances are seriously threatened.

Now, I have a rule that almost always serves me well: Undecided voters trend the direction of their state's partisan lean. It's not always the case, such as in the North Dakota Senate race in 2012, but generally speaking, undecideds lean red when the state is red, and blue when the state is blue. So in this case, McConnell is still the presumptive favorite simply because Kentucky is solidly red at the federal level.



snip//

Even 40 percent of Republicans support increasing the minimum wage, demonstrating strong bipartisan support. But more than that ...

42% of Kentucky voters say they’re less likely to support Mitch McConnell for reelection this fall if he votes against increasing the minimum wage, compared to only 25% who say they’d be be more likely to back him.

What's more, among undecided voters—the ones I presume will vote their state's political lean—raising the minimum wage has 53-28 support, a 25-point margin, and the kind of margin that could tip the election to the Dems. In fact, those undecided voters are more likely to punish the candidate who opposes a raise in the minimum wage, by 20 points.

Republicans have decided to stick with their unpopular positions to the bitter end, a stance that might have limited effect given a GOP-friendly Senate map, heavily gerrymandered House, and typical GOP-heavy off-year turnout. But if Obamacare and the minimum wage help take out Mitch freakin' McConnell in Ken-freakin'-tucky this year, then 2016 will be a political bloodbath, with a far more Democratic-friendly map, presidential-year turnout, and more deeply ingrained Obamacare.

And as a bonus, we will have gotten rid of McConnell, which by itself would make 2014 a wonderful year indeed.

[theHandpuppet]

1. Here's how folks can help show him the exit door

http://alisonforkentucky.com/

[arcane1]

2. That would be a sweet and beautiful thing.

[DemocraticWing]

3. Damn right he is!

We're gonna send the Turtleman home and send a real Senator for Washington this time.

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. If we could stop eating our own, anything is possible. The circular firing squad...

on the left, is mystifying at times.

[babylonsister]

5. I sure hear that!

Puzzling to say the least.

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. Red state Democrats are too often left to fend for themselves because they don't....

meet some imagined self-imposed purity test from the "activist" class. It's the same cause & effect we see at the national level with the GOP. They've allowed their "activists" or teabaggers (as we like to call them) to have much more sway to the exclusion of moderates, and as a result they've placed themselves in quite a predicament when it comes to winning back the White House.

They may very well control the legislature after the midterms, but I don't see them being competitive in a presidential election. We can't allow ourselves to be limited to only winning in blue states, if we do, we'll never regain control of the House, and we may very well lose the Senate. Harry Reid has been the only thing standing between us & some of the most draconian legislation to come out of the house in decades. However, the "activists" must recognize that blue dog Democrats help give us control of the Senate, and keeps Harry Reid as majority leader.

[sheshe2]

7. Bring it home Alison!

[spanone]

8. k&r...for the possibility