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Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:23 AM

"Let them secede" European style?

The Russians are determined to keep their bases in the Crimea. As near as I can figure out, most of the people living in the Crimea are Russian. I don't know if that means a 55/45 split or more like 95/5.

The votes from the Crimea have made it very difficult for Ukraine to form a stable government. Again, it seems that most of the people in the Crimea want to stay close to Moscow.

I don't know the history - I think the current borders of Ukraine are based on a Soviet decision at least as much as any historical factor. The borders in that region have been very fluid for 1000 years.

So - here's my question: Would Ukraine be better off ceding the Crimea to Russia? It would make it easier for the rest of Ukraine to turn to the West.

Please excuse my ignorance on all this - I'm hoping for some info.

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:25 AM

1. you know more than I...Steve Kornacki's panel is discussing this situation now...

on msnbc...

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Response to CTyankee (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:28 AM

3. Steve Kornacki does a great job!!!! n/t

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:27 AM

2. The Crimea is historically Russian.


It was Kruschchev who fatefully handed the Crimea to the Ukraine 60 years ago - in February of 1954, in fact.

In the old USSR, it hardly mattered which republic "owned" it, seeing as they were all under the thumb of the Kremlin. The fact that the Crimea is part of the Ukraine today is simply an accident of history.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:28 AM

4. It's historically Tatar.

It became Russian only through policies of Russification.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #4)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:32 AM

6. Forced relocation and genocide, to boot.

Looks like the Tatars are mobilizing at this point. You can expect the Saudi's to start sending aid.

Thanks Putin!

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #4)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:33 AM

7. True. But my claim matches with the current ethnic makeup. It belongs with Russia.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #7)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:39 AM

12. So Ukraine should just acquiese to Russification? nt

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #12)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:43 AM

13. Well, the Hawaiians "acquiesced" to Americanization

Not to mention other indigenous peoples within the continental USA.

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Response to Tommy_Carcetti (Reply #4)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:38 AM

11. Yes, but power-wise, that fact hasn't mattered in centuries.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:38 AM

10. That's what I thought - to me it doesn't make sense for Ukraine to

bleed and possibly lose much more (including its independence) to hang on to territory that was never really part of Ukraine.

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:31 AM

5. This doesn't end good no matter what option you pick.

There's no "better off" here.

Pick your poison.

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:35 AM

8. I don't think that this is about the people

IMHO Russia would try to hold on to the Crimea even if the people there were all French.

Strategically, the Crimea is essential to Russia. They can not afford to lose it as it is the hinge of its force projection in the near and middle east, Mediterranean and Africa.

The Soviets "gave" Crimea to the Ukraine because it didn't matter as it was a deal between friends in the Warsaw pact.

Even after Ukrainian independence, Russian force projection in Crimea has always bested that of the Ukraine. The Ukrainian fleet has been dependent on Russia even after independence and that has only begun to change in the last decade. Russia has a grip on the Ukrainian navy and on most forces in the Ukraine even if those are nominally independent. What little force the Ukraine has in the Crimea that is truly loyal is no match for Russian capabilities.

In short, holding on to the Crimea is considered essential to Russian national security. As Americans, we have a good idea of what that means.

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:37 AM

9. Crimea at present - maybe more to follow in the south and east.

Regions whose main output is industrial goods may want to trade with Russia and not the EU which would not provide a substitute market for the goods they produce for a variety of reasons.

Closest EU analogies at present are Catalonia, Venice , Scotland and Spain's issues re. Gibraltar.

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Response to hedgehog (Original post)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 08:47 AM

14. You have admitted you know nothing

 

about the geopolitical situation, but you certainly can admit that you are an ignorant ass.

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Response to Jenoch (Reply #14)

Sun Mar 2, 2014, 11:12 AM

15. Thank you for your assistance.

But I believe you are incorrect. Generally, an ignorant ass is one who refuses to acknowledge the need for learning and/or refuses to learn. Since I requested more information in the OP, I fail to qualify.

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