Poland mobilises tanks to its border with Ukraine

[lovuian]

Russian troop invasion encircles Crimea’s capital as Ukraine PM declares the nation to be on ‘brink of disaster’

http://www.news.com.au/world/russian-troop-invasion-encircles-crimeas-capital-as-ukraine-pm-declares-the-nation-to-be-on-brink-of-disaster/story-fndir2ev-1226843109609

Six warships have since been observed leaving Ukrainian ports.

Meanwhile, Poland has admitted it has begun moving tanks and troops to take up position along its borders with Ukraine - but insists it is part of a ‘previously scheduled exercise’.

I think Poland should leave its troops there

[TwilightGardener]

1. Poland might get overrun with refugees. They don't want Russia at their door, either.

Who the fuck wants to be neighbors with Putin?

[aristocles]

2. Ever read Tuchman's "The Guns of August"?

A lot of military movement going on about the borders right now. Dangerous.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. I cannot find one confirmation of this

not a one, beyond the PM asking for art 4 meeting that is.

[lovuian]

4. the “world stands on the brink of conflict” over Ukraine

Ukraine crisis: 'World stands on brink of conflict,' warns Polish prime minister

Poland has warned the world "stands on the brink of conflict" as the Russian and Ukrainian stand off continues
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10670931/Ukraine-crisis-World-stands-on-brink-of-conflict-warns-Polish-prime-minister.html

“Ukrainians have to find out today that they have real friends,” Mr Tusk continued. “Europe must send a clear signal that it will not tolerate any acts of aggression or intervention.”

Russia's use of force in Ukraine has triggered mounting anxiety in Poland, which, given its bloody treatment at the hands of Moscow in the past, still views the Kremlin with deep and ingrained suspicion.

Bronislaw Komorowski, the Polish president, has called for the North Atlantic Council to convene in an emergency session saying "we [Poles] can feel threatened by the potential use of Russian armed forces on

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. That article got nowhere close to actual armor columns and a border

convening art 4 and actually moving armor are two different things.

[lovuian]

7. Poland has a interesting role in this and should be worried

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/time-to-sign-a-super-new-start/494752.html

Recently, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's arms control and disarmament directorate reiterated that Moscow might quit New START after Washington dispatched the warship "Donald Cook," capable of Aegis missile defense, to European shores.

from what I have read Aegis missile defense was to be placed in Poland in 2018

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Once again, do point out where the armor columns were

because that would be the kind of escalation that could lead to misunderstandings, that could lead to a 1914 redux. Why I spent a good while with several search strings on that matter alone, and all my hits, strange I know, led to 1914 and 1939, The 1914 was kind of cute since Poland (at least half) was Russian territory.

[Throd]

6. Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1939!

[lovuian]

8. NYT confirms Poland admission moving tanks and troops to the borders

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/russia-to-pay-not-so-simple.html?_r=0
Meanwhile, Poland has admitted it has begun moving tanks and troops to take up position along its borders with Ukraine - but insists it is part of a ‘previously scheduled exercise’.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. I cannot find that phrase, but perhaps I am daft

[Pretzel_Warrior]

21. ....

[Adrahil]

11. Poland is a member of NATO

That's a whole 'nuther ball game...

[etherealtruth]

13. It certainly is

... and we are all watching the Oscars

[FarCenter]

16. If Polish forces cross into Ukraine and fight with Ukrainain or Russian forces, NATO is not involved

It would not be an attack on Poland, which would require other members to come to their aid. They would have to get out of their own mess.

[Adrahil]

19. Well, there would a difference between Poland doing something on it's own...

... and NATO going in. I suspect neither will happen. But I do expect Poland will defends it's borders and if there are Russian incursion, they would have every right to insist on NATO support.

But I don't think Putin is that foolish. I think he'll probably take eastern Ukraine, though. We MIGHT be able to stop that with rapid sanctions. We'll see.

[FarCenter]

23. There is no obligation for NATO to "go in" unless a member state is attacked.

The 28 members are represented in the NATO council, which takes decisions on the basis of unanimity.

[Adrahil]

24. Yeah that's what I said.

Russian incursions in Poland would constitute an attack on a member nation.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. A simple google phrase reveals it is in the same article

you linked to first

http://www.news.com.au/world/russian-troop-invasion-encircles-crimeas-capital-as-ukraine-pm-declares-the-nation-to-be-on-brink-of-disaster/story-fndir2ev-1226843109609

[lovuian]

35. I'm looking for more confirmations

I'll still keep looking for more info and I appreciate you looking

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. It is such a serious escalation that this is why it seems somewhat unlikely

I know I will look again, and keep looking

[tammywammy]

44. Poland Defense Ministry: No Reason for Army to React to Ukraine Situation

Poland Defense Ministry: No Reason for Army to React to Ukraine Situation

Poland's defense ministry said Monday there is no reason for the Polish army to react to the situation in Ukraine, as local media reported troop movements within Poland because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The ministry denied the reports, saying troops were moving as part of routine training exercises.

"The number of training missions and the places where they are held have no relation to the current political and military situation in Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement. "In the current situation, there are no reasons to put Polish army units at a higher level of combat readiness."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20140303-706964.html

Local news reported on the movements. MoD is saying it's part of "routine training exercises".

[CatholicEdHead]

14. Quick estimate of conventional ground forces gives Russia the edge

Since the rundown of the Cold War Equipment and many of our land forces in Germany moved to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the NATO response force is small, there is a conventional hole in defenses if Pootie Poot wants a Blitzkrieg attack. This is not likely due to the nuclear deterrent on both sides. We were behind the USSR in the 1950s during Eisenhower's era and the truck mounted nuclear missiles were a deterrent then and now it is the remaining ICBMs we still have. It will be hard for Pootie Poot to get Warsaw Pact Part Deux.

Hard to believe that old style Cold War strategies are still in force today.

[FarCenter]

18. Considering that Ukrainian forces couldn't put down a demonstration in Kiev

It's hard to see how they would be able to stand up to the Russian Army.

I've heard that Ukrainian troops are garrisoned near their homes, i.e. troops in the western part are from the west, and troops in the eastern part are from the east. So they will likely back local sentiment, rather than commands from Kyiv.

[joshcryer]

30. Maybe, depends on how well the ethnic scare mongering works.

Or doesn't work.

[MisterP]

15. is it gonna be Lwów again?

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. I know the reference

But many here likely not.

[Jenoch]

29. Poland is not going to invade Ukraine

to gain territory.

[hrmjustin]

17. Oh this is not good at all.

[Skip Intro]

22. Yes, they should. Smart move. n/t

[Throd]

25. They might have a few grudges and unpleasant memories.

[idendoit]

26. Seems hard to tell Poland's motivation.

The president says "Poland is ready to help stabilize the situation". Is this a result of direct Russian intervention or the increasingly unstable situation in Kiev? Either way, Warsaw gets to do some sabre rattling.

[Bad Thoughts]

28. Poland's PM: "Ukrainians have to find out today that they have real friends"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10670931/Ukraine-crisis-World-stands-on-brink-of-conflict-warns-Polish-prime-minister.html

[idendoit]

31. That is a clear and forceful statement of support.

I was interested to see how the Czech president responded. From the same article:“Although I absolutely understand the interests of the majority Russian-speaking population of Crimea... we have our experience with military intervention from 1968,” said Milos Zeman.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. ah your one source FINALLY put that up

Poland mobilises tanks to its border with Ukraine

[lovuian]

34. Ukraine mobilizes after Putin's 'declaration of war'

The important thing now, they argue, is to make sure Russia understands which lines - such as those around NATO Baltic members - really cannot be crossed.

In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Ukrainian conflict could accelerate Warsaw's efforts to modernize the army and gain energy independence.


"The Russian military still doesn't really compare to ours," said former U.S. Navy officer Christopher Harmer, now senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC. "But they know where they want to use it and unlike us, they have the will to do so."

http://www.reuters.com/

[TheMightyFavog]

32. Can NATO or the EU get Poland to please back off?

This is not helping matters.

[Junkdrawer]

33. Tell them EXPLICITLY if they cross that border they leave NATO's article V protection behind...

Too much murky shit here...

[lovuian]

37. What does the word "stabilization" mean?

Komorowski: Poland ready to facilitate stabilization of situation in Crimea
Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski has stated Poland is ready to help stabilize the situation in Ukraine and particularly in Crimea.

He said this during a telephone conversation with the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, interim President Oleksandr Turchynov on Saturday, the press service of the Ukrainian parliament reported.

"We are ready in the future to facilitate the stabilization of the situation in Ukraine and particularly in Crimea," the Polish head of state said.
http://www.kyivpost.com/

[Junkdrawer]

38. Given how the US twisted the UN Iraq and Libyan resoluions...

I could see us extending NATO article V protection to a "stabilization force".

All this bullshit is going to make *someone's* trigger finger twitch.

[lovuian]

39. Get out of town! "stabilization force"

good find

[Junkdrawer]

40. This?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SFOR

[lovuian]

41. 150,000 Russian troops participating in war excercises on the border

BREAKING NEWS Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 5:00 local time (03:00 GMT) on Tuesday to surrender or face an all-out assault, according to Ukrainian defence ministry sources quoted by Interfax-Ukraine news agency. "If by 5am tomorrow morning they do not surrender a real assault will begin on units and sections of the Ukrainian armed forces all over Crimea," defence ministry officials are quoted as saying. So far there is no further confirmation of the ultimatum from other sources.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...,4752010.story

[lovuian]

42. the initial source still stands by comment for today

http://www.news.com.au/

Russian troop invasion encircles Crimea’s capital as Ukraine PM declares the nation to be on ‘brink of disaster’

Six warships have since been observed leaving Ukrainian ports.

Meanwhile, Poland has admitted it has begun moving tanks and troops to take up position along its borders with Ukraine - but insists it is part of a ‘previously scheduled exercise’.

[lovuian]

43. Polish PM urges decisive action over Russian military escalation

http://www.warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/index.php


The Polish PM said the Russia-Ukraine conflict may eventually increase risks for Poland which shares a border with Ukraine.

He said he did not currently see a direct threat to his country, but that "persistent instability or disintegration in Ukraine or a civil war would create a greater threat to Poland in the long run, because we would become a border state with a hot territory next door. "

Also Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski had said earlier that his country “could feel threatened by a potential Russian military intervention” in neighboring Ukraine and called for an emergency NATO meeting to respond to the crisis.