Fracking and "The Red Queen Effect": Decline in productivity means more drilling

[cali]

Our friends over at Fuel Fix have chipped in with another warning that the fracking bubble is about to burst, but that won’t necessarily mean relief is in sight for communities beset by the negative impacts of fracking. A rapid decline in productivity from shale formations is leading to a rapid increase in the number of new wells as companies attempt to make up for the dropoff in revenue. Fuel Fix calls this the Red Queen effect, after the frenetic character in Alice in Wonderland, and it could lead to tens of thousands of new wells in South Texas alone over the next few years.

The full Red Queen Effect article, by Jennifer Hiller, is well worth a read. It focuses on the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas, but its lessons can also be applied to the Marcellus Shale region in Appalachia and other shale formations throughout the U.S.

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The Center for Global Research provides a good rundown of both the environmental and financial issues, and here is the money quote:

Shale Gas, unlike conventional gas, depletes dramatically faster owing to its specific geological location. It diffuses and becomes impossible to extract without the drilling of costly new wells.

With that in mind, let’s take a quick look at Hiller’s article. She cites an overall 60 percent drop in Eagle Ford gas productivity within the past few years, as exemplified by the experience of the company Petrohawk. That’s actually pretty good compared to the industry average, which can get into the 70-80 percent range.

In 2009 a Petrohawk well in McMullen County had initial production of 1.39 million cubic feet (cf) monthly. It skyrocketed to 24 million cf within a year, but is currently down to 8.9 million cf.

Part of the dropoff can be deliberate, as companies “choke” a well to enable it to maintain productivity for a longer period of time. However, all things being equal, rapidly declining productivity in shale formations is inevitable.

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http://www.triplepundit.com/2013/11/red-queen-effect-warns-of-fracking-bubble/

[Champion Jack]

1. The ponzi scheme that is destroying our rural areas

[cali]

2. largely rural areas but there's plenty of fracking going on

in suburban areas and even within city limits.

I believe that fracking is far and away the gravest threat to our environment.

Is this really what President Obama wants to be remembered for, championing fracking?

[Laxman]

3. But The Nice Lady...

in the pants suit in the commercial that is on every 5 minutes told me that modern fracking technology is clean, safe and reliable! Clean water is over-rated anyway-I should be clearer, other people's clean water is over-rated. I have neighbor who was all for fracking until they put a well-pad in on the property next to his vacation home in the Poconos. Funny how something like that can change a person's mind.