5 Reasons Why Harry Reid Will Likely Keep His Job, Despite Washington Pundits' Predictions

[xchrom]

http://www.alternet.org/tea-party-and-right/5-reasons-why-harry-reid-will-likely-keep-his-job-despite-washington-pundits



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Trend 1: State Dynamics Matter, Not National Numbers

The reason Washington pundits are saying that 2014 could be big for Republicans starts with a baseline. Democrats have to defend 21 Senate seats in 2014, while Republicans only have to defend 14 seats. Thus, in midterm elections, when the president’s party is past its honeymoon with voters and tens of millions of presidential election year voters stay home, Democrats are disadvantaged, the conventional wisdom begins. Pundits point to statistics, such as the fact that Mitt Romney beat President Obama in 2012 in eight of the 21 states where Democratic senators face 2014 races, as signs of trouble . That’s one way that the endangered Democrats list arises, pointing to Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.

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Trend 2: Senate Democrats Have A Positive Record To Run On

Before we get into the reasons why the 2014 election will be fought more over local issues than national themes, step back and consider this basic political fact: Senate Democrats can point to constructive legislation they’ve passed—even if it was blocked by the House, whereas Republicans can mostly boast of trying to impede real progress. Senate Democrats have passed comprehensive immigration reform, updated employment discrimination laws and toughened the military’s sexual harrassment rules. Next week, the Senate will vote on an unemployment insurance extension, with Democrats providing the majority for passage.

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Trend 3: Attacking Obamacare Isn’t A Sure Bet

Despite the Koch's brothers wishes, the federal government isn't about to disappear. Moreover, the domestic agenda contains more than one item—overturning Obamacare. But there’s little indication that many campaigns are going to offer a broader message, even though Republican strategists not aligned with the Kochs are saying that bashing Obamacare isn't going to be enough to win.

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Trend 4: Don’t Forget The Pro-Obamacare Voters

On March 31, Obamacare enrollment will close until next fall. That’s why the President has been appearing on all kinds of broadcasts recently—such as "Ellen" last Thursday—to remind key uninsured constituencies, such as young people and women, to get a health plan. No one analyzing the 2014 Senate races has noted that Obamacare beneficiaries might become a voting block in battleground states in what historically are low-turnout federal elections.

[Demeter]

1. Is there another Democrat who wants it?

Because I'm not wild about Harry...

[Demeter]

2. Or maybe, you'd prefer Carmen, X

[xchrom]

3. i love her!