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Fri Mar 30, 2012, 11:40 AM

Climate change: world is reaching tipping point

http://www.iol.co.za/scitech/science/environment/climate-change-world-is-reaching-tipping-point-1.1264515

Climate change: world is reaching tipping point

March 27 2012 at 10:20am
By Nina Chestney

London - The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

“This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines,” said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

..more..

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Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply Climate change: world is reaching tipping point (Original post)
G_j Mar 2012 OP
FarCenter Mar 2012 #1
sudopod Mar 2012 #4
FarCenter Mar 2012 #5
sudopod Mar 2012 #6
truebrit71 Mar 2012 #2
Control-Z Mar 2012 #3

Response to G_j (Original post)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 11:59 AM

1. Which parameters do you propose to change, by how much, and by what means?

 

To develop strategies for reducing CO2 emissions, the Kaya identity can be used to decompose energy-related CO2 emissions into four factors:
1) population,
2) gross domestic product (GDP) per capita,
3) energy intensity (i.e., total primary energy supply (TPES) per GDP) and
4) carbon intensity (i.e., CO2 emissions per TPES). [1.1.4]

CO2 emissions = Population x (GDP/population) x (TPES/GDP) x (CO2/TPES)

The annual change in these four components is illustrated in Figure TS.1.2. [1.1.4]


From http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/IPCC_SRREN_TS.pdf page 34.

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Response to FarCenter (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 02:47 PM

4. Implying the OP has to do your research for you.

They've been working on this for decades. Google can probably help you out here.

It's not the OP's job to write a dissertation before he posts something you don't like.

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Response to sudopod (Reply #4)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 07:14 PM

5. Handwringing over CO2 without proposed solutions is useless

 

And the solutions are pretty constrained. It is unlikely that anything other than a dramatic drop in population would curb CO2 significantly. The only non-carbon energy source which could substitute for carbon fuels at current levels of energy consumption would be nuclear -- and that's not happening.

So the choice is to decrease GDP/person or to decrease population.

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Response to FarCenter (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 07:20 PM

6. LOL

1) It's not real.
2) It's real, but we didn't cause it.
3) TOO LATE LOL, nothing we can do, might as well carry on like we were.

Wiser heads than me saw this pattern coming for a long time. I just thought it would take longer to emerge.

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Response to G_j (Original post)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 12:17 PM

2. IMHO it has already passed the tipping point...

 

...all we can do now is try and figure out how best to manage in a radically different world...

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Response to G_j (Original post)

Fri Mar 30, 2012, 02:43 PM

3. When ANY website has bouncing,

dancing, flashing or exploding ads on their front page I have trouble taking them seriously. I certainly don't stay and read while unwanted infectious malware is being downloaded to my computer. Sorry.

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