Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders Likely To Flop Against Hillary In Iowa

[brooklynite]

The Daily Beast:

Progressives are already drooling over the possibility of Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont running for president as a Democrat. The Nation, a left-wing magazine, has touted that Sanders “could be the 2016 Democratic candidate we’ve all been waiting for” and the senator is speaking in Iowa on Saturday at a local Democratic Party dinner in Clinton—just one month after appearing in New Hampshire.

Yet while lefty groups are signing petitions urging the Independent senator (who caucuses with the Democrats) to register and throw his hat in the ring, the problem is that there is nothing bearing the slightest resemblance to a path to victory for Sanders in Iowa, a state where presumed front-runner Hillary Clinton is weakest and which has traditionally proved receptive to liberal candidates. One well-connected Iowa Democratic operative told The Daily Beast that Sanders’ ceiling would be 15 percent at best in a one-on-one matchup versus Clinton.

In this situation, he sees Sanders being able to pick up “some anti-Hillary support along with the lefties” but not being much of a factor. And, if anyone else entered the race, Sanders would be a Kucinich-type candidate, attaining viability in college towns and a handful of other bastions of upper-middle-class liberalism. In 2004, Kucinich barely cracked 1 percent of caucus delegates. As another connected Iowa operative noted, electability is important and “the vast majority of caucus goers will not see him as having a chance in a general election.”

Even progressive activists in the Hawkeye State weren’t exactly throwing flowers in Sanders’ wake. Matt Sinovic of the liberal group Progressive Iowa said while he thinks Sanders “tells a compelling story and there’s definitely an appetite for progressive ideas. I don’t know if he’d be able to mount the type of campaign that it would take to take on Hillary Clinton.” Sinovic went on to strike a very friendly note toward the former Secretary of State, saying, “We’re interested in talking with any progressive who wants to come out here and have a discussion about progressive ideas and at some point that’ll be Hillary Clinton.”

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Bernie would cause significant damage to Hillary

He'd spotlight her record on Congress.

[MineralMan]

4. Perhaps, but perhaps not.

When it actually becomes time for candidates announce, after the November, 2014 mid-term elections, we'll get a clearer picture of who is running and who is not. Then...over time, we'll see how the various candidates are doing.

I think it's far too early to make any predictions at all. There's an election to prepare for.

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[Scuba]

2. Hillary can't be stopped. We should all cede to her now.

At least that's what Jamie told the press to report.

[marmar]

8. That's clearly the meme that's being pushed.

[stevenleser]

3. I think that is how it would play out. I still think Bernie would be a good addition to the race

because it would be great to get national exposure for the things he says, but he has no chance.

[MannyGoldstein]

6. However, as Hunter Thompson wrote...

"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."

[Robbins]

5. So

we just cornate her and those who don't want to pull party even further to right should just shut up.

I remember when some said obama had no chance.

Having opporents In primary Is the clintons worst nightmare.

If people think Obama Is too centrist he's nothing compared to her.

If Elizabeth Warren could be convinced to run she could poential be the 2016 version of Obama In sense of being one who shatters
the Clinton's Inevitabilty.

[Bluenorthwest]

7. When people lead with a claim they can predict the future in politics, you know they are short

on winning talking points. A recent example was the entire GOP prior to 2012 election citing all the polls showing Mitt victory assured. They had nothing, so they pulled out the tea leaves, clutched the pulpit and began to wax prophetic....of course they were wrong but they presented it with unflinching conviction and absolute certainty.
I see the center picks up tricks from their rightward allies and cohort!