Florida DU'ers, be advised, we may have a tropical storm soon off to the east...

[steve2470]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression. This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast. A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance. If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/301738_MIATWOAT.shtml

[littlemissmartypants]

1. Heads up for NC also. nt

[aikoaiko]

4. yep

[HooptieWagon]

2. It would be a welcome relief.

Its been hotter than blazes. Some cloud cover and rain would be quite a relief. Tropical storm winds no big deal.

[malaise]

3. I'm watching another tropical wave moving through the

Leewards right now

[el_bryanto]

5. Thanks for the heads up. nt

[malaise]

6. Here's Jeff Masters take

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2710
<snip>
91L Near Tropical Depression Status; Entire SE U.S. Coast Could be Impacted
Forecast for 91L
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track of 91L. The disturbance should continue a slow southward to southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida by Tuesday. The system is expected to meander near the coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a trough of low pressure to the north begins pulling the system to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Monday through Wednesday. Heavier rains of 4 - 8" are likely, since I expect 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will spread to coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Thursday and Friday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model shows the atmosphere surrounding 91L will get even drier this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, will slow development of 91L. If 91L makes landfall over Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, interaction with land will also interfere with development. However, the storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when the center is offshore, and we should not dismiss the possibility that 91L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength late this week, as some of the members of the 00Z Monday morning European model ensemble were suggesting. It is more likely, though, that 91L will struggle with land interaction, dry air and wind shear, and be at worst a medium-strength tropical storm named Arthur with 50 - 55 mph winds as it brushes the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned.

[Uncle Joe]

7. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, steve.

[Lochloosa]

8. Thanks, but this looks like just a Coastal Event as we say in Florida. Makes for some good surfing.

[malaise]

9. Remember the warnings about what not to do during a weather event

[Lochloosa]

11. Don't worry...I know better than to get in the water. But I'm a little older than the kids

at Jacksonville Beach.

[malaise]

12. If Masters et al are correct Florida

will not experience tropical storm conditions or as much rain as the Carolinas .

[DrDan]

10. had some tropical-type winds today in the Daytona Beach area - not strong but feeling like it is

beginning to kick up

[Baitball Blogger]

13. No wonder my dogwood is looking so bad.

Too much rainwater over the last month, and more to come.

[steve2470]

14. 430 PM EDT advisory

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302028
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.

Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/302028_MIATWOAT.shtml

[steve2470]

15. 8 pm EDT advisory

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite and radar images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the low pressure area located about 90 miles east of
Vero Beach, Florida, have changed little in organization during the
last few hours. Environmental conditions continue to be favorable
for development, and only a slight increase in the organization and
persistence of the thunderstorm activity would result in the
formation of a tropical depression. The low is moving
southwestward at about 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/302338_MIATWOAT.shtml

[Cha]

16. Kick!