General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTropical Storm Arthur moving north at 7 mph and is 220 miles SSE of Charleston SC
Last edited Wed Jul 2, 2014, 05:20 PM - Edit history (8)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/011103_MIATWOAT.shtml
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011103
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression One, located just east of the central Florida Atlantic
coast.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression One are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression One are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
I know the map and NHC are at odds, but I'll take the NHC take. eta02: Apparently when NHC says no tropical cyclone formation, that apparently means no NEW storms.
eta: Changing headline to reflect latest information
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
B2G
(9,766 posts)That makes no sense.
Every report I've seen has it intensifying into a Cat 1 storm by the end of the week.
steve2470
(37,457 posts)Now this is really confusing. Here's Jeff Masters:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2711
He said that at 7:36 AM GMT.
hack89
(39,171 posts)steve2470
(37,457 posts)11:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 1
Location: 27.6°N 79.3°W
Moving: NW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
..DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 011745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011745.shtml
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 012103
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
CORRECTED DAY OF EXPECTED STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE IN THE
DISCUSSION SECTION
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE SETTLEMENT POINT
OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH...81 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/012103.shtml
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 012348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...CENTER OF ARTHUR MEANDERING EAST OF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR HAS
MOVED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE
AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION
AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST TO 61 MPH... 98 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE THIS EVENING.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/012348.shtml
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 020252
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014
...ARTHUR DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. ARTHUR IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE ARTHUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON THE WESTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Uncle Joe
(58,270 posts)Thanks for the thread, steve.
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 020855
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTHEAST OF ARTHUR...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45
MPH...72 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 996 MB...29.42 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
LATE THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND
JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 021455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 021742
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
200 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
COAST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
ARTHUR.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
steve2470
(37,457 posts)000
WTNT31 KNHC 022054
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014
...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARTHUR IS EXPECETD TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
