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Stuart G

(38,672 posts)
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 06:55 AM Oct 2014

Why I Think Gas Prices in USA Will Remain Low for a Couple of Years...

one word...only one word...


I recall in 2008 around election time, gas prices went down significantly. In Missouri and in other parts of the country a gallon of gas was somewhere around $1.75 cents a gallon. (or less) After the election..the prices gradually rose. why?..I believe that refiners and suppliers lowered the price to try to convince the country that everything was ok, things were fine, no we didn't have to change things to a Democratic president..It was a concerted effort to help McCain win. Refiners and suppliers..etc, did not want to worry about additional regulations on oil, its production, and sale. period. (after the election the price gradually rose where it remained high for a few years....remember?)

About a year ago, the oil companies and the car companies got together to deal with the threat of ..TESLA. No, I do not have the direct link, but I recall the meeting. The threat of TESLA is real and significant to these huge multinational corporations. If people get used to paying $1.50 for a gallon around the USA, the thinking goes..they will not buy an electric car of any kind..

One of the Saudi oil barons admitted a few years ago, that the refined price of gas at the pump has little to do with the world market price.. If that is true, then fixing the price at the pump for a long time would fool U.S. buyers into thinking that a buck and a half is a good price so what the hell is this electric car thing about?..Would they do that to get rid of TESLA?..what do you think? Could they do that if they wanted to? After destroying demand for the electric car in the USA, the price can go back to 4 or 5 dollars a gallon or whatever they want, to make up for a temporary loss.

Sure, we read about an "oversupply" and incredible "production of home grown oil" or whatever. But, I believe that this means nothing to these huge corporations. ..Get this..$1.50 a gallon in todays world, really is 38 cents a gallon in the 1960s world. taken a 400 percent increase of prices of stuff since the 60s. What did a car cost in the mid 60s?..or a house?..So, a buck fifty would be really cheap for gas..given reasonable inflation...people could get used to cheap gas real quick..and forget the expensive stuff..
Could they do it to kill the TESLA in the USA? .TESLA is a new company that does not really need the oil giants or the other car companies..does it? Right now, in California, there are about 3000 employees making these things. They are producing these cars in a plant that used to make Toyotas and Chevy compact cars. That plant was designed to make cars. This company is making them today as you read these words. Do you think that big oil and the other car companies would combine their resources to try to stop this company and others that make these things that are real threats to them? I think they would...(and this does not take into account that Tesla is currently building a new battery factory to greatly increase the distance needed for a charge and improve the technology, oh and that factory is right here in the USA, in Nevada..)

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(13,039 posts)
1. Gas Prices Are Low Because Global Demand Is Lower And Global Supply Is Greater
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 07:11 AM
Oct 2014

Tesla is a small player in the global automobile market.

In twenty years - 2034 - things may be much different.


(33,196 posts)
3. pump prices have less to do with supply and demand
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 07:35 AM
Oct 2014

than "what the market will bear".
speculation is the driving force in todays system.

Stuart G

(38,672 posts)
4. I agree with you that Tesla is a "small player" but, I need to add this.
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 07:38 AM
Oct 2014

General Motors killed the electric car in the 1990s. It was no mistake. If that technology had progressed at a natural pace, there would be no Tesla. But it didn't. A small player can become a big player quickly if there is strong demand for it (whatever it is)..Three examples, ..."Wall Mart" and "Microsoft" and Apple..We can argue that these companies fixed the deck, or have a better product or whatever. In the 80s..the three of these were unknown or little known. (Wall Mart was a small player compared to Sears, Pennys ..etc)
Please don't underestimate the small player. I doubt that the oil companies and others in this business do)


(60,364 posts)
5. ..
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 07:40 AM
Oct 2014

Military events which could seriously interfere with driving in less than three years

There are looming but plausible threats to widely affordable American driving that are widely understood to exist but are nearly impossible to accurately predict in their severity and timing. Two major “black swan” events are first, an interruption in steady oil exports from the Middle East, and second, a swiftly developing global economic crisis which could affect the U.S. and global economies.

Our current effort to militarily contain the Sunni-based Islamic State in Iraq and deescalate regional conflict is plagued with uncertainties, if not impossibilities. Nobody can easily anticipate how military turmoil in the Sunni regions to the north might affect oil production from the Shiite dominated oil-producing regions of Iraq to the south, which are currently producing and exporting about 3 million barrels of oil a day.

Trying to use U.S. military power to keep the Middle East reliably producing its oil for export has become a daunting military juggling act.

There is much to go wrong in a conflict that could spill over into nearby Saudi Arabia, which is itself increasingly unstable. Trying to use U.S. military power to keep the Middle East reliably producing its oil for export has become a daunting military juggling act. The new Prime minister of Iraq tells us that all foreign troops will be unwelcome at the same time our generals tell us that the conflict cannot be won from the air.

Stuart G

(38,672 posts)
7. I do not know anyone who owns one
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 08:11 AM
Oct 2014

Yes, I know that there is ample supply of oil and gas. I do not know if this matters in this case.


(14,040 posts)
15. I drove behind one the other week
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 10:41 AM
Oct 2014

I saw it and was like, what's this new car on the road (I'm fairly knowledgeable about cars)? So, I tailgated the guy and saw it was a Tesla. I immediately changed lanes and got as far away as possible. I didn't want to be responsible for damaging such an expensive car.



(96,641 posts)
8. This is like saying Windows PC prices are low to force Apple out of business...
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 08:17 AM
Oct 2014

...this is supple and demand of a basic commodity. Apple products, like the Tesla car, is a niche market product that won't be influenced significantly by the cost of mass market competition.



(17,301 posts)
12. Supply and demand left the market years ago
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 09:04 AM
Oct 2014

When the middle east kings of oil producing nations got together to set the price of oil, it became a price fixing monopoly. Today only five oil corporations control most of the oil. They routinely play games to fix the price. I think the rich old men who own the corporations are too greedy to let the price drop into the low price range. If it goes below 2.5, I would be surprised.


(45,851 posts)
10. The global economy is slowing, demand is down
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 08:31 AM
Oct 2014

If you look at the Baltic Dry Index for the last year the consistent trend is downward.

The BDI is a measure of shipping activity, shipping being a strong indicator of the health of the physical economy.


Spider Jerusalem

(21,786 posts)
13. I think that's ridiculous
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 09:13 AM
Oct 2014

sorry, but the oil market is international. The largest drivers of demand growth in oil are China and India, not the US. If demand in those countries continues to grow as it has, world market prices for oil will go up, and US fuel prices will go up with them.

Tesla and other electric and hybrid vehicles represent a tiny fraction of the US vehicle market, let alone the global vehicle market; any expectation that widespread adoption of electrics and hybrids is happening soon is over-optimistic based on the currently available evidence.



(85,373 posts)
14. The Price of Oil is negotiated by politicians
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 09:39 AM
Oct 2014

Some oil is dirt cheap to pump and refine--think Saudi Arabia

Some is horribly expensive--think shale fracking

Some sources are considered allies and friends of current US political regime: Saudi Arabia, Canada, the UK perhaps, and maybe Nigeria and Norway, this week: approx 34%

Some sources are considered enemies: Venezuela, Iran, Iraq if not held by Shia, Libya, Russia: 30% of world production

Top oil producers: According to IEA top 10 oil producer countries produced over 64 % of the world oil production in 2012. The top oil producers in 2012 were:

Russia 544 Mt (13 %),
Saudi Arabia 520 Mt (13 %),
United States 387 Mt (9 %),
China 206 Mt (5%),
Iran 186 Mt (4 %),
Canada 182 Mt (4 %),
United Arab Emirates 163 Mt (4 %),
Venezuela 162 Mt (4 %),
Kuwait 152 Mt (4 %) and
Iraq 148 Mt (4 %).

In 2012 total oil production was 4,142 Mt. [4] In 2011 the world oil production was 4,011 Mt demonstrating an annually rising trend in oil production...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production


Currently, having lost the wars on Libya, Iran, Venezuela and Russia militarily, the US fascist-leaning regime is trying to choke the economic life out of them by forcing the global collapse of the modern economy and therefore the price of oil, depriving its enemies of income.

This will not work for several reasons, but I will just name two: China and India.

The US hegemony is cracking up. This oil bidness scam will completely destroy it. And the US PEOPLE, as in by the People, of the People, for the People, will have a window of opportunity for peace abroad and democracy at home, brought to you by those greedy, over-reaching bastards at PNAC.

Peace my friend...the Summer of Love may return in our lifetime!

And yes, Tesla (and Volt) may be the wild cards that make a "Royal Flush", and I'm not talking poker.

Corruption Inc

(1,568 posts)
17. Good idea. If it's not Tesla directly, it'll be the impact of overall energy conservation
Mon Oct 13, 2014, 10:19 PM
Oct 2014

Almost everyone who thinks about buying a car now considers the possibility of outrageous gas prices in the near future which leads to more energy conscious purchases, which will lead to less demand for gas in the U.S..

Who knows what countries like China will do as the 200 million slave laborers there want to move up the socioeconomic ladder. That could lead to massive increases in crude prices worldwide which would negate all efforts in the U.S. to lower prices.

Great topic that affects us all. It'll be interesting to see if anyone has any other ideas.

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