GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory

[FourScore]

Thu Nov 20, 2014 at 11:00 AM PST
GOP Columnist: The VERY Bad News FOR THE GOP in the GOP's Midterm Victory
by murphthesurf

A GOP strategist, columnist at the Houston Chronicle who goes by the handle GOPLifer, Chris Ladd, has declared that the week of the Midterm Elections “was a dark week for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America remain the world’s most vibrant, most powerful nation.” What the HELL! Where was he?

In a careful analysis, Ladd builds a case: The Midterms of 2014 demonstrate the continuation of a 20 year old trend. Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level where the population is the largest utilizing a declining electoral base of waging, white, and rural voters. As a result no GOP candidate on the horizon has a chance at the White House in 2016 and the chance of holding the Senate beyond 2016 is vanishingly small.

The author points to the Blue Wall.

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The Blue Wall is a block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. On Election Day that block added New Hampshire to its number and Virginia is shifting At the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. If Virginia joins New Hampshire that number will be 270 out of 270.

To win a GOP candidate has to win all nine “tossup” state and one solidly Blue state.
Thus, in the next, and into the foreseeable future, Presidential elections will be decided in the Democratic Primary. What are the chances that a Republican candidate capable of appealing to the increasingly right wing GOP will appeal to enough Democrats to win in tossup and Blue states?

But what about that RED Map….well it accounts for 149 electoral votes. The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. What was Red before in electoral politics is still Red (and maybe less Red considering NH and VA).

Republican support grew deeper in 2014, not broader.

Some other observations
a) Republican Senate candidates lost every single race in the Blue Wall.

b) There were some GOP victories in Governor’s races, but in each case there were no coat tails. None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition to the ACA. Look at Rauner who took out Quinn in Illinois, but Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly having not lost a single seat.

c) Voter turnout was awful. It was more awful for the Democrats but the GOP won 52 percent of 35 percent of the vote: in other words their mandate is 17 percent of the registered electorate (and 13 percent of those eligible to vote).

d) Good news for the Democrats: They have consolidated their power behind the sections of the country that generate the overwhelming bulk of America’s wealth outside the energy industry.

e) Voter suppression is working remarkably well, but that won’t last. They key is voter ID. Eventually Democrats will top whining and will help people get the documentation they need to meet confusing new requirements and obstructions. The whole “voter integrity” sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost in low-turnout races, but the message to minority (but growing) groups is clear. We GOP don’t give a damn about you.

f) Every major Democratic ballot initiative was successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red states. AND every personhood amendment failed.

g) Half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the former Confederacy. There are no more white Democrats from the South. All of the Dixiecrats are now GOP.

h) Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate because they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In 2016 Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats with at least 18 of them very competitive based on geography and demographics. Democrats will be one seat looks competitive.

i) McConnell’s conciliatory statements were encouraging, but he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen to cooperate on anything constructive.

j) This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new wealth and staggering challenges. Ladd say that the GOP could address a this with heads-up, intelligent adaptations to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional leadership on commercial issues, he claims, should be at the leading edge of planning to capitalize on this emerging environment.

k) Instead, he predicts, what the GOP will spend its time on is: Climate denial, theocracy, thinly veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings.

He closes his essay saying: “It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the next wave of our economic and political transformation. The opportunities we inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by one while we chase so-called “issues” so stupid, so blindingly disconnected from our emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our performance in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation that fought desegregation. Something, some force, some gathering of sane, rational, authentically concerned human beings generally at peace with reality must emerge in the next four to six years from the right, or our opportunity will be lost for a long generation. Needless to say, Greg Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that force. ‘Winning’ this election did not help that force emerge.”

GOPLifer and What the GOP is Missing from the 2014 Midterm Victory

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/20/1346224/-GOP-Columnist-The-VERY-Bad-News-FOR-THE-GOP-in-the-GOP-s-Midterm-Victory

[Cha]

1. "GOPLifer" sounds like a death sentence to me.. metaphorically speaking, of course..

Gracias FourScore!

[roguevalley]

9. two years of overreach, insanity and stupidity. Hang on. We will be back. Get rid of that

wimp at the DNC and kick ass. They will blow it. You know it. defending 24 seats when they will have had two years of rampant ass hatery. It won't happen.

[True Blue Door]

2. Unfortunately, we tend to be complacent with advantages rather than exploiting them.

We want politics to be a magical force of inevitable progress, not a result of hard labor that tastes bitter from all the suffering it took.

[Ed Suspicious]

3. We lack a cohesive vision for what makes a democrat. The pukes have that.

[True Blue Door]

4. Republicans are fascists, in the most basic sense: Power is all.

It's a very easy identity and ideological premise to remember. "Do thy will, for that is the whole of the law." Basically do whatever you want, make up excuses for it after the fact, and blame someone else for the negative consequences. That's it - that's all they are.

Democrats are more philosophical people, so we actually need ideas and morals. The best I've come up with is "LEO": Liberty, Equality, Opportunity - an interconnected trinity of equally important fundamental values that must all be served without undermining the others to improve human life.

[Ed Suspicious]

8. The trinity works for me. Two cats herded. Nice job.

[ZombieHorde]

10. I'm not sure who you are quoting,

but if you're summarizing the Aleister Crowley quote, then "do whatever you want, make up excuses for it after the fact, and blame someone else for the negative consequences" isn't even close to what that means.

[True Blue Door]

11. Whatever the guy meant who said it, on its face it's a perfect summation of fascism.

[nxylas]

17. Not really, more a description of Libertarianism

Fascism is all about submerging your own identity into that of the tribe, under the guidance of an infallible leader; such as Hitler, Mussolini or Limbaugh. Fascists tend to fetishize self-discipline, the very opposite of "do what thou wilt".

[True Blue Door]

18. They fetishize an unlimited power struggle yielding the one indefatigable Will to Power.

That most fascists are cowards content to sit back and obey whoever emerges supreme doesn't change that this is what they value.

Hypocrisy and doublethink are no sin to a fascist, so a man who rises to power by overthrowing the established order then turning around and brainwashing his people to obey and not follow his example doesn't cause any confusion. The new Emperor/Fuhrer/Generalissimo followed his desire to rule and triumphed, and those who tried to stop him failed, so his rule is legitimate. The logic of fascists is perfect madness.

The only sin they believe in is betrayal of Power itself, not of those who hold it. George Washington refusing the offer to be made King - in the mind of a fascist that makes Washington akin to Judas Iscariot.

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. No we have Left Leaning Independents who Bash Democrats along with the pukes....

and THAT is why we don't have unity....and that makes us look like losers.....so we lose the Mushy Middle voter.

[Ed Suspicious]

34. Nice try. Republican Lite is the Crystal Pepsi

of political parties.

[Art_from_Ark]

5. And yet, a lot of those "blue" states elected Republican governors this time

Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Maine, and New Jersey re-elected its Republican governor last year. The GOP was supposed to have had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel in 2008, and yet they now control most governorships and both houses of Congress, as well as the US Supreme Court.

[MillennialDem]

12. Those governors are a natural consequence of the blue wall

The GOP is a mortally wounded beast and soon to die - but said beasts are often very dangerous in their pre-death thrashings about.

The GOP is doomed when it comes to presidential cycles - but they can keep winning midterms until they piss the electorate off so much they decide to show up in force in 2018 or 2022.

Unfortunately for us, local representation is often far more important in one's daily life than who the president is.

[Skeowes28]

32. Gop

Half the nation is gop Nd dems are fauckem lazy during mid terms they'll still be in power

[magical thyme]

22. there was a *lot* of outsider spending in Maine

and the OP (quote) is wrong in stating that no GOP senator was elected in a blue state, since Collins won re-election in a landslide.

[jwirr]

33. The Koch's put a lot of their efforts behind getting these governors because it is states that can

and do limit voting. We have seen just how damaging a Governor can be in such states as Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin.

[Art_from_Ark]

40. Money literally buys elections, it seems

The Republican Party is corrupt to the core.

[davidn3600]

6. Great! Another post about how the Republicans are dying

You go on and keep believing that and 2014 will keep happening.

[MillennialDem]

13. They are dying in presidential years. The problem is this motivates them to turn out in droves in

off year elections. If you listen to them 2014 was about "we'll get him this time" - ie beating Obama. As if they can still somehow kick his lame duck butt out of office. They're so small and delusional they think 2014 was of any major consequence on the national level (it was huge on the local level though, us poor saps in blue and purple states with Governors like Walker are getting the shaft).

[davidn3600]

16. And we've yet to prove we can win anything without Obama on the ballot

[Kablooie]

7. Until the Democrats have something concrete to offer other than "we aren't Republicans" ...

they may remain inconsequential even while the GOP base is declining.

Heck, in this last election a lot of Democrats seemed to think that pretending to be a Republican was the way to win.

If Democrats don't present a strong platform that they can get behind and enthusiastically push as a group, the Republicans will continue to keep hold of our Government even though nobody likes what they offer.

[MillennialDem]

14. We need stuff to offer at the local level and get people to turn out during off year elections and

for local elections.

Believe me if I had the solution for it...

[tblue37]

19. Democrats also need to start developing and grooming candidates for local, county, and

state office. That is the pipeline. City and county commissions, local and state school boards, the mayor's office--these are not worthless positions! They have a big impact on people's lives, and they develop brand recognition for the politicians. A lot of voters will actually vote for a candidate without having a clue about his or her positions, as long they recognize that person's name but not the name of the candidate running against him or her.

The Republicans groom their people at the local, county, and state level, help them learn the ropes, get them recognition, and then move them up to run at the national level.

The Democratic Party, though, from the leadership on down, pretty much ignores everything except the presidency. Even governorships and US House and Senate races are largely ignored, so that almost the only way we ever win some of those is if we have a presidential candidate with long coattails.

The Democratic over-focus on the presidency is also manifested in the way every promising Democratic politician who gets into a state legislature, into a governorship, or into either house of the US Congress is immediately hailed as our next best presidential hope, as though no other office has any value or significance at all.

Howard Dean's 50-state strategy at least recognized that we need to fight in every state, but even his approach was focused entirely on national elections.

[red dog 1]

35. + 1

[hifiguy]

38. They have othing else to offer

because they are as beholden to the corporate dollars as the Repigs are, though they don't ever admit it when anyone is listening. And they will never bite the hand that feeds them by opposing the corporatists' policy preferences or pitching economic populism. The institutional Democratic party is now to the right of the pre-Reagan 1970s Republican party. The corporatists bought it and put it there. And they are not going to let it go.

[world wide wally]

15. We also can't keep our ideas, policies, and accomplishments secrets as so many of the Dem candidates did this year

I hardly heard a word from Dem candidates about any of these things other then the Republicans will take away a woman's choice if they get elected. That is important, but women's reproductive rights are only a part of what people are looking for. I hope they actually talk about something next time around.

[Gothmog]

20. This is a well done article

[Scuba]

21. Not to worry. The Republicans have a sure-fire plan to win in 2016: Running as Democrats.

[Trekologer]

23. On that map, Democrats would need only 1 of 5 states or 2 or 5 to win

1 of OH, VA, NC, GA, FL

OR

2 of AZ, CO, IA, MO, WV

And knowing the current crop of Democrats, they won't. Just look at this part senate races. The Democrats needed to win just one of 5 or so toss-ups. What happened? The GOP won all of them. The demographics suggested that the Democrat should have been able to win at least one of those races. But the candidates and party as a whole didn't really give the voters something to come out for (except for "not the R candidate&quot and so the voters did not.

[Fred Sanders]

24. The Electoral College may now be rigged because Republicans can do the math also...it will be war.

[Bluenorthwest]

26. What State do you live in? Tell us the specifics as to what they are doing there.

That sort of bullshit is no possible here, so tell us about your local situation and perhaps some help from more Democratic areas can be arranged. Without specifics, negativity is just negativity.

[Fred Sanders]

30. Warning is not negativity, at least not in my dictionary.

[Orsino]

25. They will be splitting the electoral votes of the states they can't win.

And suppressing the vote futher.

And neutralizing laws they don't like with their very own Supreme Court.

There's only so much gerrymandering they can do, but gerrymandering is no longer their goal. Nullification of the aristocracy's least favorite laws is. The may not be good at winning elevtions anymore, but they have the power to make elections meaningless.

[ellie]

28. Well that was encouraging

[William769]

29. Kick & recommended.

[Proud Public Servant]

31. The problem is that Blue states are weaker than Red

Consider:

- The GOP holds the governorship in 11 states that Obama carried in 2012; we hold the governorship in only 5 states Romney carried.
- The GOP has complete or partial control of state houses in 11 states that Obama carried in 2012; we have such control in only 2 states Romney carried.
- The GOP holds 10 Senate seats in states that Obama carried in 2012; we hold 4 seats in states Romney carried.

It is true that, in recent years, more states have turned Red-->Purple/Blue than have gone Blue-->Purple/Red. But the GOP still has more purchase in our states than we have in theirs.

[red dog 1]

36. I'd like to believe that what Chris Ladd wrote is true, but I'm not sure it is

For example, his statement:
"The 'Blue Wall' is a block of states that no Republican presidential candidate can realistically hope to win."

But included in the "Blue Wall" are states that are not really "blue", IMO
Maine, a blue state?
Wisconsin used to be a "blue" state, but is it still blue? (GOP hold all statewide offices, I think)
New Mexico, a blue state?
Nevada, still a blue state?

The next two years are going to be interesting, that's for sure

[Le Taz Hot]

37. Really good read.

Thanks for posting.

[pnwmom]

39. Except they have a simple plan.

Use their control of state governments to change the way they assign electoral votes. Suddenly states that give all their votes to a Dem might be splitting them with a Rethug.