General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnyone see Charlie Cooks article saying only a 25% Chance Hillary will run
I can't find the link but Steve Kornacki had a segment on it
hlthe2b
(102,203 posts)While I acknowledge Hillary has a lot of Democratic detractors, I think if she does not run and the race is thrown wide open.... that we will have one hell of a hard time retaining the WH--even though the REPUG'S policies toward women, minorities, immigrants, and workers have done everything possible to ensure they will lose the WH into the next several cycles
cali
(114,904 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,295 posts)and significantly higher than 50% that she'll be the Democratic nominee:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate
Only a 25% chance that she'll run sounds ridiculous, to me.
cali
(114,904 posts)I do think she'll win the nomination. For a multitude of reasons, I think she'll lose the GE- though that depends on who she faces. I'm going with the assumption that she'll face Jeb or another establishment republican. Some of the reasons I think she'll lose:
I see as being in a very reactionary time and I don't think that will change by the 2016 election.
I suspect her support is a lot less robust and enthusiastic than most people assume.
She simply isn't a very engaging campaigner. That comment that President Obama made about her being likable enough, echoes.
She has a very difficult needle to thread regarding motivating minority voters and not losing white voters.
elfin
(6,262 posts)For all those reasons plus I think the hate machine will be more prepared for her than they were for Obama in 2008.