Here’s how Democrats win back the Senate in 2016. And it’s surprisingly simple.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

The Senate map is Democrats' friend in the 2016 cycle. They are defending only 10 seats while Republicans have two dozen of their own seats to hold. But wait, it gets better. Seven of those 24 Republican seats are in states that President Obama won not once but twice: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

To win the majority back, Democrats need to win five of those seven seats in November 2016. (If Hillary Clinton, or some other Democrat, wins the White House in 2016, then Senate Democrats need to win only four of those seven.

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[dawg]

1. The math is heavily in our favor.

People read way too much into the 2014 election results. The map was tilted against us then. And the results were typical for the sixth year of a Presidential term - certainly no worse than normal; especially considering the reduced voter turnout Democrats typically experience in mid-term elections.

The key to the next decade, however, is control of the state houses for the 2020 reapportionment.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

2. "The key to the next decade, however, is control of the state houses for the 2020 reapportionment."

There are three million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania and we can't win an election against a tea bagger!

[Scuba]

3. Wisconsin is now reliably "red" as Republicans own all the vote-counting equipment and processes.

[HereSince1628]

4. Unfortunately tea-party radicalism has grown stronger here

and it's got heaping animosity toward candidates coming out of Milwaukee and Madison

Feingold represents a huge lever in that race, he likely wouldn't align very well with the DSCC and that would create some issues in channeling national fund raising to a possible Feingold campaign.

Considering democrats the pro-corporate position isn't really an advantage in WI.

The combination of regional prejudices and progressive resistance puts possibles like Abele, Moore, Larson etc in a handicapped position.

There may be a better argument for a New Dem like Ron Kind (who was a co-chair for them) who has done well enough in western WI. But we've also seen recently that the economic conservative dems, of the Ron Kind sort that advocate free trade with China, don't have turnout changing appeal among WI democrats.

That of course must be set against other things influencing the election of a senator in WI...

The presidential race itself is obviously going to effect voter turnout, and Kind certainly aligns with HRC and the DSCC. That undoubtedly creates some hopefulness for some synergism inside the Kind camp should Clinton be the dem candidate. Certainly that hasn't gone unnoticed among the 3rd Way/who still hold a lot of sway in how national funds are coordinated to flow into senate elections.

[Scuba]

5. If Ron Kind is the best we can do we should just start a new party.

[HereSince1628]

6. It's probably past time to start pondering a list of invitees