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antigop

(12,778 posts)
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 01:31 PM Jan 2015

wow...now even Krugman is "suspicious" about the TPP

Why?

Because "trade" is the #1 priority of the US Chamber of Commerce.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/suspicious-nonsense-on-trade-agreements/

Tom Donohue, head of the US Chamber of Commerce, warns against economic populism, which he says is really a push to create a “state-run economy.” Yep — so much as mention rising inequality, and you’re Joseph Stalin (unless you’re Mitt Romney.) But what really gets me is the Chamber’s supposed agenda for growth. Topping the list — the number one priority — is completing those trade agreements.

This is absurd, and disturbing.

Think about it. The immediate problem facing much of the world is inadequate demand and the threat of deflation. Would trade liberalization help on that front? No, not at all. True, to the extent that trade becomes easier, world exports would rise, which is a net plus for demand. But world imports would rise by exactly the same amount, which is a net minus. Or to put it a bit differently, trade liberalization would change the composition of world expenditure, with each country spending more on foreign goods and less on its own, but there’s no reason to think it would raise total spending; so this is not a short-term economic boost.
..
Maybe you still think we should do this. But trade agreements as your top economic priority? Really? That’s so bizarre that it should make you wonder why, exactly, the likes of Tom Donohue want these deals. And you have to suspect that the reason is that some of his important clients think that the non-trade aspects of the deals — stuff like intellectual property protection — will yield them a lot of monopoly rents.

There are reasons to support these deals and reasons to oppose them. But my immediate take is that when the US Chamber of Commerce makes a huge priority out of complicated deals, and offers an obviously false rationale, you should strongly suspect that there’s bad stuff hidden in the fine print.
33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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wow...now even Krugman is "suspicious" about the TPP (Original Post) antigop Jan 2015 OP
K & R !!! WillyT Jan 2015 #1
kick nt antigop Jan 2015 #2
k&r ND-Dem Jan 2015 #3
I've always hated the COC Populist_Prole Jan 2015 #4
I completely agree ... 1StrongBlackMan Jan 2015 #10
The CoC is the enemy. Period. druidity33 Jan 2015 #19
I'm nowhere near as optimistic Populist_Prole Jan 2015 #27
I hear you on all these points ... 1StrongBlackMan Jan 2015 #31
Suspicion maybe, but not opposition. Hoyt Jan 2015 #5
If it ain't much MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #13
Simple -- A GOOD AGREEMENT (and that's the key) is important to our future. Hoyt Jan 2015 #14
This bet? MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #15
Yes, that one in his FIRST term. Give it to charity. Hoyt Jan 2015 #16
And when did that term end? MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #17
2012. No proposal to slash SS. Hoyt Jan 2015 #18
Are you claiming there was no proposal to reduce Social Security benefits? MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #20
No proposal then, either. Pay up. If not charity, send it to Hillary for Prez. Hoyt Jan 2015 #22
The links I provided aren't sufficient evidence? MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #23
There are none so blind as those who will not see. Scuba Jan 2015 #28
What is your definition? How does it not include the chained CPI that was clearly proposed? TheKentuckian Jan 2015 #33
Stating the obvious to anyone who doesn't have an agenda BrotherIvan Jan 2015 #6
Krugman admitted he hadn't done enough homework before writing his first TPP piece. pa28 Jan 2015 #7
It's hard to do your homework when you don't have the textbook. bluedigger Jan 2015 #9
I'd say instead: He previously wrote about only on part of the picture. Jim Lane Jan 2015 #11
bookmark BlancheSplanchnik Jan 2015 #8
Urgent action email alert on TPP. proverbialwisdom Jan 2015 #12
The CoC has a very clear agenda and it has nothing to do with promoting Rex Jan 2015 #21
Krugman hits it on the head with his comment on "monopoly rents." Faryn Balyncd Jan 2015 #24
+1000000 woo me with science Jan 2015 #29
+1 You nailed it. Enthusiast Jan 2015 #30
The Chamber has been pushing free trade agreements for years starroute Jan 2015 #25
That was pretty much the only argument that those who did not oppose the TPP had. liberal_at_heart Jan 2015 #26
K/R marmar Jan 2015 #32

Populist_Prole

(5,364 posts)
4. I've always hated the COC
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 01:49 PM
Jan 2015

For years and years they've been consistently not just pro-business ( as one could expect ) but they also project a contempt for the working class that is so utterly visceral.

As for Paul Krugman, he seems to be not so pro-trade as he used to be. His thing used to be he was pro-trade so as to bring the rest of the world up to our standards, making labor arbtitrage less attractive to businesses. I think he now realizes that'll likely never happen, and even if/when it does, it'll take several lifetimes and do lots of damage in the meantime.

Remember Keynes: "In the long run, we're all dead".

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
10. I completely agree ...
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 03:02 PM
Jan 2015

the CoC is decidedly anti-labor and completely dismissive of its host nation.

His thing used to be he was pro-trade so as to bring the rest of the world up to our standards, making labor arbtitrage less attractive to businesses.


This is why I am unwilling to take a position on the TPP (pro or con) ... trade deals can have that effect (at least, that's what I took out of my Econ course work) AND that IS found in the US government's negotiating objectives.

Will the US be successful? I don't know ... until the agreement is released, if agreement is ever had.

druidity33

(6,446 posts)
19. The CoC is the enemy. Period.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:38 PM
Jan 2015

As a Union member and a Co-op worker, they've always worked against my interests. Even as a community member. All the candidates, policies, initiatives they've supported, etc. I can't think of a single thing my county CoC has done that has ever benefited my community or the people who live there. It seems like their goal is to make more money for people who already have money.

sorry, but i love the shrug



Populist_Prole

(5,364 posts)
27. I'm nowhere near as optimistic
Sat Jan 24, 2015, 01:44 AM
Jan 2015
His thing used to be he was pro-trade so as to bring the rest of the world up to our standards, making labor arbitrage less attractive to businesses

I meant that as a canard free traders always use, and have used to "sell" them for the past 20-somewhat years.

It will not happen: For one thing there is the wide disparity between the two worlds. For another, even if if they do, it would take too long and would make for a de-facto ( yet another ) case of the US working class being martyrs of a sort, in the pursuit of global wage and living standards equalization. That's just wrong. The third and major reason is that the corporate interests that craft these FTAs do not want this to happen, as it undercuts rent-seeking.

You can be sure that while the possibility of 3rd-world living standards being raised is much delayed; the immediate payoff to corporate interests in the form of lower wages and no regulation is not lost on them: That's why they want these FTAs

As entrenched plutocrat interest control the process, nothing will change. As long as they are in control, I maintain "Free Trade" = Bad.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
31. I hear you on all these points ...
Sat Jan 24, 2015, 10:11 AM
Jan 2015

and largely agree ... "Free Trade" = Bad.

But my optimism lies in: 1) Trade Agreement WILL happen ... it is the system we live and labor within. Better to add labor arbitrage elements, than not. I particularly like the Collective Bargaining element the US has stated as an objective ... which leads to my second point of optimism ...

With, even minimal, improvement in the 3rd-world parties ... "Free Trade" will eventually lead to fair trade.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
5. Suspicion maybe, but not opposition.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 01:50 PM
Jan 2015

"I am in general a free trader; there is, I’d argue, a tendency on the part of some people with whom I agree on many issues to demonize trade agreements, to make them responsible for evils that have other causes.

And my take on both of the trade agreements currently under negotiation — Pacific and Atlantic — is that there’s much less there than meets the eye."

 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
13. If it ain't much
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 05:02 PM
Jan 2015

Then why is the President expending so much effort and political capital to make it happen?

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
14. Simple -- A GOOD AGREEMENT (and that's the key) is important to our future.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:14 PM
Jan 2015

Do you think he should just sit by and let the rest of the world come to a big trade agreement without us? You think we are screwed with the TPP, see what happens if we sit by and watch the world pass us by.

I think Krugman wrote this just for you: ". . . . . . there is, I’d argue, a tendency on the part of some people with whom I agree on many issues to demonize trade agreements, to make them responsible for evils that have other causes."

BTW, you never paid me for the bet we made several years ago when you said Obama was on the verge of gutting Social Security.

 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
15. This bet?
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:25 PM
Jan 2015
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=581438&mesg_id=581475

Nobody appoints the two most accomplished attackers of Social Security to run a "Deficit Commission" unless they... want to attack Social Security.

But let's put some skin into the game. If Obama does not propose slashing Social Security by the end of his current term of office, I'll send you $20 and loudly proclaim my loss on DU.

However, if Obama does propose slashing Social Security, you do the same.

Deal?


As to the TPP and TTIP... I don't see how they can be helpful, given the secrecy, leaked provisions, personnel, and the history of these things.
 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
20. Are you claiming there was no proposal to reduce Social Security benefits?
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:41 PM
Jan 2015

Or that there was, but it doesn't count as a "slash"?

BTW, his first term ended in 2013, not 2012.

 

MannyGoldstein

(34,589 posts)
23. The links I provided aren't sufficient evidence?
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:55 PM
Jan 2015

He proposed it several times, even made a deal with Boehner in 2011 IIRC, but Boehner reneged.

pa28

(6,145 posts)
7. Krugman admitted he hadn't done enough homework before writing his first TPP piece.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 02:07 PM
Jan 2015

Looks like he's getting the big picture now.

bluedigger

(17,086 posts)
9. It's hard to do your homework when you don't have the textbook.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 02:31 PM
Jan 2015

I think Krugman likes to get down in the weeds, and he's stuck looking across the fence.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
11. I'd say instead: He previously wrote about only on part of the picture.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 03:24 PM
Jan 2015

It's unfair to say "he hadn't done enough homework" because he'd done enough to support what he wrote: that these trade deals would not have a significant macroeconomic effect. He's reiterating that now, to rebut the contention that freer trade would increase employment.

The only change is that now he's broadening his scope to get into aspects other than macroeconomics. I hope this will be a valuable corrective for DUers who are pro-TPP (or at least anti-anti-TPP) and who were reading too much into Krugman's earlier statements.

proverbialwisdom

(4,959 posts)
12. Urgent action email alert on TPP.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 04:24 PM
Jan 2015
9:50 AM

Dear Fight for the Future member,

Urgent action needed to stop the Trans-Pacific Partnership censorship deal! Click here: https://cms.fightforthefuture.org/ronwyden/

It’s Friday. No one really wants to be working today, but something urgent has come up and we need to ask you to take action. TODAY. We've made so much progress together in the fight for net neutrality, but now there's another threat sneaking up on the Internet.

Oregon Senator Ron Wyden has long been a champion of Internet freedom causes, but now he’s saying he wants to negotiate with Republicans to make sure that so-called "Fast Track" legislation passes, which would then hastily ram through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a massive trade deal that we know contains extreme provisions that could lead to widespread Internet censorship.

The TPP threatens everything we care about, especially our interent freedom, but it can't move forward unless U.S. Congress passes Fast Track. Everything we are hearing says that a new version of Fast Track could be introduced as early as next week.

Senator Wyden needs to hear from you right now. Click here to tell him to be a hero to the Internet, not a traitor!

We need to make sure he feels the heat all day today. Let’s remind him who’s side he’s on: the Internet’s!

Thanks, have a great weekend,
-Evan from Fight for the Future

P.S. Senator Wyden is especially sensitive to what he sees on Twitter. Will you retweet this tweet? That would be a big help. Thanks!
 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
21. The CoC has a very clear agenda and it has nothing to do with promoting
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:45 PM
Jan 2015

business for the good of The People.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2010/10/05/121701/foreign-chamber-commerce/

The largest attack campaign against Democrats this fall is being waged by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a trade association organized as a 501(c)(6) that can raise and spend unlimited funds without ever disclosing any of its donors. The Chamber has promised to spend an unprecedented $75 million to defeat candidates like Jack Conway, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Jerry Brown, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), and Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). As of Sept. 15th, the Chamber had aired more than 8,000 ads on behalf of GOP Senate candidates alone, according to a study from the Wesleyan Media Project. The Chamber’s spending has dwarfed every other issue group and most political party candidate committee spending. A ThinkProgress investigation has found that the Chamber funds its political attack campaign out of its general account, which solicits foreign funding. And while the Chamber will likely assert it has internal controls, foreign money is fungible, permitting the Chamber to run its unprecedented attack campaign. According to legal experts consulted by ThinkProgress, the Chamber is likely skirting longstanding campaign finance law that bans the involvement of foreign corporations in American elections.

Faryn Balyncd

(5,125 posts)
24. Krugman hits it on the head with his comment on "monopoly rents."
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 06:59 PM
Jan 2015



Krugman has long maintained that there is very little in the way of actual trade barriers left to eliminate, and that the non-trade aspects that are being negotiated are the major aspects of the TPP.

While lowering tariffs and duties increase competition, the information that has been leaked about the TPP reports massive increase in intellectual property law which would have the effect of supporting corporate monopolies, drastically raising the already skyrocketing prices of drugs as one consequence, and further entrenching corporate interests by use of sovereign investor-state tribunals (exempt from appeal in the normal judicial system) in which corporations can defeat environmental, labor, safety and labeling laws which they feel limit their profits.

If the TPP were stripped of its provisions to further entrench corporate monopoly power through enhanced intellectual property law and its corporate coup "investor-state tribunals", there wouldn't be much left.

And that's why Krugman's position, even back in early 2014, has been:

"I am in general a free trader, but I’ll be undismayed and even a bit relieved if the T.P.P. just fades away."

When even free traders smell a rat in a so-called "free trade agreement", it is telling.









starroute

(12,977 posts)
25. The Chamber has been pushing free trade agreements for years
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 10:45 PM
Jan 2015

I don't think it's based on the extras like intellectual property clauses. They were very strongly behind CAFTA -- the Central America Free Trade Agreement -- back around 2006. They were pushing for it in Central America through groups like the American Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce, and they were connected with astroturf lobbying for it here.

I think they just see these agreement as a way of knocking down local regulations and giving American corporations a free hand. And though it's been a while and I don't recall the details clearly, my recollection is that CAFTA was of particular interests to American pharmaceutical companies that saw the tropical rain forests as a ready source of drugs to exploit.

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
26. That was pretty much the only argument that those who did not oppose the TPP had.
Fri Jan 23, 2015, 11:39 PM
Jan 2015

Now what excuse will DU use for Obama supporting the TPP?

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