General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forumswow...now even Krugman is "suspicious" about the TPP
Why?
Because "trade" is the #1 priority of the US Chamber of Commerce.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/suspicious-nonsense-on-trade-agreements/
This is absurd, and disturbing.
Think about it. The immediate problem facing much of the world is inadequate demand and the threat of deflation. Would trade liberalization help on that front? No, not at all. True, to the extent that trade becomes easier, world exports would rise, which is a net plus for demand. But world imports would rise by exactly the same amount, which is a net minus. Or to put it a bit differently, trade liberalization would change the composition of world expenditure, with each country spending more on foreign goods and less on its own, but theres no reason to think it would raise total spending; so this is not a short-term economic boost.
..
Maybe you still think we should do this. But trade agreements as your top economic priority? Really? Thats so bizarre that it should make you wonder why, exactly, the likes of Tom Donohue want these deals. And you have to suspect that the reason is that some of his important clients think that the non-trade aspects of the deals stuff like intellectual property protection will yield them a lot of monopoly rents.
There are reasons to support these deals and reasons to oppose them. But my immediate take is that when the US Chamber of Commerce makes a huge priority out of complicated deals, and offers an obviously false rationale, you should strongly suspect that theres bad stuff hidden in the fine print.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)antigop
(12,778 posts)Populist_Prole
(5,364 posts)For years and years they've been consistently not just pro-business ( as one could expect ) but they also project a contempt for the working class that is so utterly visceral.
As for Paul Krugman, he seems to be not so pro-trade as he used to be. His thing used to be he was pro-trade so as to bring the rest of the world up to our standards, making labor arbtitrage less attractive to businesses. I think he now realizes that'll likely never happen, and even if/when it does, it'll take several lifetimes and do lots of damage in the meantime.
Remember Keynes: "In the long run, we're all dead".
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)the CoC is decidedly anti-labor and completely dismissive of its host nation.
This is why I am unwilling to take a position on the TPP (pro or con) ... trade deals can have that effect (at least, that's what I took out of my Econ course work) AND that IS found in the US government's negotiating objectives.
Will the US be successful? I don't know ... until the agreement is released, if agreement is ever had.
druidity33
(6,446 posts)As a Union member and a Co-op worker, they've always worked against my interests. Even as a community member. All the candidates, policies, initiatives they've supported, etc. I can't think of a single thing my county CoC has done that has ever benefited my community or the people who live there. It seems like their goal is to make more money for people who already have money.
sorry, but i love the shrug
Populist_Prole
(5,364 posts)I meant that as a canard free traders always use, and have used to "sell" them for the past 20-somewhat years.
It will not happen: For one thing there is the wide disparity between the two worlds. For another, even if if they do, it would take too long and would make for a de-facto ( yet another ) case of the US working class being martyrs of a sort, in the pursuit of global wage and living standards equalization. That's just wrong. The third and major reason is that the corporate interests that craft these FTAs do not want this to happen, as it undercuts rent-seeking.
You can be sure that while the possibility of 3rd-world living standards being raised is much delayed; the immediate payoff to corporate interests in the form of lower wages and no regulation is not lost on them: That's why they want these FTAs
As entrenched plutocrat interest control the process, nothing will change. As long as they are in control, I maintain "Free Trade" = Bad.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and largely agree ... "Free Trade" = Bad.
But my optimism lies in: 1) Trade Agreement WILL happen ... it is the system we live and labor within. Better to add labor arbitrage elements, than not. I particularly like the Collective Bargaining element the US has stated as an objective ... which leads to my second point of optimism ...
With, even minimal, improvement in the 3rd-world parties ... "Free Trade" will eventually lead to fair trade.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)"I am in general a free trader; there is, Id argue, a tendency on the part of some people with whom I agree on many issues to demonize trade agreements, to make them responsible for evils that have other causes.
And my take on both of the trade agreements currently under negotiation Pacific and Atlantic is that theres much less there than meets the eye."
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)Then why is the President expending so much effort and political capital to make it happen?
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Do you think he should just sit by and let the rest of the world come to a big trade agreement without us? You think we are screwed with the TPP, see what happens if we sit by and watch the world pass us by.
I think Krugman wrote this just for you: ". . . . . . there is, Id argue, a tendency on the part of some people with whom I agree on many issues to demonize trade agreements, to make them responsible for evils that have other causes."
BTW, you never paid me for the bet we made several years ago when you said Obama was on the verge of gutting Social Security.
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)But let's put some skin into the game. If Obama does not propose slashing Social Security by the end of his current term of office, I'll send you $20 and loudly proclaim my loss on DU.
However, if Obama does propose slashing Social Security, you do the same.
Deal?
As to the TPP and TTIP... I don't see how they can be helpful, given the secrecy, leaked provisions, personnel, and the history of these things.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/liberals-bash-obamas-fiscal-cliff-offer/blogEntry?id=18008248&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FPolitics%2Fobamas-chained-cpi-throws-off-pols-and-heres-how-it-works%2FblogEntry%3Fid%3D18938650%26ref%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252F
Etc.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)Or that there was, but it doesn't count as a "slash"?
BTW, his first term ended in 2013, not 2012.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)He proposed it several times, even made a deal with Boehner in 2011 IIRC, but Boehner reneged.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)TheKentuckian
(25,023 posts)BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)A little behind though.
pa28
(6,145 posts)Looks like he's getting the big picture now.
bluedigger
(17,086 posts)I think Krugman likes to get down in the weeds, and he's stuck looking across the fence.
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)It's unfair to say "he hadn't done enough homework" because he'd done enough to support what he wrote: that these trade deals would not have a significant macroeconomic effect. He's reiterating that now, to rebut the contention that freer trade would increase employment.
The only change is that now he's broadening his scope to get into aspects other than macroeconomics. I hope this will be a valuable corrective for DUers who are pro-TPP (or at least anti-anti-TPP) and who were reading too much into Krugman's earlier statements.
BlancheSplanchnik
(20,219 posts)To read later.
proverbialwisdom
(4,959 posts)Dear Fight for the Future member,
Urgent action needed to stop the Trans-Pacific Partnership censorship deal! Click here: https://cms.fightforthefuture.org/ronwyden/
Its Friday. No one really wants to be working today, but something urgent has come up and we need to ask you to take action. TODAY. We've made so much progress together in the fight for net neutrality, but now there's another threat sneaking up on the Internet.
Oregon Senator Ron Wyden has long been a champion of Internet freedom causes, but now hes saying he wants to negotiate with Republicans to make sure that so-called "Fast Track" legislation passes, which would then hastily ram through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a massive trade deal that we know contains extreme provisions that could lead to widespread Internet censorship.
The TPP threatens everything we care about, especially our interent freedom, but it can't move forward unless U.S. Congress passes Fast Track. Everything we are hearing says that a new version of Fast Track could be introduced as early as next week.
Senator Wyden needs to hear from you right now. Click here to tell him to be a hero to the Internet, not a traitor!
We need to make sure he feels the heat all day today. Lets remind him whos side hes on: the Internets!
Thanks, have a great weekend,
-Evan from Fight for the Future
P.S. Senator Wyden is especially sensitive to what he sees on Twitter. Will you retweet this tweet? That would be a big help. Thanks!
Rex
(65,616 posts)business for the good of The People.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2010/10/05/121701/foreign-chamber-commerce/
The largest attack campaign against Democrats this fall is being waged by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a trade association organized as a 501(c)(6) that can raise and spend unlimited funds without ever disclosing any of its donors. The Chamber has promised to spend an unprecedented $75 million to defeat candidates like Jack Conway, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Jerry Brown, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), and Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). As of Sept. 15th, the Chamber had aired more than 8,000 ads on behalf of GOP Senate candidates alone, according to a study from the Wesleyan Media Project. The Chambers spending has dwarfed every other issue group and most political party candidate committee spending. A ThinkProgress investigation has found that the Chamber funds its political attack campaign out of its general account, which solicits foreign funding. And while the Chamber will likely assert it has internal controls, foreign money is fungible, permitting the Chamber to run its unprecedented attack campaign. According to legal experts consulted by ThinkProgress, the Chamber is likely skirting longstanding campaign finance law that bans the involvement of foreign corporations in American elections.
Faryn Balyncd
(5,125 posts)Krugman has long maintained that there is very little in the way of actual trade barriers left to eliminate, and that the non-trade aspects that are being negotiated are the major aspects of the TPP.
While lowering tariffs and duties increase competition, the information that has been leaked about the TPP reports massive increase in intellectual property law which would have the effect of supporting corporate monopolies, drastically raising the already skyrocketing prices of drugs as one consequence, and further entrenching corporate interests by use of sovereign investor-state tribunals (exempt from appeal in the normal judicial system) in which corporations can defeat environmental, labor, safety and labeling laws which they feel limit their profits.
If the TPP were stripped of its provisions to further entrench corporate monopoly power through enhanced intellectual property law and its corporate coup "investor-state tribunals", there wouldn't be much left.
And that's why Krugman's position, even back in early 2014, has been:
"I am in general a free trader, but Ill be undismayed and even a bit relieved if the T.P.P. just fades away."
When even free traders smell a rat in a so-called "free trade agreement", it is telling.
woo me with science
(32,139 posts)Great post.
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)starroute
(12,977 posts)I don't think it's based on the extras like intellectual property clauses. They were very strongly behind CAFTA -- the Central America Free Trade Agreement -- back around 2006. They were pushing for it in Central America through groups like the American Costa Rican Chamber of Commerce, and they were connected with astroturf lobbying for it here.
I think they just see these agreement as a way of knocking down local regulations and giving American corporations a free hand. And though it's been a while and I don't recall the details clearly, my recollection is that CAFTA was of particular interests to American pharmaceutical companies that saw the tropical rain forests as a ready source of drugs to exploit.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Now what excuse will DU use for Obama supporting the TPP?