Category 5 Cyclone Pam Bearing Down on Island Nation of Vanuatu

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2933
<snip>
Residents of the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu are bracing for the impact of Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest tropical cyclones ever recorded in the waters east of Australia. Pam has rapidly intensified over the past two days and reached top sustained winds of 160 mph as of 2 pm EDT Thursday, making it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever recorded in the basin since satellite records began in 1970. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam had a central pressure of 918 mb at 2 pm EDT Thursday.


Figure 1. The eye of Cyclone Pam as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:11pm EDT March 11, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.


Figure 2. Track of all Category 5 storms in the South Pacific (east of 135°E) since satellite records began in 1970. The strongest tropical cyclones in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s records are Zoe (2002/2003) and Monica (2006), which topped out with 180 mph winds (thanks go to Phil Klotzback of CSU for this stat.) Image credit: Michael Lowry, TWC.

Satellite loops show that Pam is a huge and fearsome-looking storm, with a prominent 17-mile diameter eye and a very large area of intense eyewall thunderstorms with extremely cold cloud tops. These clouds have cold tops due to the fact that the strong updrafts in the eyewall are pushing the cloud tops to the base of the stratosphere. Sea surface temperatures are near 30°C (86°F), which is about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Warm waters extend to great depth beneath the cyclone, giving Pam a huge amount of heat energy to draw upon. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and is expected to be low to moderate though Friday morning, which may allow Pam to undergo additional intensification. The 2 pm EDT Thursday official intensity forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Pam topping out with 175 mph winds, which would make it the 3rd strongest storm on record in the waters east of Australia. Intense tropical cyclones like Pam typically undergo one or more eyewall replacement cycles, during which a second, outer eyewall forms and contracts inward toward the eye, choking off the old, inner eyewall. During this time, the cyclone's intensity typically weakens, and Pam will likely reach its peak intensity once one of these cycles begins. However, Thursday afternoon microwave satellite images showed no signs that Pam is ready for an eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles are not predictable by current forecast models.

Impacts of Pam
Pam is likely to be one of the most destructive natural disasters in Vanuatu's history. The storm will likely pass over or very close to the three small, southernmost islands of Vanuatu on Friday, and these islands will suffer extreme devastation if a direct hit occurs. These islands are Erromango (population 2,000), Tanna (pop 29,000) and Aneiytum (pop 900). The 12Z Thursday run of the usually-reliable European model shows a direct hit occurring on the more northerly island of Efate, the most populated island in Vanuatu (66,000), where the capital city of Port Vila is located. Even if the islands miss a direct hit by Category 4 - 5 eyewall winds, hurricane-force winds will extend out 40 miles from the center, and will likely cause heavy damage to all of these islands. Regardless of Pam's track, its waves will cause major coastal damage; the significant wave height of the storm was 44 feet at 2pm EDT Thursday. Storm surge is also a concern, as well as extreme flash flooding from Pam's torrential rains. After passing Vanuatu, Pam is likely to weaken significantly, but the storm may still be capable of bringing tropical storm-force winds to New Zealand on Sunday. High surf causing erosion and coastal damage will be the main threat from Pam to New Zealand, though.
Oops my team's Cricket World Cup match is in trouble-West Indies could be sent packing.



http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/south-pacific/2015/tropical-cyclone-Pam

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. Cyclone Pam 'sounds like a freight train'

Australian Kris Paras can hear Cyclone Pam from her hotel bathroom as she waits for the storm's eye to hit her.

The 41-year-old is one of 270,000 in Vanuatu who are bracing for the category 5 cyclone, which local media reports say has already killed a few people in outer islands.

'It sounds like a relentless freight train,' Ms Paras told AAP on Friday night.
...

'Thousands of families are living in makeshift, flimsy houses which will not withstand the immense winds and rain we're expecting. Families need to urgently evacuate to safe buildings or the results could be catastrophic.'

- See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/03/14/cyclone-pam--sounds-like-a-freight-train-.html#sthash.jGCfoD3B.dpuf

[malaise]

2. That's worse than the worst hurricane

in the Caribbean.
That's a disaster of epic proportions about to happen.
I wish them all the best.

[MiniMe]

3. I'm going to the South Pacific a week from Saturday

Hope everything has calmed down by then!

[malaise]

4. Hope so for your sake

[KamaAina]

5. Where?

The South Pacific is a big place. And Vanuatu is not exactly an air travel hub.

[MiniMe]

7. Moorea and Tahiti

Counting down the days.

[KamaAina]

8. Several time zones away

'Ia orana! (the local equivalent of "aloha" )

[MiniMe]

12. Good to know, thanks

[KamaAina]

6. My Mom's name is Pam, and she's, um, directionally challenged.

We joke that "Pam is map spelled backwards." So maybe this Pam will get lost, too.

[malaise]

9. This one will get lost after the destruction

Trust me

[panader0]

10. Take care locals--Vanuatu has several great surf spots.

[KamaAina]

11. Hopefully they're not dumb enough to go out surfing in it

like East Coasters do.

[Sheepshank]

13. now where exactly are they all supposed to go to find safe shelter?

options are pretty limited there.

[malaise]

14. Yep

They really have few options

[Ellipsis]

15. Cyclone Pam leaves trail of destruction in Pacific's Vanuatu

WELLNGTON, New Zealand (AP) — Winds from an extremely powerful cyclone that blew through the Pacific's Vanuatu archipelago were beginning to subside Saturday, revealing widespread destruction and unconfirmed reports of dozens of deaths.

Communication systems in many of the hard-hit outer islands remained down, meaning it could take some time before the full extent of the damage caused by Cyclone Pam is known.

Chloe Morrison, a World Vision emergency communications officer who is in Port Vila, said the capital's streets were littered with roofs blown from homes, uprooted trees and downed power lines. She said she's hearing reports of entire villages being destroyed in more remote areas.

She said there is no power or running water in the capital and that communication remains unreliable.

"It's still really quite dangerous outside. Most people are still hunkering down," she said. "The damage is quite extensive in Port Vila but there are so many more vulnerable islands. I can't even imagine what it's like in those vulnerable communities."

http://missoulian.com/news/world/asia/cyclone-pam-leaves-trail-of-destruction-in-pacific-s-vanuatu/article_a2ca70da-687e-5ec8-8896-feec5a607229.html

[malaise]

16. This will be very bad

I'll check the Kiwi and OZ sites later.

[Ellipsis]

18. over 330 kilometer winds (200mph+)

Entire villages just gone

[malaise]

19. It was not just powerful - it was huge

that would have covered several islands in our Caribbean and we never have hurricanes that intense.
Think about Gilbert in Jamaica and elsewhere and Andrew in Miami and then contemplate what they felt during Pam's peak strength.

Damn!!!

[lovemydog]

17. Update: it's weakened slightly to a top-end Category 4.

But Vanuatu will still get hit very hard. All the best to the people there. 155 mph winds. Wow.

Tropical Cyclone Pam has weakened slightly to a top-end Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 155 mph, according to the 2 pm EDT Friday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2935

[malaise]

20. Rachel is showing the first pictures

This is horrific

[lovemydog]

21. Oh man. My thoughts

& prayers go out to the people there.

[malaise]

22. From the Guardian - it's really bad

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/14/deaths-feared-as-cyclone-pam-crosses-vanuatu-and-heads-for-new-zealand

As winds dropped on Saturday afternoon with the cyclone’s passage, the extent of damage began to reveal itself. Communication systems in many of the hard-hit outer islands remained down. Red Cross Pacific regional head Aurelia Balpe told Agence France-Presse that in one southern part of Vanuatu, islanders packed into caves and other makeshift shelters as they resorted to “traditional coping strategies”.

Unicef spokeswoman Alice Clements described the cyclone as “15-30 minutes of absolute terror” for “everybody in this country” as it passed over.

“We have some very unconfirmed reports of casualties from the outer islands as well but we’re waiting to get official confirmation on those, which is very sad news if it’s true,” she told Radio New Zealand.

Save the Children’s Tom Skirrow, speaking from Port Vila, said: “The scene here this morning is complete devastation: houses are destroyed, trees are down, roads are blocked and people are wandering the streets looking for help.”