Public Opinion Final Israeli Election Polls, Potential Outcomes, And What It Means For Israel

[Fred Sanders]

http://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/polls/2015/03/16/final-israeli-election-polls-potential-outcomes-and-what-it-means-for-israel/


March 16, 2015 12:38 P.M.

"Final Israeli election polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party projected to win 4 seats fewer than the Zionist Union, headed up by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livini. Israeli law forbids media outlets from publishing further polling results prior to the election and, when averaged, Herzog’s leftist Zionist Union party is projected to win 25 seats juxtaposed to 21 for Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Polls Vs. Process

Though the polling trend shows a small but steady lead for the leftist challengers, neither Likud nor the Zionist Union will garner anywhere near the 61-seat majority of the 120-seat Parliament required to outright form a government. The real question is whether it will be Netanyahu or Herzog who will persuade enough third-party support to form a coalition that puts them at at least 61 votes.

That candidate will earn the approval of Israeli President Reuvin Rivlin, himself a Likud party member.

Netanyahu has been here before, sort of. In 2009, Livni, then the leader of the centrist Kadima party, won 28 seats to Likud’s 27. Yet, Netanyahu formed a majority coalition with his natural third-party allies. These built-in advantages again favor the prime minister, as he can tap smaller rightist and ultra-Orthodox parties for support."