Why I'm not too bothered by the results of the election in Israel.
On paper, there are - broadly speaking - two routes to peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians: peace through consent, and peace through external pressure.
One might think that a Herzog win would make the former more likely, and a Netanyahu win would make the latter more likely.
But actually, neither has any chance of happening under either leader.
Unlike Bibi, Herzog pays lip service to the establishment of a Palestinian state. But he's also committed to keeping the settlements, and has expressed opposition to dividing Jerusalem, so in practice there was very little chance he would allow the creation of a viable Palestinian state.
And while in a sane world Bibi's intransigence would make Israel an international pariah, in practice it's support from the USA is total carte blanche; there is no prospect of any meaningful pressure being placed upon it.
So the Palestinians are screwed either way, there is no chance of either a two-state or a one-state solution, the occupation will continue to expand, violence will continue, and not as much hung on the election as you might think.
It will have domestic consequences for Israel, and maybe for the USA if Bibi continues to weigh into US politics on the Republican side. But neither outcome would have lead to middle east peace.
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