The Hill: Why Hillary Can Win Big

[RiverLover]

OpEd: Brent Budowsky: Why Hillary can win big
The Hill
3/17/15

The most popular former president since the Second World War is John Kennedy. The most popular living former president is Bill Clinton. The most popular public figure in America is Pope Francis, whose favorable rating was a towering 78 percent in a recent Pew poll.

These three data points reveal the qualities most Americans want in their next president. Along with demographic and electoral state advantages Democrats posses in presidential elections, they explain why Hillary Clinton will enter the 2016 campaign in a powerful position — and with the possibility of winning a mandate victory that would dramatically change the way Washington works.

In just 20 months, as Clinton concludes her conversation with America that she will soon begin, Americans will gather in their living rooms to discuss who they should choose to lead the nation. They will not be discussing emails and servers. They will be discussing wages and incomes, prosperity and jobs, and who is most qualified to lift the American economy and protect American security.

If Clinton is elected in 2016, around the time of the Democratic National Convention in 2020, our first female president will lead a national celebration of the 100th anniversary of the ratification of the constitutional amendment that granted women the right to vote on Aug. 18, 1920....

http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/236031-why-hillary-can-win-big

*For the record, I don't agree with this OpEd. I think her popularity will nosedive as she campaigns. Many people like this guy believed she was a shoo-in in 2008 for the exact same reasons.

[ananda]

1. It does look good for Clinton.

I will vote for her if she's the nominee.

I will never not vote or vote Reep.

[Fred Sanders]

2. Just VOTE....vote for anyone but a christofascist who wants World War 3. It is not brain surgery.

Just do it.

[NYC_SKP]

27. Well first we need a primary with some progressives in the mix.

I wish they'd step up!

[OKNancy]

3. What blue states do you predict will turn red if HRC is the nominee?

[RiverLover]

4. I don't think she will be the nominee.

We'll see.

[OKNancy]

5. ROFL

[RiverLover]

6. Have fun down there.

[SidDithers]

7. Exactly...nt

Sid

[treestar]

8. Yes, you got no answer

Because the answer is clearly none.

[OKNancy]

12. Many people think in terms of a popular vote

not the electoral college. I get a laugh about some of the biggest detractors here on DU when I check where they live.
"I'm not voting for her no matter what" says someone from California or New York. Same goes for bright red states too.
I am smart enough to know my vote in Oklahoma will be symbolic only.

[Art_from_Ark]

26. My vote in Arkansas has always been symbolic

There has not been a competitive presidential race in the state since 1968.

If Hillary gets the nomination, the state might actually be competitive. But I would much prefer a candidate like Warren or Sanders. Even O'Malley is starting to sound interesting.

[still_one]

32. Mississippi (sarcasm)

[treestar]

9. 2008 is not comparable in that

there is no Barack Obama in the picture. Maybe she could not win against him, but she does not have to run against him now.

[Marr]

37. Oh right, because Obama was just electoral candy.

A black man with not one, but two names that recalled our biggest national bogeymen of the day. Can't judge a hyper-connected, hyper-funded political insider too harshly for losing to someone with such an easy ticket.

[treestar]

40. I don't see him that way

But as an especially fit-for-the-Presidency man with a very charismatic personality and a brilliant orator. Without that kind of person out there amongst the Democrats, Hillary may have a much easier time getting the nomination. Hillary did come in second, so it's possible that with only ordinary politicians to go against, she is number one in that group.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. In an America that is seeing rapid demographic changes such candidacies will be seen as the norm./NT

[Marr]

55. Are you denying that Obama had a steep demographic hill to climb in 2008? /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. It was an incredible achievement

But there was and is a whole "coalition of the ascendant" waiting to be tapped.

[geek tragedy]

10. No living person who is eligible to run in 2016 has received more presidential primary votes

than Hillary Clinton.

No one who is a possibility to run (i.e. not Gore, Poppy Bush, Dukakis, Romney, Kerry, or McCain) has received more votes for President in their lifetime than Clinton did in 2008's primary.
'
People focus on her weaknesses too much--while ignoring both her strengths and the weaknesses of any opponent she'll face.

[RiverLover]

11. Fact check

Q: Did Clinton win the popular vote?

A: Obama won more votes unless you count Michigan, where he wasn’t on the ballot.

FULL QUESTION

Did Hillary Clinton actually end up with more popular votes than Barack Obama? Given that there is some discussion on whether to count the popular votes of Michigan and Florida, as well as how to count caucus votes, who did end up with the higher count?

FULL ANSWER

After the primary season wrapped up on Tuesday, Clinton commended her supporters and claimed once again that she had won the popular vote: "Nearly 18 million of you cast your votes for our campaign, carrying the popular vote with more votes than any primary candidate in history."

Did she? Now that all the primaries and caucuses are over we can take one, final look.

Obama won more total votes than Clinton in the contests where they both appeared on the ballot. Clinton won the popular vote only if you count votes from Michigan, where Obama’s name did not appear on the ballot.

Any way you cut it, the candidates’ vote totals are within less than 1 percent of each other. Both candidates got roughly 18 million votes, but since four states don’t list official counts, the precise totals can’t be known.

The political Web site Real Clear Politics has an excellent tally, with links to official reports from state election authorities. Those show that even counting Clinton’s win in Florida, where the two were on the ballot but did not campaign due to the state’s violation of party rules, Obama beat Clinton in the popular vote by 41,622 votes – a small margin, only 0.1 percent. Obama’s margin grows to 151,844 votes, or 0.4 percent, when estimates are included for Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington, which did not release official totals of popular votes.

Only by counting Michigan, where Clinton’s name was on the ballot but Obama’s was not, can Clinton claim to have won more votes.

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/06/clinton-and-the-popular-vote/

[geek tragedy]

13. Obama is not eligible to run in 2016. Will edit my post title to make that clear nt

[RiverLover]

14. Nice try. No one has ANY primary votes for 2016 yet.

[Bluenorthwest]

24. Here's what matters from '08 primaries: Both Clinton and Obama individually got more votes in the

Primaries than the top three Republican Primary candidates got in their Primaries combined. This includes the winner McCain and second place McMitt. In 2012 primaries, Mitt got less votes than either Obama or Clinton got in '08.
I'm in Oregon, a State that went for Obama in a big noisy way. 70,000 people at a single rally. Even here, Hillary got 259,825 votes, 40.5%.
One thing I can tell you is that the negative campaigning does not go well here. Oregonians don't like to hear about why you despise some Democrat, they want to hear why you favor the other.
So. If we had a Sanders or Warren candidacy, Oregon would be very prone to vote for either of them. Oregon would not, however, enjoy or react well to negative attacks on other candidates intended to promote them.
It's something to consider now if you have serious intentions. Not that I think you do.

[brooklynite]

15. Point to an instance where her popularity "nose-dived"

The fact that Obama won the Primary says nothing about her popularity. It says that someone else was MORE popular. This time around, there isn't someone who is more popular.

[RiverLover]

16. Wow. Lets wait & watch the primaries to see about that.

I don't buy into the media spin.

[brooklynite]

34. Hillary Clinton's popularity over time (Gallup)

looking for the "nose dive" in 2008

[treestar]

42. IT's only gone up since then

And she hadn't been Sec. of State in 2008 - clearly her time in that office made her more popular.

[NYC_SKP]

17. BS Her favorables are falling, unfavorables rising, peaked in 2011. "Conversation with America" WTF

.
She'll consolidate the RW and divide the left, all she's got is name recognition, no chops for unions and working class folks, all words and very little action.

She's going to ruin our parties brand and, win or lose, help the Republicans by making us look like cheap phony fools.

Her numbers are not so strong, but the media loves her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. "She's going to ruin our parties brand."

The brand has one meaning to everyday working folks and one meaning to disaffected intellectuals or those that fancy themselves as one and there are a hell of a lot more people in the former group than the latter one.

[NYC_SKP]

21. "Conversation with America"? WTF? It's like a god damned Bathroom Tissue commercial.

I don't think she has an original idea, there isn't a word that comes out of her mouth that wasn't written by some ad man or woman after exhaustive focus groups being engaged.

Good grief.

Everyday working folks who study her past hate her guts because she doesn't give a fuck about them, she only loves her rich friends and getting lots of attention.

Here's what working folks want:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Working folks are too busy, errrrr, working than gazing at their navels

Working folks are too busy, errrrr, working than gazing at their navels and waxing eloquently or what they believe is eloquently about the foibles of the capitalist state.

[KoKo]

38. Well Stated..

[RiverLover]

20. + Millions!

DFA, WFA, MoveOn.org members, we all agree!!!

[android fan]

22. And the media is trying to start a horse race by throwing Clinton in

before even if she decides to run.

It'll also piss off the media very much if Clinton decides not to run so they have run out of GOP talking points.

Let's find someone fresh.. My vote is for no-one yet, but it is not going to go to R's, L's or I's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. The proposition that because someone lost one battle he or she will lose every succeeding battle.

The proposition that because someone lost one battle he or she will lose every succeeding battle doesn't strike me as convincing....

And almost to a one, every unbiased analyst said the Hillary Clinton who ended her campaign was much better than the one who started it.

[RiverLover]

23. Aren't you just a -little- ashamed to support someone who went to extraordinary lengths

to hide her communications as SoS, while accepting foreign donations to her charity & negotiating business deals with foreign countries?

She is the ONLY cabinet member to conduct ALL official state business on a private server. Ever.

Its despicable & shady & our Party is backing it up. Nothing to see here folks!

Its sickening. And those emails out there, the ones she wanted kept from public view, will be viewed to the public & its a grenade waiting to explode & destroy our chances of a Democratic President in 2017 if she is our nom.

This is not a proud moment for the Democratic party.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Next to my mom and girlfriend I hold no woman in higher esteem than Hillary Clinton...

Next to my mom and girlfriend I hold no woman in higher esteem than Hillary Clinton unless you want to include the Virgin Mary.

[Bluenorthwest]

31. About that 'lost one election so that means all will be lost' concept. In Liz Warren's Republican

days, St Ronnie of the Trickle ran against Ford in 1976, lost to Ford who then went on to lose to Carter. Nevertheless, the Warren Republicans managed to run St Ronnie again in 1980 and he won the nomination and the WH, was elected to the WH a second time by Warren and her Party even as Ronnie ignored the AIDS pandemic and loudly supported the Apartheid regime in South Africa. Reagan's vast popularity with his Party caused Warren and other Republicans to strongly back George HW Bush, VP to Ronnie who lost in '76, to become POTUS 41. George Bush.
So losing one election for St Ronnie did not stop the Republicans from trying again, so devoted were they to Ronnie's brilliant ideas about the markets. It sure paid off for Warren, who went in broke and left the GOP a millionaire many times over during an era where the middle class, the poor and Unions paid a price for that 1% greed like at no time since the Gilded Age.

[RiverLover]

36. "Elizabeth Warren Destroys Reaganomics in 1 minute"

At least she's fighting Trickle Down now, unlike "New Democrats" who in rhetoric put it down but capitulate to the rethugs that we have to give tax breaks to corporations or they won't give us jobs.

What is Hillary suggesting that will fight Trickle Down, I wonder?

More trade deals? More letting Big Banks not fail with taxpayer money? More not fining corporations who move production overseas & then sell their products back to the US?

[Thinkingabout]

54. Do you really think the email non scandal is a reason not to support someone?

It has a lot to do with Hillary's experience and ability to do the job of presidency. One has to have expertise in more than a few areas.

[NYC_SKP]

28. Clip: In which Hillary Clinton shares how she connects so well to everyday working folks:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. The CFR boogey man, ay

Here's a link to their membership list...Note the members whose name begins with Ken:


http://www.cfr.org/about/membership/roster.html?letter=K

[Proud Public Servant]

30. If you've been following Hillary on Twitter

You've seen an interesting evolution in messaging. She moved from the personal stuff she can't ever seem to sell well ("I'm a grandma!&quot to rehearsing her themes as SoS (nice but marginal in a campaign) to a full-throttled attack on the GOP congress and a tentative embrace of populist economic rhetoric. If that's where she settles -- on a campaign that's less about her, and more about progressive ideas and a relentless attack on the GOPs inability to govern -- she could have a pretty easy time of it. I can't see her doing better than Obama in 2012, but she could easily do as well.

[Man from Pickens]

35. The author's track record is abysmal

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/brent-budowsky

also he's been pulling for Hillary since at least 2012, and is not surprisingly also a big fan of John McCain

take with a pound of salt

[RiverLover]

39. That's hilarious (dark comedy). Thank you for the info!

These rethugs have infiltrated the Democratic Party and I'm sick of it.

Of course this is the authors background. What a con job they're pulling on us.

[Man from Pickens]

44. Did you notice?

Loves Hillary, loves McCain, and has a background working in intelligence before joining the media.

Amazing how often that combination comes up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Franklin Roosevelt created the Office Of Strategic Services which was the forerunner to the CIA.

Is your argument that our nation shouldn't have a intelligence agency or that a liberal can't be part of it?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. The author criticizes Bibi and Rudy and praises President Obama, according to your citation

He passes muster with any liberal without an axe to grind.

[Man from Pickens]

51. you didn't look very closely did you

Don't bother answering, it is unmistakable that you didn't.

For observers whom your comment might mislead:

Brent Budowsky: John McCain the patriot

http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/226721-brent-budowsky-john-mccain-the-patriot

As the Congress from hell prepares to adjourn and the Real Clear Politics summary of polls finds that 80 percent of Americans still view it with disrespect, I rise to praise Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and express the hope that he runs for reelection when his current term ends.

America is an even better place because McCain is a citizen of it. The U.S. Navy is an even better force because McCain served in it. The floor of the U.S. Senate is a more distinguished place because McCain walks on it.

When the Republican Senate opens for business next year, its leaders and members would be well advised to thoughtfully consider the patriotic call of the gentleman from Arizona for a Senate that respects diversity of opinion from both sides of the aisle.

excuse me while I vomit

other gems include:
http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/216098-brent-budowsky-why-hagan-wins-north-carolina (she lost)
http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/205537-brent-budowsky-clinton-can-win-45-states (yeah right name ONE southern state she wins)
http://thehill.com/opinion/brent-budowsky/211791-brent-budowsky-the-rise-of-southern-dems (we got crushed)

etc.

He's a PR flack for Hillary posing as a journalist. He may pass your personal litmus test, but the test of "does he get it right?" shows him to be a complete failure.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. So he is 90% pro Democratic and 10% pro Republican

That doesn't rise to my lofty standards as I'm incredibly biased but a 90/10 ratio does tilt to one side.

His punditry does seem to be lacking though.

[cali]

41. except , as people are constantly pointing out, she's not Bill Clinton

and I fail to see what the popularity of Pope Francis has to do with her "winning big".

this is a crappy article- and I agree; her popularity will go down as she campaigns.

I know this is a contentious thing to say but no, Hillary, you're not likeable... enough.

[RiverLover]

43. Contentious but true. /nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Nobody was more unlikeable than Nixon

Nobody was more unlikeable than Nixon and he owns the largest Popular Vote/Electoral College landslide in the history of the republic.

There is no substitute for persistence especially when married to persistence in the service of one goal.

[cali]

46. if there was not substitute for persistence than Harold Stassen would have

been a two term president.

And it can be argued that Nixon lost in 1960 because of the unlikablity factor. Beyond that, I think there are some key differences, starting with the fact that we're in a very different political environment, and that Hillary is a woman. I think there's (unfairly for sure) more precious on a woman to be "nice" and "likeable" than on a man.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Stassen was a fringe candidate...Anybody was going to look unfavorable compared to John Kennedy./NT

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

52. I want Bernie, but if he isnt the nominee I will vote for who HE votes for...

[KittyWampus]

57. Democrats don't ever get "mandates". Ever. The Republicans and the media

simply ignore things like that.