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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe 2014 US Elections Manipulated?
Last edited Tue Apr 21, 2015, 05:50 PM - Edit history (1)
Kathy Dopp has completed a statistical analysis of the 2014 mid-term elections and these are some of her findings:
"The probability that disparities between predicted and reported 2014 election gubernatorial and senatorial vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. Larger than average magnitude disparities are exhibited primarily in states conducting no or low-quality post-election audits. An analysis of Maryland's election data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome."
The states that showed a disparity between the predicted results and the actual results for both gubernatorial and senatorial contests which were sufficient to alter election outcomes were: MD, IL, FL, & KS. These four states all used "inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits." In NV, TN, NY, OH, and SD, the post-election disparities were "large but smaller than winning margins."
Living in KS, I can attest to the fact that many people here were very surprised at the final voting results.
Dopp's study (a pdf) can perhaps be accessed through the following, although I'm not quite sure how this is done:
SSRN-id2596336.pdf (There is also a longer version at: http://sssrn.com/abstract=2524093)
Earlier I posted Kathy's email and a responder suggested I might want to delete her email address because it could lead to spam sent her way. I have deleted it, and I hope she didn't receive any unwanted attention from the well-funded spammers who oppose free and fair elections, meaning "VERIFIABLE" and preferably always "audited" elections, when opti-scans are used and there's paper to use to cross check.
I speak for myself when I say I hope people do not give up on the dream of having verifiable elections once again in the US, but I suspect that Kathy agrees with me as do many at the DU.
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)We have come to expect the election results before we go to bed at night. Add to that, the media's desire to be the first network to declare a winner. Our electoral process is a fucked up and corrupted mess from top to bottom. It needs a complete overhaul.
DetlefK
(16,423 posts)When you move to a city, you have to register there. Among others, the administration automatically adds you to the local voter roll and has you deleted from your old voter roll.
2-4 weeks before the election you get a personalized notification sent to your address when and where you will get to vote. The notification is also your ID that you are eligible to vote.
Voting in Germany is ALWAYS on Sundays. Always.
The polls are open 9AM to 7PM. I prefer a nice Sunday-afternoon stroll with my vote.
The polling-volunteers receive your notification, cross-check it with their voter-roll and hand you the paper-ballot.
You get into a polling-booth and mark your choice with an ink-pen.
The votes are counted by hand. And anybody is free to stay and watch the volunteers actually count the votes.
The first exit-polls are available for the newscast at 7PM.
The results get updated live on TV every few minutes as the precincts report in. (Alternated with interviews, political commentary...)
The final results are available for the newscast at 8PM.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)We are to big. It would be an administrative nightmare.
Not true that it would be too cumbersome; it is the way we always used to do. The size of each precinct is what matters. That is where the count takes place. It is as do-able as counting the results of a larger high school election.
FourScore
(9,704 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)for EVERYTHING. The US is too big for that.
I call BS. Where there's a will, there's a way.
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)Ban electronic voting machines and do it exactly this way.
elehhhhna
(32,076 posts)Totally manually countable,.especially with 40% turnouts, tops.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Later, you could use a machine, but the ballot was still paper. I continue to opt for the pencil.
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)Also, the ballots are hand counted, even though they've been making us fill in those little ovals (like a standardized school test) instead of check marks -since 2010.
libtodeath
(2,888 posts)but they end up in the majority.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)Hogan's winning the election was a surprise to me, but then again Brown ran a lackluster campaign and the koch bros were beating the rain tax drum for Hogan.
elleng
(130,865 posts)Sure hope so, hoot.
hootinholler
(26,449 posts):greenbouncythingOjoy:
Here ya go!
elleng
(130,865 posts)'In an era that increasingly relies on paperless technology, Maryland is about to revert to using old-fashioned pen and paper to elect its leaders..
The Board of Public Works is expected to approve a $28 million contract Wednesday to replace Maryland's touch-screen voting system with machines that scan paper ballots, which voters will mark with a pen or pencil.
The contract comes more than seven years after the legislature decided the state should replace tens of thousands of touch screens deemed unreliable and susceptible to fraud.
Since then, arguments and tough budget times have repeatedly delayed efforts to replace the machines with a system that has a verifiable paper record.
"We, for a generation of elections, have had no paper trail," said Del. Jon Cardin, a Baltimore County Democrat and a leading proponent of scrapping the touch-screen system.
The new system is expected to be in place for the 2016 presidential election.
Maryland was among the first states to abandon paper balloting after the 2000 presidential election, when butterfly ballots and "hanging chads" in Florida threw the results of the contest into doubt for weeks.'
deutsey
(20,166 posts)Never trusted them because there is no transparency or ability to independently validate the results. I've always thought that if we had to use these machines there should at least be a separate paper trail.
After you press the touchscreen and cast your ballot, you get a receipt indicating how you voted and it gets slipped into a separate box. If there was the need for a recount or a discrepancy in the outcome, count the receipts.
newfie11
(8,159 posts)Now how do we stop it? The re pugs will fight change tooth and nail.
bbgrunt
(5,281 posts)Autumn
(45,055 posts)certainot
(9,090 posts)end the totally made up "hanging chad" problem, and reduce the chance dems counting votes in those back rooms were cheating, was a regular rw radio meme over many years.
and for the last decade ALEC has used the immigration issue, with RW radio constantly demonizing all brown people and especially the 'illegals' streaming across the border, to sell voter suppression/ID legislation successfully.
the problem is the ability of republicans to dominate the portion of radio airwaves used for talk.
you're right, they will fight any reform tooth and nail and the left needs to attack their best tool for doing that, the one that does the groundwork for everything they do - talk radio. they will scream FREE SPEECH! and "dems are cheating" from 1000 very loud coordinated radio stations at any hint of election reform, every time- it always works. and we're going the other way.
the left needs to attack to make up for the advantages they have with money and election fraud.
not only is talk radio their most important weapon it is very vulnerable. stop rush has pushed them way into debt (20 bil for clear channel i think), so they're having to subsidize it big time. and they'll keep doing that at least till 2016 and win a lot of elections because of it. it used to be practically free, paid for with advertising.
the left could completely destroy their talk radio advantage by pushing some of the 90 universities that broadcast sports on 270 limbaugh stations (many of the loudest in the country) to start honoring their mission statements and start looking for apolitical alternatives. advertisers would drop like flies just at the mention of it. if a few unis did that, others would be shamed into following. the publicity of student protests at those universities relative to all the issues those radio stations sell and have sold for 25 years will inhibit media and politicians from repeating the rw memes and talking points they sell.
without that monster radio advantage the left routinely ignores, they will lose big time across the board in 2016.
Phil1934
(49 posts)It's fascinating how the larger Wisconsin districts had more flipping where it would not be as noticed and the counties with paper machines showed no trend on their exit polls. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1210/S00105/rigged-elections-for-romney-michael-collins.htm and we suspect it's been happening since this 2004 "accident" one day before having to testify to Congress http://www.rawstory.com/news/2008/Killed_GOP_pilot_suspected_plane_had_1222.html
malaise
(268,925 posts)One day Rove will pay
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)They have been cheating for decades.
titaniumsalute
(4,742 posts)It seems the whole world focuses and cares during Presidential elections. There will be poll watchers, thousands of attorneys lined up to make sure is kosher, etc. But the midterms just seem to happen while people go on with their daily lives.
-none
(1,884 posts)But with the conflict of interest of the Secretary of State also being the Republican Party Chair in Kansas, and being on the record of doing everything to make sure Republicans won, what can you expect? The guy should be in prison for election fraud.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)That Secretarys of State can also serve as party chair. No conflict of interest, really?
Don't forget that Katherine Harris was Bush's campaign chair AND SOS in 2000.
-none
(1,884 posts)Republicans can do whatever it takes to win... and they often do. Kansas uses electronic voting machines.
Just before the election, polling indicated Davis was the favorite, yet Brownback won by a comfortable margin.
kracer20
(199 posts)I don't have enough posts to PM you, but you should remove her email from the posting. Great way to send lots of spam her way...
Thanks for the OP though!
brooklynite
(94,501 posts)None of the candidates, political officials or campaign managers I know thinks it happened.
I find the post-mortems I'VE heard (bland campaign messaging, a Senate that decided not to push critical legislation) to be far more convincing. Saying "we were robbed" is an easy out, because it removes any responsibility from us.
HelenWheels
(2,284 posts)always knew there was cheating with the machines. He even had a demonstration on how to do it.
brooklynite
(94,501 posts)He came in third in the Iowa caucus, which didn't use voting machines, and crashed an burned the next week in New Hampshire.
My point is that no political person WITH A STAKE IN THE OUTCOME has claimed that their race was affected by hacking.
Ford_Prefect
(7,886 posts)Many of them are afraid that to ask such questions implies the system is broken, perhaps as broken as those who fear it truly is have been saying. They cannot entertain the idea of some meaningful level of interference in voting processes. It is not in their political DNA to allow doubt of the system on such a scale.
They are not stupid as such but they have significant blind spots. That is according to my good friend who has testified in committee hearings on internet security and encryption. He said that there are some very intelligent people who cannot somehow see problems in front of their own noses...even when those problems are laid out clearly on a level the average TV audience could not ignore. He said it was a stunning and sobering revelation to realize that they simply could not acknowledge the degree of the problems or the potential impact. This was outside of any comment by those representatives who had a contrary agenda.
He said it was almost as if they were blinded by some religious level of belief that made it impossible for them to hear the simple truth...as if it had not been spoken out loud.
I have seen the same kind of thing during testimony that shaped the law we have regulating electronic voting in North Carolina. Intelligent responsible people who could not grasp the real possibilities of interference: eg. How simple and easy it is to do on some systems, and how to hide it. The strategies of misdirection, the levels of intervention that are possible, How few people it takes to do it, etc.
During WWII many people did not believe stories that thousands upon thousands of Jews, Gypsies and many others were being systematically murdered by the SS. The often repeated remark was that it simply could not be true. No civilized nation would allow it nor pursue large scale genocide as political policy. Post-war many continued their disbelief even after the Nazi's own films of these events were shown. The idea that civil law could be perverted on such a scale was one of their reasons to argue that it could not be true.
I know how some of the systems can be adjusted. I have seen the evidence and talked to the system engineers about back doors to the servers and to the internet itself. It is possible, and most likely has happened more often than we could ever prove...simply because it really is just that easy to do it if you have the skills, the access, and most importantly the political will to do it. Have no doubt that those who can distort the election system to suit their purposes will do so. They have never avoided the opportunity before.
It has been said elsewhere regarding other topics: If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck, you'd better start re-counting your chickens.
brooklynite
(94,501 posts)Convenient.....
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)the Dems published refuting the findings of Michael Charnin et al. (Remember our dear old TIA?).
In other words, what the fuck do they know about it?
tritsofme
(17,376 posts)I just couldn't say for certain.
That guy was so wacked out, IIRC, that he insisted the 1988 election was "stolen".
The sort of nonsense in this OP is right on par. Maybe he wrote it?
merrily
(45,251 posts)mariawr
(348 posts)Takket
(21,558 posts)I was following Israeli polls leading up to their election and with the exception of a small bump in the days after Bibi spoke to congress, NONE of the polls showed bibi's party winning the majority. All the polls showed them down by a seat or two, and they wound up winning by I think 4... and the world just goes "oh, its crazy, I guess EVERY poll was wrong" and nobody asks how that can be possible..........
GOP is no different.
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)This is where much of the manipulation is happening. Most people aren't paying attention to manipulations that have major bottom-up consequences, such as increased leverage in gerrymandering.
kairos12
(12,852 posts)the numbers. This was a trial run.
Hannahcares
(118 posts)For the 2012 election, much work was undertaken on historic patterns of vote "shifts" in larger districts in Republican primaries. Francois Chocette and others compiled excellent studies on these trends in the primaries. Jonathon Simon has also done work in this area. Will try to find the links. DU can be helpful here if we do our homework and keep this issue alive.
Botany
(70,489 posts)Scott Walker's "win" in his recall election never passed the smell test too.
In very red counties in N.W. Wisconsin more people signed recall petition then
voted for him in the 2010 election but still he won the recall election?
GoneFishin
(5,217 posts)Botany
(70,489 posts)..... that the quick call of the outcome really shocked me.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)have lovely, verifiable systems in place, big old turn out, ever increasing voter rolls and other States don't. The time between the elections is the perfect time to be seeking improvements in your State's voting systems. It's not the stuff of dreams but the product of work and organization.
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)This seems to be a selling point for these systems. How can they even be legal? And why would anyone attempt to develop such a system. As a retired IT guy I can tell you that every online system has a log file that keeps tabs on all online activity - no exceptions. And what kind of redundancy do these systems have in case of a crash. Do you think an ATM is inauditable? Why would a vote not be treated with the same respect as cash? There can only be one purpose for such a design and that would be to allow for the manipulation of an election.
Jerry442
(1,265 posts)...so they don't. Why, oh, why do we tolerate voting systems that don't have the same safeguards that ATMs have? Is it because we want unreliable voting?
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)it aint who votes ,,, its who counts the votes!
Response to Stevepol (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
ieoeja
(9,748 posts)Quinn (D) was easily defeated because, while an extremely competent governor, he is a hopelessly incompetent candidate. Raised Illinois income tax for the first time in decades without once bothering to point out that Illinois had the drop dead lowest income tax of the 42 states with an income tax.
How do you not bring up that fact?
Durbin (D) was easily re-elected.
I don't know about the other states. But it makes absolutely no sense for Illinois to be on this. There was no disparity between the predicted results and the actual results.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)She actually undertook this effort to confirm outcomes of strangeness reported by other investigators for WI voting for Walker.
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,833 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)January 2007 and January 2011. At the very least, they could have made Republicans go on record as voting against clean elections.'
They did not do either, though Waxman did hold a hearing on how easy it would be to rig voting machines. This after yelping about two stolen Presidential elections in a row.
If that doesn't speak volumes, maybe someone would rather not be spoken to. JMO
Guess it's easier for Democrats to go on and on about the big bad Republicans stealing elections than it is for Democrats to ask Democratic politicians, whose jobs frickin' depend on elections, why they choose to do nothing.
Ford_Prefect
(7,886 posts)system.
How do you run for election in a suspect voting system? Would it mean politicians who are elected or re-elected must be getting inside help? Would it mean some of those same politicians would have to give up the lucrative "sponsorships" and endorsements they currently enjoy?
The voters might not vote if they believed the system won't count the votes correctly. Worse yet they may insist the whole thing is changed. Imagine that?
See also # 49, (above).
merrily
(45,251 posts)They'd just rather claim, or hint, every election got stolen from them, hold hearings, and then do nothing about the alleged theft of elections.
Not buying it. It makes no sense.
Even if I buy it, who gave Democratic politicians the power to decide the Republicans stealing my vote is not worth doing anything about?
Ford_Prefect
(7,886 posts)Members on both sides need to believe in it for themselves and for their constituents, without reference to any particular election event. That seems rather obviously a cornerstone of faith in the local as well as national process.
There are whole histories of other methods for adjusting how the vote got tallied and who got counted long before the electronic option. That it happened in other eras and under other conditions argues that it works for those willing to use such methods to guarantee winning an election. Only the process has changed. Indeed we are seeing the return of many of those methods as embodied in the recent gerrymandering of voting districts under Republican legislatures and governors abetted by compromised state judiciaries. Which is not to mention the entire range of legalized dis-incentives regarding who is qualified to vote, when, where, and how.
We know it happened in Florida and Ohio previously. We suspect it has happened in other places and elections. I can understand that the math taken alone can seem not quite hard enough proof. That same math should be a warning that the system needs transparency and uniformity it currently lacks.
In no other western country is there a methodology of voting for national office so easy to manipulate.
Your contention is that it has not happened because you don't accept the evidence as sufficient. You see it as essentially circumstantial, if I understand your position.
My contention and that of others more qualified to speak is this: Show me irrefutable evidence that it cannot have happened. I would like to believe in the process as genuinely representative. A phrase from cold war days seems quite relevant to me here: Trust, but always verify.
The degree to which Republican operatives have gone to improve their chances of winning seems to make clear that IF such methods exist they would certainly be used to advantage.
merrily
(45,251 posts)You misread my post.
turbinetree
(24,695 posts)we should demand a pencil and paper ballot and to have it counted right then and there in the precinct along with a black board showing the tally in live format, or use the model that will be used in Oregon---mail in ballot.
This will eliminate the Diebold computers being used presently----corruption, especially when it comes to voting-----Hey, MD why is Andy Harris winning?
Martin Eden
(12,863 posts)NOT while casting ballots are prone to error in recording voter intent
NOT while voting results can be manupulated to alter outcomes
NOT while gerrymandering distorts the will of the people
NOT while voter suppression exists
NOT while elections and politicians are purchased by billionaires
We have the technology to accurately record voter intent and prevent results from being manipulated.
Why is this not being done?
Punx
(446 posts)Heres the thing, if the machines cant be audited, then any claim has as much merit as the results the machines produce. Id say polls just before, and exit polls the day of might be better indicators. If I say theres a 10% red shift to the results based on polling you can dismiss me, but you cant prove my claim is wrong that the machines miscounted because there is no paper trail.
Also theres this:
http://cjonline.com/news/2015-04-01/wichita-state-mathematician-sues-kris-kobach-sedgwick-county-elections-commisioner
Im constantly thankful that I live in Oregon. Yes the machines could be programmed to miscount the ballots, but as a former Auditor, I can tell you that a simple recount of a portion of the paper ballots would expose a miscount pretty readily.
sketchy
(458 posts)She has her own website bethclarkson.com where she talks about her lawsuit.
http://bethclarkson.com/
She's being ignored by national media, and not enough attention here yet either.
Punx
(446 posts)Will bookmark it and follow her efforts in the future. Very convenient that the tapes aren't available for audit.
To quote Thom Hartmann, "Voting is the beating heart of democracy." And we know the Republicans don't believe in Democracy."
sketchy
(458 posts)and welcome to DU!
eridani
(51,907 posts)--I don't like the fact that King County audits only county-wide issues and candidates. This is because they don't separate ballot batches by LD and city jurisdictions--all are mixed up together.
reddread
(6,896 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)Before all else we must restore integrity to our voting. Hand Counted Paper Ballots will be America's one and only salvation.
Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
niyad
(113,259 posts)blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)Fraudulent Elections
Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/fasci14chars.html
Beartracks
(12,809 posts)And these are the same people who hope you're not smart enough to realize that weather forecasting isn't just guesswork.
They would like you to think that election predictions can be way off. Just like they hope you assume your local weatherman is always wrong. And they ESPECIALLY hope you're okay with that the notion that election prediction is not a science, but is only "guessing." That way, when an election produces a "surprise" you will just shrug and say okay, back to the Kardashians.
======================
Indydem
(2,642 posts)President Dewey may have something to say about that.
kimbutgar
(21,130 posts)LongTomH
(8,636 posts)If her colleagues could check her work and possibly validate her conclusions, it would lend weight to the argument that elections in the US are being manipulated.
czarjak
(11,266 posts)American elections are rigged.
cliffjames991
(2 posts)captainarizona
(363 posts)I have written this before. It is simple ;but not easy. Take a precinct and mail a letter to every democrat and independent who voted. That is public recorded information and tell them your vote may have been flipped to the republicans. If you get back more people saying they voted democrat then votes cast then you know what hits the fan. They will make excuses but the publicity will be devastating as you can hold rallys and demonstrations if local democrats are not afraid. Call on congress to investigate ect. This will work if you want to put forth the effort and will scare vote stealing republican who knows what happens when their caught.
brooklynite
(94,501 posts)...and hasn't got a clue what the votes in their individual precinct "should" have been?
ellennelle
(614 posts)hands on the ballots, hands on the counting.
simple as that.
pass it on.
sketchy
(458 posts)This is Kris Kobach responding to Beth Clarkson's lawsuit. This article is from April 5, but I just saw it, and thought more exposure for it might be a good idea.
From the article by Bryan Lowry, Eagle Topeka bureau:
Secretary of State Kris Kobach said a researcher wanting to check the accuracy of voting machines from the November election missed her opportunity to do so before the votes were sealed.
For the first time, Kobach commented Friday on a lawsuit, in which he is a defendant, involving election results in Sedgwick County.
Kobach was added as a defendant Wednesday to a lawsuit brought in the Sedgwick County District Court by Beth Clarkson, the chief statistician for the National Institute for Aviation Research, who is seeking to study the accuracy of reported vote tallies in Sedgwick County. She emphasized that this activity is independent from her duties at the institute.
Clarkson, who is representing herself, wants to study the paper records from Sedgwick Countys electronic voting machines. She is suing Kobach and Sedgwick County Election Commissioner Tabitha Lehman for access to those records.
Read more here:
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17477357.html#storylink=cpy