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Thu May 7, 2015, 05:19 PM

Bernie doing surprisingly well in 1 on 1 matchup against Hillary

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bjly8n5o7b/econToplines.pdf

Page 17.

If an election for the Democratic nomination for president was going to be held now and
the only candidates were Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, would you vote for...
Asked only of registered voters

Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26%

80 replies, 4642 views

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Reply Bernie doing surprisingly well in 1 on 1 matchup against Hillary (Original post)
Dem2 May 2015 OP
Thinkingabout May 2015 #1
Dem2 May 2015 #2
Scootaloo May 2015 #16
Marr May 2015 #25
merrily May 2015 #61
woo me with science May 2015 #65
OKNancy May 2015 #3
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #6
Dem2 May 2015 #10
JaneyVee May 2015 #4
magical thyme May 2015 #7
merrily May 2015 #62
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #5
Dem2 May 2015 #8
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #11
cali May 2015 #13
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #17
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #19
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #24
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #28
LineLineLineLineLineLineLineReply *
L0oniX May 2015 #26
bluesbassman May 2015 #36
DisgustipatedinCA May 2015 #45
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #68
Dem2 May 2015 #21
Scootaloo May 2015 #33
nadinbrzezinski May 2015 #41
merrily May 2015 #63
DanTex May 2015 #9
progressoid May 2015 #12
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #18
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #20
progressoid May 2015 #27
Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #30
sabrina 1 May 2015 #79
Aerows May 2015 #56
progressoid May 2015 #60
thesquanderer May 2015 #73
MaggieD May 2015 #15
merrily May 2015 #64
MaggieD May 2015 #14
BrotherIvan May 2015 #22
MaggieD May 2015 #37
BrotherIvan May 2015 #46
MaggieD May 2015 #74
BrotherIvan May 2015 #75
thesquanderer May 2015 #72
L0oniX May 2015 #23
Scootaloo May 2015 #32
L0oniX May 2015 #34
Scootaloo May 2015 #35
BrotherIvan May 2015 #29
Motown_Johnny May 2015 #31
BainsBane May 2015 #38
Dem2 May 2015 #44
JHB May 2015 #39
nadinbrzezinski May 2015 #42
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #48
JHB May 2015 #54
Dem2 May 2015 #55
merrily May 2015 #66
Renew Deal May 2015 #40
Not water May 2015 #43
BrotherIvan May 2015 #47
merrily May 2015 #67
stillwaiting May 2015 #76
brooklynite May 2015 #49
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #50
Dem2 May 2015 #51
DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #52
Dem2 May 2015 #53
NYC_SKP May 2015 #57
Dem2 May 2015 #58
NYC_SKP May 2015 #59
woo me with science May 2015 #69
woo me with science May 2015 #70
hifiguy May 2015 #77
woo me with science May 2015 #80
AzDar May 2015 #71
sabrina 1 May 2015 #78

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:24 PM

1. Oh, good, so what would the story be if Bernie was 39%.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #1)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:27 PM

2. Shockingly well?

Gotta start somewhere.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #1)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:13 PM

16. What would the cereal be if the St. Bernard were on the moon?

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #16)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:43 PM

25. LOL, +1

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #16)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:26 AM

61. Fruit Loops.

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #16)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:34 AM

65. Bwah!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:27 PM

3. Republicans and Independents voted in the polls however

Scroll down to the bottom to see the breakdown.

Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%

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Response to OKNancy (Reply #3)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:34 PM

6. Thanks. I didn't notice that. From the o.p., I got the impression it was just Democrats. n/t

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Response to OKNancy (Reply #3)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:16 PM

10. Yes, complicating factor

Interesting that 26% said they would not vote - could be aligning with Republicans who are mostly not going to vote in the Democratic primary.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:29 PM

4. Would not vote doing surprisingly well against Bernie.

 

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #4)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:54 PM

7. hmmm... 28% of those polled were Republicans

 

26% wouldn't vote in the above matchup.

Think there might be a connection?

Considering that Hillary has been front and center on the national stage off and on for decades, and the "unbeatable" candidate since 2008 or so, Bernie's jump since announcing strikes me as significant. ymv, of course

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #4)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:29 AM

62. And, much more surprising, well against Hillary, too.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 05:31 PM

5. He's got his work cut out explaining the whole "Socialist" thingie.

54. Would you ever consider voting for a presidential candidate who is a Socialist?

Would consider voting for . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Would never vote for . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #5)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:14 PM

8. 28% of the respondents were Republicans

Lot of "not sure" going on in Democratic circles though.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #8)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:37 PM

11. Americans, whether Democrat or Republican, don't want to be Venezuela. I'm as sure of that as I am

that Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Bernie Sanders will never be elected President of this country.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #11)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:45 PM

13. yep. Americans are not terribly well informed

 

and yeah, Bernie won't be elected. I don't think Hillary will either. This 15 years of shoving her down our throats will not be good for Democrats or the country.

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Response to cali (Reply #13)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:17 PM

17. Your reply is one of the big problems with liberals and liberalism in general. You guys know what's

"good" for everyone, or at least that's the perception. Smugness, with a dash of know-it-all seems to be the order of the day for the Nader/Kucinich/Sanders faction. If Hillary is nominated, and there are no election shenanigans, she will be the first female POTUS. You heard it here first.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #17)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:29 PM

19. ...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #19)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:41 PM

24. I think this cartoon nails that superior attitude quite accurately. The smugness is a turnoff.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #24)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:44 PM

28. It reminds me of the old saw about the woman from the Upper East Side of Manhattan

It reminds me of the old saw about the woman from the Upper East Side of Manhattan who couldn't believe Richard Nixon was re-elected since all her friends voted for McGovern.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #19)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:43 PM

26. *

 

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #17)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:56 PM

36. And your reply is one the big problems with centrists and Third Way Dems.

You guys want to shove a corporate candidate down the country's throat and say "well at least they're not a Republican".

If that's the only option in the general election so be it, but at this point as a Liberal and Progressive I'm looking for a better option.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #17)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:32 PM

45. At the very least, your post confirms you're not a liberal

 

Lemonade from lemons and all that.

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Response to DisgustipatedinCA (Reply #45)

Fri May 8, 2015, 04:49 AM

68. I'm not a "DU" liberal. Big difference.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #11)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:33 PM

21. Surely the United States would not turn into Venezuela with a little more Socialism.

I know you didn't mean that literally, and that socialism is surely not going to be a winning argument in American politics any tie soon, but I like Bernie's form of socialism, it's more pragmatic than idealistic.

And I agree, none of those you mentioned has a snowball's chance in hell of being elected, including Bernie. But Bernie is the more interesting story right now and I enjoy seeing him have some success early in this race.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #11)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:51 PM

33. I don't see Maduro appearing on a ballot anywhere.

 

Is it code?

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #33)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:26 PM

41. Yes

 

The same doggie whistle I have been pointing to. Far left is just one form of it.

Oh and I see Maduro in a Venezuelan ballot, on the other hand Sanders is not qualified to run in that election.

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #11)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:30 AM

63. They seem fine with Scandinavia, though. So do Scandinavians.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:15 PM

9. Yes, only 3% behind "I would not vote." Remarkable.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #9)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:44 PM

12. 28% polled were Republicans.

19. Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Honest and trustworthy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Not honest and trustworthy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%



48. In general, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?

Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Very conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%


49. Are you registered to vote?
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Donít know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

52. If an election for the Republican nomination for president was going to be held now and
the only candidates were Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, would you vote for...

Asked only of registered voters
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%

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Response to progressoid (Reply #12)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:21 PM

18. If so many people describe themselves as "moderate" to "conservative", what makes liberals think....

they should have some outsized influence over the body politick? You routinely hear the term "Turd Way" bandied about here, and one can only assume it refers to moderate and conservative Dems. But if that demo outnumbers "liberal" & "very liberal" (significantly), how does the minority tell the majority what to do?

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #18)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:30 PM

20. In a totalitarian dystopia they would./NT

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Response to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #18)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:44 PM

27. One problem is getting people to realize that they are more liberal than they think.

The term 'liberal' has been been tarnished so people avoid it. But many studies have shown that Americans are more liberal than they think.

Once people understand that, they will see that the people they have chosen to represent them, may not actually represent them.

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Response to progressoid (Reply #27)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:47 PM

30. And there's the problem. Terminology, and he who assigns it, wins. "Liberal", like "Socialist" had

to evolve. The term "progressive" is supposed to be a replacement. With what does one replace the oft derided term..."Socialist"?

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Response to progressoid (Reply #27)

Fri May 8, 2015, 05:37 PM

79. The Third Way identifies as Liberal. Which is a shame, but I'm willing to leave them the title and

just use 'Democrat'. No Democrat would EVER try to Privatize SS, or cut benefits. THAT is the litmus test for me.

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Response to progressoid (Reply #12)

Thu May 7, 2015, 11:29 PM

56. How do you not know if you are registered to vote?

 

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Response to Aerows (Reply #56)

Fri May 8, 2015, 12:07 AM

60. No kidding.

I'm going to guess that if you don't even know if you are registered, you're probably not going to go out of your way to get to the polls.

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Response to progressoid (Reply #12)

Fri May 8, 2015, 02:52 PM

73. Wow... Sanders beat Jeb Bush!

Assuming that most of the "I would not vote" answers for either of them were from members of the other party, this implies that Sanders has more support among Dems than Bush has among Repubs.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #9)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:48 PM

15. Only 69% of those polled are registered voters

 

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Response to DanTex (Reply #9)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:33 AM

64. For his name recognition, lack of funds and short time campaiging for the nom, it is drop dead

stunning. Too bad you can't admit that.

He has not even rolled out yet.

She could not possibly have higher name recognition, more money or been campaigning longer. For her not to be absolutely annihilating him at this point is a jawdropper.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 06:47 PM

14. 39% would NEVER consider voting for a socialist

 

That's the key take away here.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #14)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:36 PM

22. That leaves 60% who might

Arithmetic

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Response to BrotherIvan (Reply #22)

Thu May 7, 2015, 08:53 PM

37. Nobody wins a presidential election

 

... when 39% of the public has ruled out even the possibility of voting for you before the campaign even starts.

Politics 101.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #37)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:41 PM

46. How many Republicans do you figure will vote for Hillary?

Do you think that 39% would not vote for her? Because I think that number is even higher. And with 39% not voting for him that still leaves 60%. That is what you call a m-a-j-o-r-i-t-y.

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Response to BrotherIvan (Reply #46)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:39 PM

74. By all means - you keep believing!

 

I'm just a political realist rather than idealist. To each their own.

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #74)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:41 PM

75. So math doesn't exist in your reality?

Good to know

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Response to MaggieD (Reply #37)

Fri May 8, 2015, 02:48 PM

72. Probably every presidential election starts with 39% not even considering one of the candidates.

Basically, the majority or Dems and Repubs don't consider the other party's nominee.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:41 PM

23. So not to be picky but where is the remaining 1%? LOL

 

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Response to L0oniX (Reply #23)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:49 PM

32. Vermin Supreme holdouts n/t

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #32)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:52 PM

34. I knew it ...he's back and skewing polls again...

 

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Response to L0oniX (Reply #34)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:53 PM

35. Well, "Skewed" is his middle name

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:45 PM

29. How many people refused to vote against an African American?

About the same as wouldn't vote for a socialist and likely the same people. You would think you needed 100% of the vote to win. Talk about low information voters.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 07:48 PM

31. I need to. see likely (D) primary voters polled

 

before I take these numbers seriously

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 08:56 PM

38. That's an impressive bump

in a short period of time. It's an Economist/You gov poll too. You should mention that in your OP so people can see it's a respected polling outfit.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #38)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:32 PM

44. I should have mentioned it was a Yougov poll

I realized that after I posted.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:12 PM

39. CNN poll, May 2007, for comparison...

5/4-6/07 (%)

Hillary Clinton: 41
Barack Obama: 27
John Edwards: 14
Bill Richardson: 6
Joe Biden: 3
Dennis Kucinich: 1
Christopher Dodd: 2
Mike Gravel: -
Unsure: 7

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm
Multiple polls listed, but they show comparable results for the given time period.

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Response to JHB (Reply #39)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:28 PM

42. Matches my field observation

 

Of excitement, yes.

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Response to JHB (Reply #39)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:45 PM

48. You are comparing apples and watermelons.

The original poster is posting a poll of all voters...You are citing a poll of just Democratic voters.


Heres' a link to current Democratic matchups:




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #48)

Thu May 7, 2015, 10:15 PM

54. What I'm doing is reminding people the primaries some NINE MONTHS away

I don't count myself as either a "Bernie supporter" or a "Hillary supporter". My views are probably closer to Sanders' than to Clinton's, but I think it would take a 9.0-on-the-Richter-scale groundswell for him to beat her in the primaries.

So let her beat him in the primaries. Frankly, I think it will make her a better candidate than she would be without it.


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Response to JHB (Reply #54)

Thu May 7, 2015, 11:19 PM

55. I like this post

thumbs up.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #48)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:36 AM

66. According to DU, his chances with only Dems are far better than they would be in the general.

The whole DU thing is funny to watch.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:21 PM

40. People that don't vote don't count

And it's not very close if you count voters.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:30 PM

43. It's a useless poll

 

There will never be a matchup between Bernie and Hillary where voters are "general population respondents" which is the sample used in the poll.

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Response to Not water (Reply #43)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:42 PM

47. Yes

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Response to Not water (Reply #43)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:38 AM

67. Not entirely useless to compare how two Democrats might do with the general population, that

being who votes in the general election.

Whether it is meaningful this far out is the bigger issue.

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Response to Not water (Reply #43)

Fri May 8, 2015, 03:58 PM

76. We're constantly told that Bernie will do WORSE in the general than the Democratic primary.

This poll, by a respected outfit, seems to indicate that this argument may not be correct.

Bernie is currently polling higher with the general population (and he's still VERY unknown) than he is within Democratic polls.

Bernie will be polling higher a few months from now than he is currently. How much higher is the question mark. I hope it's a hell of a lot.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:52 PM

49. So, this is a Poll that we SHOULD pay attention to?

As opposed to all the polls with Hillary ahead which were apparently only name recognition?

Boy, this is complicated.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #49)

Thu May 7, 2015, 09:53 PM

50. It presupposes HRC will be running against Bernie in the general election.

That's a bit odd...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #50)

Thu May 7, 2015, 10:02 PM

51. Democratic Nomination

It is just assuming that no other Democratic candidates get into the primary. The poll is not limited to Democrats, however.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #51)

Thu May 7, 2015, 10:08 PM

52. They are asking all voters what their preference is in a Democratic primary...

It's lacking as any kind of predictive tool since most primaries are closed and the Republicans have more than enough candidates to choose from.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #52)

Thu May 7, 2015, 10:15 PM

53. OK

I'm sure we could pick it apart all night

I have no stake in this poll obviously, I just posted it for informational purposes. Headline was borrowed from another source.

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #53)

Thu May 7, 2015, 11:30 PM

57. Pay no attention to the Clinton fans.

 

They mean well but are ardent supporters and unlikely to agree with our points of view.

I want to welcome you to the Democratic Underground!



NYC_SKP


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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #57)

Thu May 7, 2015, 11:34 PM

58. Thank you for the welcome!



I see you prefer candidates whose first name begins with the letter "B".

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Response to Dem2 (Reply #58)

Thu May 7, 2015, 11:35 PM

59. Yes, indeed!

 

"B" before "C"!

It's an exciting, and frightening, time we live in!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)


Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri May 8, 2015, 08:03 AM

70. Wow, and what is this? Day four only?



I hope he is being careful about his safety. He is directly challenging a criminally subverted, now-secret government very, very serious about protecting its power.

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Response to woo me with science (Reply #70)

Fri May 8, 2015, 05:05 PM

77. Jury results, woo.

 

I was juror number 5.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Nothing paranoid about it. I remember Paul Wellstone.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given


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Response to hifiguy (Reply #77)

Fri May 8, 2015, 09:07 PM

80. Thank you.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri May 8, 2015, 08:07 AM

71. Bernie!!

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Fri May 8, 2015, 05:26 PM

78. Wait a few months when his name is also a household word. That is amazing so soon

after he introduced himself to the public.

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