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Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:16 AM

Thanks to Nate Silver I just took a trip down memory lane with Peggy Noonan

....

But to the election. Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.

Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.

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There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us.

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I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled.

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Maybe that’s what the coming Romney moment is about: independents, conservatives, Republicans, even some Democrats, thinking: We can turn it around, we can work together, we can right this thing, and he can help.

LOL


Three year old Schadenfreude still tastes delicious.

Nate snarkily called someone Peggy Noonan and linked to this memorable piece.

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Reply Thanks to Nate Silver I just took a trip down memory lane with Peggy Noonan (Original post)
Capt. Obvious Aug 2015 OP
nichomachus Aug 2015 #1
underpants Aug 2015 #2

Response to Capt. Obvious (Original post)

Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:18 AM

1. And in 2007 at this time

Hillary Clinton was the clear leader -- by far -- in all the polls.

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Response to Capt. Obvious (Original post)

Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:25 AM

2. Ah yes the Republicans weighting their own polls with "enthusiasm"

I remember it well. They tried desperately to make Romney "the thing to do" and pull voters to him.

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