WaPo Fact Checks President's Claim That States With Most Gun Laws Tend To Have Fewest Gun Deaths

[TeddyR]

Washington Post fact checkers give two Pinocchio's to President Obama's claim that states with the most gun laws tend to have the fewest gun deaths, which means the statement included "significant omissions and/or exaggerations," although the author notes he waivered between two and three Pinocchio's, with three being in the "mostly false" category. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2015/10/05/obamas-claim-that-states-with-the-most-gun-laws-tend-to-have-the-fewest-gun-deaths/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b

In the article the WaPo explains that when you exclude suicides, which account for 60% of gun deaths, then there is a significant change in where a state might rank in the number of gun deaths per 100,000 people.

First, the WaPo notes that the data is "mixed" on whether stricter gun laws lead to fewer suicides:

Some might argue that it is wrong to exclude suicides from the data, as less access to guns might result in fewer suicides. The data on that is mixed. Gun-related suicides might decline, but studies have shown little connection between suicides and access to guns. A 2004 report published by the National Academy of Sciences concluded that “some gun control policies may reduce the number of gun suicides, but they have not yet been shown to reduce the overall risk of suicide in any population.”

Japan, for instance, has among the world’s most-restrictive gun-control regimes — and yet also has among the world’s highest suicide rates, almost double the U.S. suicide rate.

Second, once you exclude suicides:

Alaska, ranked 50th on the National Journal list, moved up to 25th place. Utah, 31st on the list, jumped to 8th place. Hawaii remains in 1st place, but the top six now include Vermont, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Iowa and Maine. Indeed, half of the 10 states with the lowest gun-death rates turn out to be states with less-restrictive gun laws.

Meanwhile, Maryland — a more urban state — fell from 15th place to 45th, even though it has very tough gun laws. Illinois dropped from 11th place to 38th, and New York fell from 3rd to 15th.

The WaPo concluded that:

While gun suicides are certainly a serious issue — and account for more than 60 percent of gun deaths — the evidence is mixed on whether restricting gun purchases would affect the overall suicide rate. In any case, the president’s policy proposals are aimed at mass shootings, not suicides.

In short, I, along with almost all of the people on DU, support toughening our gun laws to include UBCs and additional training. But stricter gun laws isn't the panacea it is made out to be, and in some states -- notably Maryland -- such laws have had little impact on gun violence.

[pipoman]

1. There will be no changes until those who wish for change

Quit concentrating on the constitutionally impossible.....like a federal UBC...it cannot happen without an amendment, and that will not be happening in any of our lifetimes.

As for your OP, maybe the president has learned not to parrot the lies of big gun control....virtually every time they come out with some claim it is a lie....they lie when the truth would be better for them....

[Lee-Lee]

2. Of course- because you need to just address violence- not only violence that use certain objects

If your goal is to reduce violence, focusing on the "guns" part of "gun violence" focuses on eliminating the guns, while leaving the violence.

Suicdal people will still be suicidal if they have a gun or not- at best you may slightly reduce the chances of a suicide attempt being successful. Instead of focusing on the guns, focus on care for those who may harm themselves, early intervention and community education to fight suicide no matter what form.

Likewise with violence- removing the guns and leaving the violent people just means they will be violent by other means. But if you focus on all the things that lead to and cause violence, instead of on implement used in violence, you address the real problem instead of just shifting it to a new means.

But both of those are far more complex and difficult than a simpleminded attack on guns, so most will default to the simple, yet foolish and ineffective, sound bite answer of gun control.

[Human101948]

6. Basically the "do nothing" because "stuff happens" approach...

Also foolish and ineffective.

[Lee-Lee]

12. That's not at all what I advocated

I am saying address the root causes of violence and violent behavior regardless of what form it's in and you will see all violence, including gun violence, drop.

That's a way more effective route than simply focusing on one single means people use to effect violence and leaving the same people out there still influenced to violent acts by the same root causes.

[Human101948]

3. Would Maryland's statistics be skewed by Baltimore?

From an article on MD laws which notes that circumstances in Baltimore exacerbate violence there,

Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research...examined data in Connecticut, which enacted a gun licensing law in 1995, and Missouri, which repealed a similar measure in 2007.

In Connecticut, gun-related homicides dropped 40 percent over the next decade, while non-firearm homicides remained unchanged, according to the researchers.

In Missouri, researchers found a 25 percent increase in firearm homicides and 14 percent increase in overall killings over the five years after that state's repeal of licensing and background check requirements.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-gun-violence-effort-20150930-story.html

[Lee-Lee]

5. You can't cherry pick and throw out the areas that skew results in a way you don't like

That would be like saying Illinois licensing for all gun owners is a great way to reduce crime as long as you pretend Chicago doesn't exist....

The stats you listed for both states are also pretty much in line with nationwide stars for the same years- compare the two states for the exact same period and not one state in one decade and one in another. They attribute the drop in CT to the new gun law, yet in fact the entire country saw a similar drop over those same years, so you can't credit the licensing law for that.

Illinois has had universal gun owner licensing for 40+ years. It seems to have little to no effect on crime at all.

[Human101948]

7. I wasn't trying disprove, I was wondering about distribution, but your Chicago analogy is apt...

But where do all those illegal guns come from I wonder?

Speaking of gun loving right wingers distorting statistics, another interesting story--

For one thing, the CDC data show that the big decline in gun homicides came between 1993 and 2000, which happens to coincide with the years Bill Clinton was president. While Clinton and his policies are hardly the only reason for this decline, his signing of tighter gun-control legislation makes him unpopular among the kinds of gun supporters who might have created this meme. By contrast, by framing the decline as happening over the past 12 years, the meme implies that George W. Bush -- a president much more friendly to gun-rights supporters -- can take some credit for the decline.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/jun/16/facebook-posts/viral-meme-says-gun-homicides-are-down-49-percent-/

[hughee99]

10. It also coincides with an economic boom.

Some of our candidates suggest one way to address crime is by addressing poverty, and perhaps the 90's is evidence that such a policy might be effective.

[Whiskeytide]

11. Nail hit.

From what I've read, there is an astounding correlation between economic prosperity and a reduction in societal violence and suicide rates. When people have economic security, they get along much better and suffer less depression.

[Human101948]

16. I'll second that!

The one percenters love high crime and low employment because they can use it to scare the rest of us into subservience and gather up all the loot.

[Lee-Lee]

20. Exactly- when you address the causes of violence it drops

Adressing the object used in a behavior doesn't eliminate the behavior, just slightly redirects it.

When you address the actual cause, you have real impact.

[mainer]

4. How can you exclude 60% of gun deaths?

Of course suicides by gun matter. It's long been known that when a man buys a gun, the one person that gun is most likely to kill is himself.

[pipoman]

8. The presence of a gun doesn't cause suicide and the absence

doesn't prevent it.

[Whiskeytide]

13. It's context.

If you're talking to a gun owner, the threat of external violence is what they're focused on. They are not afraid of depression creeping in and causing them to turn the gun on themselves, or of an accident because they see themselves as responsible. They are afraid of a criminal coming through a window or a government take over.

So - suicides definitely matter, but that statistic doesn't always resonate, depending on who you're talking to.

[hack89]

18. If the topic of conversation is mass shootings

then it makes sense.

[mainer]

19. The topic in the OP title is "Gun deaths." Not mass shootings.

So yes, suicidal gun deaths are relevant.

As are accidental gun deaths.

[hack89]

21. The OP is about Obama's comments which were directed at mass shootings

and other criminal gun violence.

[Justice]

9. There are multiple layers and solutions must come from all angles. No good data because NRA

lobbied for Congress to ban collection of data.

[NickB79]

14. It's also interesting that murders via firearm have fallen 50% in the past 25 years

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/05/07/181998015/rate-of-u-s-gun-violence-has-fallen-since-1993-study-says

"Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49 percent lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation's population grew," according to the Pew study. "The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75 percent lower in 2011 than in 1993."

And more recently: http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/28/politics/fbi-crime-statistics-report-2014/

The FBI report shows a 0.2% decline nationwide in violent crimes in 2014, with more than 11 million arrests made by police for almost a half-million violent crimes.

The report says that in 2014 the U.S. recorded the fewest murders since 2009. Most other violent crimes, such as robbery, burglary, theft and arson have declined, while aggravated assaults and rapes, which now includes a broader definition, were on the rise in 2014.

[underpants]

15. The WaPo's info flies directly in the face if everything I've researched

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/02/gun_control_by_state_tougher_laws_mean_fewer_deaths.html


http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/03/07/gun-violence-study-chicago/1969227/

[TeddyR]

22. The WaPo cites some pretty reputable and neutral sources

And at least one of the articles you cite (Slate) is from a from the "Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence" which sounds a bit like an interested source instead of a neutral one and apparently, unlike the WaPo article, includes all gun deaths, including suicides. The point of the WaPo article as I read it is two-fold. First, there is no evidence that stricter gun laws impact suicide rates. Second, when you exclude suicides gun death rates, there is a significant difference in the data and many states that tout that their strict gun control laws -- like Maryland -- actually suffer some of the worst gun violence per 100k people in the country. I'm a regular reader of the WaPo, and it is largely a liberal publication with a decidedly pro-gun control slant. In fact, today's edition included at least two opinion pieces proposing stricter gun control laws. So I would be surprised if there were skewing the data to promote a pro-gun agenda.

[patsimp]

17. If you exclude anyone killed by bullets on American soil, the President is clearly wrong.

America is safer because of guns.

in fact, if you don't count people gunned down during week and only count weekends once a month and divide by 100,000, the gun deaths are surprising low.

sarcasm off.