The Problem With Using Chicago to Make the Case Against Gun Control

[marmar]

(Bloomberg) In the wake of Thursday’s mass shooting in Oregon, a familiar political pattern has emerged, with Democrats advocating for tougher gun laws and Republicans arguing that such legislation won't make a difference in curbing firearm deaths.

To make the latter point, two GOP presidential candidates, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and billionaire Donald Trump, have invoked Chicago in their arguments, pointing to that city’s tough gun laws and its high rates of gun violence as proof that the problem cannot be legislated away.

"You look at Chicago,” Trump said on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “It's got the toughest gun laws in the United States. You look at other places where they have gun laws that are very tough, they do generally speaking worse than anybody else."

.....(snip).....

Chicago's high rates of gun violence have been well-documented. In 2014, there were 2,587 shooting victims in in the city, according to the Chicago Tribune. The New York City Police Department recorded 1,381 victims in the same time period, and New York has around three times as many people as the Windy City.

But advocates for tougher restrictions say Trump’s and Christie’s arguments do not take into account two key features of the Chicago's gun landscape. The first is that, though it’s hard to get a gun in Chicago, it’s much easier to get one in the city’s immediate vicinity. The second feature is the city’s high level of gang activity, and that gangs are both adept at procuring guns illegally and prone to involvement in shooting incidents.

“I think that it’s more likely that if Chicago did not have tough gun laws they would have higher rates of gun violence than they do have,” said Philip Cook, a Duke public policy professor and economist who works with the University of Chicago Crime Lab, leading its multi-city underground gun market study. .......................(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-06/the-problem-with-using-chicago-to-make-the-case-against-gun-control

[TeamPooka]

1. K&R!

[Brickbat]

2. "The second feature is the city’s high level of gang activity, and that gangs are both adept at

procuring guns illegally and prone to involvement in shooting incidents."

It seems to me strong anti-violence and anti-gang initiatives would be important here as well. That would involve massive amounts of work in economic, educational and social realms. But it can be done -- and has been done, on smaller, targeted scales. The Little Village Gang Project, for example, reduced gang involvement, violent crimes, property crimes and drug activity.

[flamin lib]

3. A further problem with using Chicago as a reference for gun homicide is

that with a homicide rate of 15/100,000 it compares very favorably against Kansas City (almost no gun laws) at 22/100,000 and even better against New Orleans (can almost buy guns from a vending machine) at 57/100,000.

Even with the horrible gang and drug violence it is much safer than cities with lax gun laws.

[Lizzie Poppet]

6. "...it is much safer than cities with lax gun laws."

Well, sort of. It's safer than some cities with looser gun laws...but not most of them. From the most recent (2012) list I could quickly find, the worst ten US cities in terms of homicides-per-capita are:

Detroit 54.6
New Orleans 53.2
St. Louis 35.5
Baltimore 34.9
Newark 34.4
Oakland 31.8
Stockton 23.7
Kansas City 22.6
Philadelphia 21.5
Cleveland 21.3

(Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reports statistics)

Some of these cities are in high-control states, some aren't. Not much correlation here, although one would have to look far deeper, obviously, to come to any firm conclusion.

[beevul]

4. How does Houston compare with its 'loose gun laws'?

Philip Cook

That name sounds familiar for some reason.

[friendly_iconoclast]

14. Houston (the nearest city in size to Chicago), had a rate of 10.9/100K inhabitants in 2014

Corrected on edit

[beevul]

15. What was Chicagos rate? I looked but didn't see it. N/T

[friendly_iconoclast]

16. 15.08/100K, per the FBI:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-8/table-8-by-state/Table_8_Offenses_Known_to_Law_Enforcement_by_Illinois_by_City_2014.xls

[Eleanors38]

18. Murderin' bastards get caught in traffic.

[friendly_iconoclast]

20. One of our firearms-averse posters will be along shortly to explain the disparity to us

Or not...

[riderinthestorm]

5. K&R nt

[Martin Eden]

7. Indiana is right across the border

Gun shows, no questions asked.

[ileus]

9. That would only work until they filled out the 4473 and provided their Operators.

[SecularMotion]

13. Wrong again

Indiana Gun Show Sales of Firearms

Indiana does not require universal background checks. Twelve states have passed laws that do require universal background checks. Why does this matter? Why doesn’t Indiana support a common-sense requirement?

Gun shows are a popular venue for private sales in which unlicensed sellers can sell guns without background checks. “Brick & mortar” gun retailers are required to conduct background checks. There is no good reason to exempt any gun sellers at Indiana gun shows from being required to conduct a background check. And a vast majority of NRA members agree with us on this simple issue! Its the responsible thing to do.

In 2013, police in Chicago took 7,000 illegal guns off the streets – more than New York & Los Angeles combined. Many of these guns were purchased in Indiana from private sellers and transported to Chicago for resale. Illinois requires background checks on all sales including private sellers at gun shows. Indiana, which does not require background checks by private sellers, becomes a major source of illegal gun trafficking across state lines into Illinois. Indiana- We the citizens of Indiana can fix this problem!

The BATF has estimated that 5,000 gun shows are held annually in the US. For the 4th quarter of 2014, Indiana has 33 gun shows scheduled. One ATF study found that over 10,000 crime guns traced in a year were connected to gun shows – about 30% of all crime guns traced that year.

http://hcgv.org/?page_id=9

[friendly_iconoclast]

19. That doesn't explain why Houston, in gun-friendly Texas, has a murder rate 2/3rds that of CHI

It's also the nearest city in size to Chicago.

It ain't Chicago's guns, it's Chicagoans

[Tommy_Carcetti]

23. Thanks for pointing that out. nt

[Bluenorthwest]

10. Very good point, Murders per 100,000 in 2013: Chicago 15.5, Gary 68.5

I think that makes the case.

[ileus]

8. Why can't cities get a grip on their citizens...

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. The thing that's so disgusting about gunner "Chicago" tactics is that they don't give a fuck

about the people who actually live and die here.

If they betrayed even a modicum of respect and care for the people in the affected neighborhoods while they were talking-pointing the latest NRA horseshit, it would be one thing. But they have contempt for them, and don't care a single whit that they die in these numbers. The vast majority of gunners making "Chicago" arguments are disgusting fucking pigs. That there is a clear and transparent racist streak to their nonsense is also apparent.

[friendly_iconoclast]

17. Why don't anti-gunners care that the murder rate is higher than 'gun-friendly' Houston's?

The next nearest city in size had a murder rate ca. 2/3rds that of Chicago in 2014,
10.9 per 100,000 inhabitants vs 15.08/100,000.

You needn't take my word for it:


https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-8/table-8-by-state/Table_8_Offenses_Known_to_Law_Enforcement_by_Texas_by_City_2014.xls

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-8/table-8-by-state/Table_8_Offenses_Known_to_Law_Enforcement_by_Illinois_by_City_2014.xls

[Eleanors38]

21. Funny. When GD goes to Guns Discussion, controllers post schoolyard spectaculars, not...

the routine murders in many big cities. Hard fact.

So, it seems some lives are more equal than others when it comes to outrage, special posting privileges, and blame casting.

Yeah. Disgusting indeed.

[KamaAina]

12. Cicero, next door, sells many times more guns than would be expected

for its population of 80,000 or so.

[Eleanors38]

22. Ah, Bloomberg uncovers the mysteries and arcane principles of Prohibition.

Finally.